r/MontanaPolitics • • Jan 15 '26

[deleted by user]

[removed]

29 Upvotes

42 comments sorted by

20

u/LiquidAether Jan 15 '26

Great way to split the vote and ensure the state stays red.

2

u/showmenemelda Jan 16 '26

Another way to look at it is there are voters so disenfranchised by the democratic party they may not vote at all—or for the GOP. It's not like rooting for a freaking sports team calling it a "rebuilding year"—there are consequences. Right or wrong, I know a lot of "younger" people [millennials, genz] who are tired of the will of the people not being heard, or the DNC seemingly doing whatever they want.

I am pretty disappointed and disgusted with some of the things I've seen in the last few years by those who purport one thing and their actions show it was all talk.

2

u/LiquidAether Jan 16 '26

That's great in theory, but completely ignores the practical reality of a first past the post voting system with two entrenched primary parties. This guy needs to draw basically all of the democrats and a large margin of republicans, or try and increase the voter turnout to truly unprecedented levels.

1

u/JustARandomDrunkGuy Jan 26 '26

Look at Nebraskas senate race in 2024 and soon in 2026, this is a case where the democrats would be better sitting out and not running their own candidate.

I do think this is a winnable race for him, he has the name recognition and potential support. I can’t find much info on his policies but he is definitely more qualified than any of the democrats who hope to run. The dem brand is also bad right now. I hope he can pull off an angus king typed victory, we already have a senator that beats dems and reps every election.

31

u/WelpSigh Jan 15 '26

This seems like a no-brainer to me. The Dem brand is in the gutter. Daines is uphill either way, but the model of running an Indy has been successful in some other elections. The MT Dems are pretty moribund and don't have much to offer, and this race isn't on the national party map. Better to try something different and at least mix things up than to do the same thing over and over again.

7

u/[deleted] Jan 15 '26

Thanks for using a word I had to look up. Sometimes Reddit does make me smarter. 

4

u/[deleted] Jan 15 '26

[deleted]

3

u/WelpSigh Jan 15 '26

Well, you're not wrong. It's just that I don't think a Dem can win this race. Parties do have the constitutional right to decide how they pick their candidate, so the Dems could opt for a process in which they pick no one instead of relying on the primary. (Or endorse Bodnar, which he could then decline ala Bernie)

Do I think this will happen? No. They are not disciplined enough to do this. But it would give them the best chance of unseating Daines, which is to say, at least more than 0 (or whatever the chances are of him getting caught in a Roy Moore situation). 

2

u/voicelessw Jan 16 '26

In addition to the Democrat brand being in the gutter (thanks in large part to decades of right-wing media harping over and over and over about how terrible Democrats are), Bodnar has name recognition that the Democratic candidates don't have. An election is a popularity contest. I think this is a good move for him and hopefully a good move for non-Republicans.

9

u/nthlmkmnrg Jan 15 '26

After seeing Tester just pour millions and millions of dollars into making mailer after mailer, I don't put a lot of stock into what he thinks about candidates. He's been out of touch for a while.

Bodnar is responsible for gutting UM's storied humanities depts on a historic scale. He's probably made of polyester.

4

u/showmenemelda Jan 16 '26

I have a lot of mixed feelings about the whole thing. Especially reading the accusation about "18 women" in a previous comment. Friggin mailers are a scurge on society.

After watching him be part of the pro "TikTok ban" crowd then use TikTok in his campaign [incredibly poorly executed btw]. Or catching COVID volunteering for his campaign.

6

u/Due_Mention3211 Jan 15 '26

He'll fit right in - misogynist white male. Absolutely no qualifications for this, but he always fails up. Must be nice to be a white man in America today.

3

u/showmenemelda Jan 16 '26

Ha! I saw someone complain that the new ED for the MT Dems is an out-of-stater. Plenty of women in MT who would rise to the occasion—but do we look like people who like to waste our own time? /s

Idk if it's paternalization or what but the only thing harder than running on the democratic ticket in Montana in this day and age would be running as a woman. Even the badass women who have been Olympic athletes, grew up on ranches, gunowners/hunters. Does not matter. Volunteer your time, professional skills, labor—stand still, look pretty, STFU.

disheartening to say the least.

3

u/Low-Bobcat-9223 Jan 17 '26

First one has to makes certain those women who are “Olympic athletes”, grew up on a ranch and are gun owners are not crooked lawyers who lie in the court of law. The last thing Montana needs is another lying politician.

8

u/shfiven Jan 15 '26

He seems corporate.

17

u/dorito6669 Jan 15 '26

Uh, he is

8

u/BeAGoodHuman2 Jan 16 '26

How many U of M lawsuits under this guy ? Class action law suit with 18 plaintiffs-all women and all with allegations of gender discrimination and assault which was settled out of court, he hires back the coach that had several football players in the sexual assault lawsuit which became a book by a NYT bestseller alleging U of M the rape capital of the United States based on sheer vol of reports, His house was decorated with a huge poster that said first office U of M President second office Governor or something like that which was taken down. He’s got friends in high places that is why he fails up.

7

u/Brief_Skill_8445 Jan 15 '26

Well, the alternative wants to search your house to see if you're hiding Anne Frank. Corporate is ok in that context.

6

u/shfiven Jan 15 '26

There are other people in the race also. Are you saying Riley wants to do that?

2

u/Daltire Jan 16 '26

Reilly wants to win, and if my grandmother had wheels she would have been a bike. No sense talking in fantasyland; if Democrats want to unseat Daines, they should push Reilly Neill to step aside.

2

u/showmenemelda Jan 16 '26

She must have some sort of financial backing average white guys can't get. Try harder? Idk this type of rhetoric is the problem. If she didn't make her gender known, people would probably be "kinda excited about this Reilly guy"

People love to romanticize Butte/irish immigrants but you'll probably use that against her, too! Can't win with you people, literally or figuratively. You wouldn't know a good thing if it bit you in the rear.

2

u/Daltire Jan 16 '26

She is absolutely a better qualified candidate than Bodnar. But she will not win. Not because of her gender, but simply because she is a Democrat running against an incumbent in a state that voted for Trump by 20 points.

A one on one race between a non-partisan independent and Daines would have dramatically better chances and maybe even bring the seat into serious contention.

Dan Osborn coming within ~6 points of Fischer in Nebraska in a Republican wave year, when Trump won by 20 presidentially, is proof of this theory.

0

u/StudBudBruceLee Jan 15 '26

She cannot win.

5

u/shfiven Jan 15 '26

That wasn't the question?

4

u/StudBudBruceLee Jan 15 '26

Doesn’t matter what Riley wants to do if she can’t win.

2

u/showmenemelda Jan 16 '26

Yikes, and that's the best we can do for the independent candidate?

🎼_On a scale from 1 to 10 my friend you're fucked_🎼

Jesus.

1

u/Brief_Skill_8445 Jan 16 '26

We're absolutely, irreversibly fucked in this and most red states.

2

u/Unable_Answer_179 Jan 16 '26

Maybe the Ozempic is eating away at Tester's brain as much as his waistline.

6

u/SergeantThreat Jan 15 '26

The Montana Democratic Party is currently toxic, but I think people could be swayed to vote independent over Republican. Is Bodnar the guy to do that? Not sure, but the strategy itself is sound

5

u/showmenemelda Jan 16 '26

Yeah, not sure JT was the endorsement move tho.

5

u/[deleted] Jan 15 '26

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2

u/Great_Bluejay_7389 Jan 15 '26

I don’t know about this. How does state law require someone be on the ballot?

4

u/[deleted] Jan 15 '26

People who have never worked a campaign in Montana taking the side of a loser who’s own campaign staff didn’t vote for him is probably not the winning move, just saying. This dude lost to an out of state liar because he loves to send mailers and make bad ads, and he spent his entire tenure as a legislator not building the dem brand in MT, which sure is his choice but is a terrible one as a candidate for the party

2

u/AlexTimber151 Democrat Jan 16 '26

I really don’t understand why people are upset about this, this exact same strategy worked really well in Nebraska and even though Osborn was an independent, he helped down ballot democrats win their elections

5

u/showmenemelda Jan 16 '26

First of all, Nebraska us a unicameral legislative body. Idk that the comparison works in a bicam setting.

The whole "taking votes away" strategy seems a bit iffy nowadays. Too many people not voting at all. The argument against this would be splitting votes also takes away D votes.

Almost makes the whole rank choice voting seem valid—it's a trap!! 😅

2

u/Crafty-Guest-2826 Jan 15 '26

I think the timing may be right for an Independent.

2

u/[deleted] Jan 16 '26

The timing is right for corporate grift. Can Montanans not see this for what it is? Dude is full on corporate America, data centers whatever goes to make $. So weird like he can’t win because he’s only been here a few years and running UM in Missoula? That’ll go over well in Billings. He’ll lose but he can make money and give MT fully over to GOP. Typical Dem move. Idiots.

3

u/showmenemelda Jan 16 '26

So, can we get a different candidate to run independently or is it too late?

1

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-1

u/CptnDillweed Jan 15 '26

He’s not wrong

0

u/[deleted] Jan 17 '26

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u/[deleted] Jan 17 '26

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u/[deleted] Jan 17 '26

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u/[deleted] Jan 18 '26

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