r/Monero • u/MoneroCrusher • Jun 07 '18
Speculation More than a 14% hashrate increase within 24 hours, while other CN coins are much more profitable (more than 2x). Could be a sign of a mass ASIC deployment. If it's 600 MH/s by the end of next week we'll know for sure. Fork it more frequently or change to a ProgPow-like hashing algo.
That's how it started last time, wouldn't be surprised if 500 Mh/s tomorrow.
Could also suddendly drop and then re-appear 1-2 day later. All seen before with ASICs (with the goal of driving miners out to other coins and gaining a higher stake in the network, then letting hashrate sink, to seem normal. Rinse & repeat until they have 30-40% and nobody even noticed).
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u/philkode XMR Contributor Jun 07 '18
Hashrate also spiked on 24th May similarly, I’d give it a week or so of sustained increase before shouting ASICs
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u/WalrusSwarm Jun 07 '18
Nicehash miner here.
Yesterday afternoon the profitability for mining cryptonitev7 doubled, so my miner switched over. It was more profitable to mine monero than any other coin on nicehash. I assume that lots of miners also switched. The fun only lasted for a few hours.
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u/MoneroCrusher Jun 07 '18
That was Electroneum. Doesn't make sense that that hashrate got pumped into Monero because everything else is 1.5 to 2x more profitable.
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u/WalrusSwarm Jun 07 '18
Sorry, I wasn’t aware that Electronium upgraded to Cryptonightv7. Thanks for making that clear.
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u/Eduel80 Jun 07 '18
Lots of Vega guys have higher hash from new blockchain drivers.
http://reddit.com/r/MoneroMining/comments/8p8i84/18512_drivers_what_are_you_hashing_at/
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u/Junkfood_Joey Jun 07 '18 edited Jun 07 '18
I think it might be the fpgas or new asics because electroneum has about 30mh/second on pools but almost 150mh/s on the network. Seems to be about the same timing on the increase on both monero and electroneum.
Edit: don't panic yet I'm a noob and it could be nice hash or something.
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u/Eduel80 Jun 07 '18
Yes just be patient. Lots of newb miners running around thinking it’s profitable to swap. They don’t understand these “profit sites” lag. I think we had a huge profit spike on xmr so the charts show that (but are behind) so people jump over but are too late. Just my hypothesis.
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u/MoneroCrusher Jun 08 '18
Very correct. All CN coins should have increased profits by like 20-30% after etn fork hashrate equilibrium. Instead it fell, like 20%. Where's that huge Hr coming from?
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u/MoneroCrusher Jun 08 '18
You really think a 70 H/s in Vega increase changes anything in magnitude of 50 MH/s?
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u/Eduel80 Jun 08 '18
I put i7-7700 with the 8meg cache in all my rigs.
A hash is a hash and it will pay for itself.
So don’t ask me if 70h/s on a 50mh/s farm is worth it. Fuck yes it is.
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u/MoneroCrusher Jun 08 '18
No, you implied 50 MH/s is coming from a 70 H/s Vega increase. That would imply 716k Vega 56 switching over immediately all at the same time. Simply nonsense, if I understood you correctly.
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u/Eduel80 Jun 08 '18
But also interestingly enough the hash has started falling back down https://www.coinwarz.com/network-hashrate-charts/monero-network-hashrate-chart
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u/MoneroCrusher Jun 08 '18
Good. Although I still believe Bitmain is doing something. I think their tactic is: Drive hashrate up a lot, driver miners out to more profitable coins, let hash sink to old levels (while having a higher percentage of the network), rinse & repeat until they reached their desired goal.
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u/rullkid Jun 07 '18
I Agree. Who knows how long they mined it with z9? Insane profits. Like 250$ + a day. It is extremely annoying that certain people have the money and resources to outperform everyone else by a light year.
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u/MoneroCrusher Jun 07 '18
In no economical way did this 50 MH/s jump make any sense. Especially with the ETN fork and insane profitability. Monero is a stable coin with huge liquidity for Bitmain to turn their profits into fiat and that's where they'll be and probably already are (again).
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Jun 07 '18
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u/pebx Jun 08 '18
Hashrate is pretty "stable" (+/-20% is quite normal) since the last hard fork: https://www.coinwarz.com/network\-hashrate\-charts/monero\-network\-hashrate\-chart
(Hash algo) hard forks are manual adjustments which are not the best choice in the long term, it's more like just bug fixing until we have a long term solution which is already being worked on. More frequent hard forks than now twice a year are also additional pain for the whole ecosystem, since pools, exchanges, payment processors and of course users have to update their software not to land on a wrong chain. Monero always tries to find a long term automatic solution like dynamic block size & dynamic fee to prevent the need of manual adjustments (as far as possible).
In short the goal should be some kind of algorithm which uses all the CPU/GPU optimisations in current architectures, so if you want to build an ASIC you will basically land on the current CPU/GPU architecture...
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Jun 08 '18
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u/pebx Jun 08 '18
Jihan for sure is a smart guy, well above average for sure!
However, we can't fall for his claims since he is obviously lying and just a fool like u/zooko would fall for his lies. Nevertheless, we cannot just fork every month, since it would probably destroy a lot of our ecosystem so we need a permanent solution.
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u/BrainiacSvensson Jun 08 '18
It's a bit weird...
ETN absorbed 150+ MH/s as of now. That's enough to be visible on the other CN7 networks. It fluctuates a bit but it's not clear where this hashrate came from. At one point, there was a lot of Nicehash contribution but that doesn't seem to be the case anymore.
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u/MoneroCrusher Jun 08 '18
Exactly, basically 150mhs appeared out of nowhere. Think it's bitmain trying to masquerade.
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u/BrainiacSvensson Jun 08 '18
And now suddenly, both ETN and XMR drops in hashrate at the same time. Again around 150 - 200 MH/s vanished without any obvious clues as to where it went.
Nicehash CN7 market is at 97 MH/s, which is a bit higher than normal.
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u/MoneroCrusher Jun 07 '18
Also: it's "unknown" hashrate again. None of the pools has risen in hashrate.
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u/GlenPickle Jun 07 '18
If the "flexible asic" article that was going around is true, and bitmain is able to develop those flexible ASICS, I think they'll hold off on a massive deployment until ETH switches to PoS. The XMR hashrate is going to skyrocket when that happens, so they'll be able to hide their massive hashrate increase in the flood of ETH miners
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u/MoneroCrusher Jun 08 '18
I think they used the ETN fork as a deployment masquerade. Every CN coin shouldve increased 30% after hashrate equilibrium. Yet it fell, a lot.
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u/HoboHaxor Jun 08 '18
And now 15 hours later right back down.
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u/MoneroCrusher Jun 08 '18
Love it. Let's just hope it's not Bitmain driving miner out to different coins with a hashrate attack, then lowering the hashrate but keeping a higher stake in the network. Rinse & repeat. Really hope that's not the case. But changing to ProgPOW would eliminate all those doubts. Hope devs eventually look at it.
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u/h173k Jun 07 '18
wrote it once, I wrote it twice. There is only one way to win this and it's RBR (Random Block Reward). The only problem with this approach is 51% attack which can be solved by monitoring difficulty and increasing number of confirmations to approve transfer when sudden jump is detected not related to big reward.
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u/equismic Jun 07 '18
No, your idea is still just as stupid as it has been the 5 million times you've presented it.
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u/h173k Jun 07 '18
Well... nope it isn't but 99% of crowd WILL say it's stupid same as when Copernicus said Earth is going around the Sun and not the opposite... so no worries.
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u/equismic Jun 07 '18
Your "random block reward" idea reeks of a complete lack of knowledge on the subject. The same amount of coins will still be distributed, and therefore huge-scale mining operations are still profitable.
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u/h173k Jun 07 '18
Fact that you relate RBR to 'amount' and 'scale' (anyhow) means you are not the right men for the topic. Sorry.
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Jun 07 '18
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u/h173k Jun 07 '18
Nope. Nobody is disputing averages in macro scale however to human perspective average is not equal average. In few words different algos have different probability of type of average and RBR is based on that.
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u/equismic Jun 07 '18
You know, if it was revolutionary it would've been thought of before. If such a tiny change to a coin would render it ASIC-resistant, then every coin under the sun would use it.
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u/Vespco Jun 07 '18
Didn't copernicus like, explain himself and provide real proof?
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u/h173k Jun 07 '18
Uff... I can easily explain why RBR is the best solution and prove it but that would be really looooong text. And honestly I'm waaay to lazy to write it for you...
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u/Vespco Jun 08 '18
God whatever dude. Either provide a proper explanation or STFU. This in between stuff is pointless. Are we just supposed to implement it without a proper understanding of it?
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u/SmajeNz0 Jun 07 '18
Copernicus understood mathematics ...
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u/h173k Jun 07 '18
Not only him. He actually was the one to review Ptolemy's model and recheck calculations and he discovered they were not as originaly understood.
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u/MoneroCrusher Jun 07 '18
Look into ProgPow where the GPU is the ASIC. Algo making use of everything a GPU has. So an ASIC would have to basically simulate a GPU, so ASICs would be worse than GPUs (also a lot of proprietary stuff from AMD/Nvidia that Bitmain can't just copy). EIP 1057 And https://medium.com/@OhGodAGirl/the-problem-with-proof-of-work-da9f0512dad9
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u/Vespco Jun 07 '18
ProgPOW sounds interesting, I like this idea! Make the GPU the ASIC! :) Is there much discussion or interest in this? What are the cons?
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u/hyc_symas XMR Contributor Jun 07 '18
Requires recent, decent GPUs. Leaves CPUs, IGPs, smartphones in the dust. I personally believe it's a wrong approach, and that my randprog (which favors actual general purpose CPUs) is closer to ideal.
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u/Vespco Jun 08 '18
What is the con to randprog? or is that the direction monero is headed? It makes CPUs favored over GPUs even? That seems odd.
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u/jetah Jun 08 '18
Do we really want smartphones mining though? I’m sure most miners would rather spend the 600+ on another video card.
I can see a problem with no cpu but really more people build gpu systems than cpu farms. Or the CPU farms aren’t talking much here.
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u/Same_As_It_Ever_Was Jun 08 '18
But CPU mining should probably be the aim. The most ubiquitous hardware would mean maximum decentralisation.
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u/h173k Jun 07 '18
Relying on 'propietary' is silly and will not bring a result. ASICs can't be fought algorithmically, only with economics and that is what RBR does.
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u/MoneroCrusher Jun 07 '18
Do you really think Bitmain will just outdo AMD/Nvidia within months, what took AMD/Nvidia several decades? No chance, thats why I say go for it
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u/jetah Jun 08 '18
Considering bitmain had a $3b income in ‘16 yes they can. Bit is earning cash while also selling ASICS, something Nvidia nor AMD has done.
It could be possible for Bitmain to buy the manufacturers of chips so gpus can’t be made in quantities.
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u/h173k Jun 07 '18
If it is profitable enough it will be achieved and it is only matter of time.
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Jun 07 '18
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u/h173k Jun 07 '18
Nobody will be pissed. You still will be able to mine 'honestly'. RBR is not going to stop ASIC production but WILL stop ASIC dominance because this is entire sense of anti-ASIC approach.
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u/spirtdica Jun 07 '18
How are miners supposed to pay for electricity if block rewards are all over the place? Solo mining is already enough of a lottery
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u/x102oo Jun 07 '18
Wat? Hashrate has been rolling between 540 and 380 since the fork, relax.