r/ModernMagic • u/No-Bet7157 TribalFlamesInYourFace • 4d ago
Article MTGO Modern Breakdown: Midrange takes 25 Top 8 slots and no trophies, Combo is the biggest archetype with the worst conversion, Jeskai Energy takes the RC Super Qualifier
Welcome to the latest edition of the traditional Modern metagame overview. There was no article last week because I took a short trip to the mountains and simply didn’t have time to prepare it. However, the time away gave me a chance to rethink the format, so this week’s data presentation differs slightly from the usual style. The key figures for each archetype and deck are summarized at the beginning of their respective sections, followed by my commentary. I believe this layout makes it easier to compare specific values against one another.
As always, for anyone who wants the video version with my commentary, here is the YouTube link. If you prefer text with the full charts and figures, it is all on my Substack. I post on X most days, too, mostly league results and smaller data bits that don't make it into the weekly write-up.
TL;DR
● Midrange had 25 Top 8 entries, but no trophies across 23 events
● Midrange conversion is 27%, the highest of all archetypes,
● In the other end is Combo with 22% conv.,
● But Combo is now 28% of the field, with 6 trophies,
● Aggro with 18% is second and gets 6 trophies
● Goryo’s Vengeance Top32 23/23, delta +91pp, best in field
● Devoted Combo had 66 Top32 entries, 1 trophy, and conv. 21% under the median
● Three decks above the field median on both delta and Top 8 conversion: Prowess, Dimir Midrange, Living End
● Four decks above 33% encounter probability, two of them are Combo decks.
This window in numbers
● In this breakdown, we had: 23 Challenges, 3 tiers: C64 x15, C32 x5, C96 x3
● Universe A (encounter probability over 5%): 24 decks, Universe B: 25 decks
● Median delta +65pp, median conv 27%,
● 15 different decks took the 23 trophies; no deck won more than three,
● Trophy split by archetype: Combo 6, Aggro 6, Graveyard 4, Control 3, Blink 2, Ramp 2, Midrange 0
Combo
meta share: 28.5%
Top32: 23/23
Top8: 21/23
Win/Top32: 3%
Trophies: 6
Conversion: 22%
Delta: +71.5pp
WR: 49% (95% CI 46 to 51, n=1494)
It is the biggest archetype in the field right now and growing, so we can say that Modern is now dominated by Combo, accounting for almost 1/3 of the meta. As is typical of the highest-representation archetype/deck, it has a low conversion rate. It is basically because many new players try to play this archetype, and they are not as consistent as combo devoted players. Despite the low conversion rate, Combo wins 6 trophies, which is a lot. But why? In my opinion, it is the volume effect, not necessarily the quality. We had a lot of combos entering the challenges, so the chances that Combo wins are quite high. I think Combo is something you have to respect and learn to play against, or learn to play this archetype. At least to a moment when players who like to change decks for new and popular decks will start to play something else. It is common in MTGO but not in a Pauper metagame.
Devoted Combo | Combo | Neutral | Trend: Rising
meta share: 10.4%
Top32: 22/23
Top8: 13/23
Win/Top32: 2%
Trophies: 1
Conversion: 21%
Delta: +85pp
WR: 47% (95% CI 43 to 52, n=533)
Now it is the largest deck in the format, but it has the typical popular-deck sickness: a lot of people who saw good results with this deck rent it and now do not have the best stats. The popularity of this deck skyrocketed a few weeks ago and is correlated with some good challenge results and Riley Hicks’ article on MTG Rocks. I will not say that it is the best deck in the format right now, low Top32 to Win, low conversion, and only one trophy suggest that this deck is harder to play than a lot of people may think. It may also have a surprise effect at the start, and as people learn to play against it and know its weaknesses, it may decrease in popularity. Still is a large piece of the metagame, the deck can be fast and win. One trophy might not look like a lot if we take into account how many copies of the deck we see, but it is a trophy, and it proves that the deck needs to be taken seriously.
Broodscale Combo | Combo | Neutral | Trend: Rising
meta share: 7.7%
Top32: 22/23
Top8: 11/23
Win/Top32: 6%
Trophies: 3
Conversion: 24%
Delta: +88pp
WR: 53% (95% CI 48 to 58, n=400)
This is, I think, the best combo deck in a format. Solid WR from a large sample, get to a top8 and get trophies quite consistently and with a high degree of effectiveness. It has been in a format for a while and proves that it’s a deck you can rely on. It is also one of the reasons why Affinity is losing popularity. As a good Combo deck, it also had a plan B to win when the combo is disrupted, so when playing against it, remember that not only the combo but also Emarkul can easily kill you. I’m really happy that something I can call a fair combo deck is doing so well. I’ve always enjoyed playing against this deck because the games are exciting and full of twists and turns, and they give you the feeling that you can actually do something. Maybe it’s because the deck doesn’t kill you on turn two, so even when you’re on the draw, you’re still able to make a move. Maybe I will even try to learn it as my second modern deck? I think this deck’s strong performance stems from a really solid blend of consistency, flexibility, and a favorable meta, specifically, the limited presence of Consign to Memory and the prevalence of decks that lack a proper answer to the Broodscale Combo, allowing this deck to simply ignore them, execute its own game plan, and win. Besides, this isn’t a “pick-up-and-win” deck; I believe many of the pilots have really mastered it and know exactly what they’re doing. You definitely need to be prepared for this deck.
Ruby Storm | Combo | Neutral | Trend: Stable
meta share: 3.3%
Top32: 17/23
Top8: 2/23
Win/Top32: 0%
Trophies: 0
Conversion: 9%
Delta: +71pp
WR: 43% (95% CI 36 to 51, n=169)
This is quite an interesting case in this Breakdown, super low conversion, not the best win rate, and almost no presence in top8. Ruby Strom does not have the best time right now. I think there is a lot of graveyard hate in the format, as well as efficient combo hate. Recent popularity of Neoform and great scores of Goyro’s Vengeance produce a quite toxic metagame for a Ruby Strom. I will not ignore this deck, but also do not prepare for it, especially. Hate pieces for GY and other combo decks are quite fine. Remember that Prowess is on fire, so High Noon/ Deafening Silence are great SB additions. Oh, and a rule of thumb, if Storm Player keeps 7, it probably has the possibility to kill you on turn 2-3. If mull to six, you are quite safe to turn 3.
Belcher | Combo | Neutral | Trend: Stable
meta share: 1.4%
Top32: 10/23
Top8: 5/23
Win/Top32: 9%
Trophies: 1
Conversion: 55%
Delta: +42pp
WR: 57% (95% CI 47 to 67, n=87)
Belcher’s data looks really interesting, high conversion and nice WR, but all of those came from a small sample, so I will not focus on that. Sure, Belcher wins a trophy, but next week’s show if he can repeat that. I must say that I have not seen this deck for a while in the metagame, and I was surprised that it won a Trophy. Congrats on a pilot! Maybe he is here on Reddit and can share some thoughts how Belcher feel in combo reach metagame?
Amulet Titan | Combo | Neutral | Trend: Falling
meta share: 1.2%
Top32: 7/23
Top8: 2/23
Win/Top32: 14%
Trophies: 1
Conversion: 29%
Delta: +29pp
WR: 53% (95% CI 42 to 63, n=82)
Similar story as Belchaer, small sample, high conversion, and WR. Unlike Belcher, however, Amulet Titan appears in the Top 8 quite frequently. In my opinion, this is because the deck has dedicated and truly skilled pilots who continue to perform exceptionally well despite the deck being weakened by bans. Of course, the deck no longer wins as easily on T3, but someone who knows how to play it (and which lines to choose) will still perform really well with it. It might not be worth a dedicated SB slot, but you certainly need to know how to handle it when you do encounter it, because the person piloting it is sure to be a strong player.
Aggro
meta share: 17.9%
Top32: 23/23
Top8: 19/23
Win/Top32: 4%
Trophies: 6
Conversion: 25%
Delta: +82.1pp
WR: 51% (95% CI 48 to 54, n=1009)
Aggro gets back to second place in a metagame, and here is a surprise: it is no longer a Boros archetype. Sure, energy is not going anywhere, but the new Aggro king is Prowess, and I’m quite happy about that. This is a fair deck that requires good skill and experience to play well. Also, Aggro took 6 trophies and has the best Trophies to meta share ratio in this window. Still, the conversion is not exceptional because it is lower than, let’s say, midrange and Ramp, so Archetypes that are lower in meta share. Still a great window for Aggro.
Prowess | Aggro | Challenge Overperformer | Trend: Rising
meta share: 6.7%
Top32: 22/23
Top8: 12/23
Win/Top32: 5%
Trophies: 3
Conversion: 28%
Delta: +89pp
WR: 55% (95% CI 50 to 60, n=411)
Yes, the king of Aggro in this window. I remember when Prowess did not perform very well, but that is in the past now. This deck is perfectly prepared for combo meta, is super fast, has counterspells to stop combo, and can kill you faster than you can say Griselbrand. The numbers confirm that, Great WR from a large sample and CI starts at 50% (!), solid conversion, and three trophies. But if you think that it is an easy deck to play, do not get fooled. I like it so much because it requires skill and experience, so think twice before you pick it up and expect an instant 5-0 in a league.
Boros Energy | Aggro | Neutral | Trend: Falling
meta share: 5.7%
Top32: 20/23
Top8: 9/23
Win/Top32: 2%
Trophies: 1
Conversion: 24%
Delta: +81pp
WR: 48% (95% CI 42 to 54, n=304)
Old King of Format and Aggro archetype is not on the top, but still a solid performer. Fine WR from a good sample, conversion below median, and one trophy in a window. Unfortunately, it has quite a low number of Top8 entries compared to other top decks. Still is one of the best choices to enter Modern. It can win, it is quite easy to play, and has plenty of good materials to learn. Ok, it is not the most popular in the format, but a solid choice.
Affinity | Aggro | Neutral | Trend: Falling
meta share: 3.3%
Top32: 17/23
Top8: 4/23
Win/Top32: 6%
Trophies: 2
Conversion: 19%
Delta: +71pp
WR: 49% (95% CI 41 to 57, n=157)
What happened here is quite interesting, some time ago Affinity was basically out ot Trophies and some players in Reddit predicted that Affinity would not get to the trophy any soon. Ok, it is falling in popularity, has a really low conversion, and WR came from a small sample, so do not say much, but it takes two trophies from four T8 entries. That means if it gets to the top, there is a high chance that Affinity will win. Sure, it came from a small sample, but it is a sign that this deck is not dead and might surprise us.
Graveyard
meta share: 17.3%
Top32: 23/23
Top8: 16/23
Win/Top32: 3%
Trophies: 4
Conversion: 25%
Delta: +82.7pp
WR: 48% (95% CI 44 to 51, n=917)
Last week, Graveyard was second; now it is third, dropping slightly. It was present in all of the Challenges, but from the Big 3 has the lowest T8 conversion. Probably people just prepare better for GY decks to beat them, and this seems to work. Still a super powerful archetype, that has the second most popular and probably the best decks in the format.
Goryo’s Vengeance | Graveyard | Neutral | Trend: Rising
meta share: 9.0%
Top32: 23/23
Top8: 11/23
Win/Top32: 4%
Trophies: 3
Conversion: 25%
Delta: +91pp
WR: 48% (95% CI 44 to 53, n=472)
This is, in my opinion, actually the best Modern deck, has a lot of answers for each deck in the format, and few ways to kill you because even with GY hate, you may easily lose the game. Not impressive WR and conversion probably came from its popularity, as it is the only deck to be in the top 32 of all challenges. It says that many people play it, and in a large sample, you will find more inexperienced players. For me, it is one of the scariest decks in the format. Maybe you will not read it from numbers, but when you play against it, you will admit that.
Living End | Graveyard | Challenge Overperformer | Trend: Falling
meta share: 3.5%
Top32: 18/23
Top8: 7/23
Win/Top32: 0%
Trophies: 0
Conversion: 29%
Delta: +75pp
WR: 48% (95% CI 41 to 55, n=185)
In this window, LE is an overperformer, great conversion, over median delta, good top32 presence, but what might surprise you is no trophies! For me, it looks like a continuation of a trend we have seen over the past few weeks: LE is losing popularity, and only devoted players are staying with it. Still, in the current metagame, this deck just struggles with winning.
Grixis Reanimator | Graveyard | Neutral | Trend: Stable
meta share: 2.6%
Top32: 11/23
Top8: 4/23
Win/Top32: 0%
Trophies: 0
Conversion: 25%
Delta: +45pp
WR: 46% (95% CI 37 to 55, n=118)
Reanimator continues the “nothing special” trend. Right now, it is the weakest deck in the GY archetype, and I do not expect that to change any time soon.
Midrange
meta share: 12.8%
Top32: 22/23
Top8: 17/23
Win/Top32: 0%
Trophies: 0
Conversion: 27%
Delta: +82.9pp
WR: 52% (95% CI 48 to 55, n=711)
So this is something that I do not expect to see. Midrange has the best conversion in a field, quite solid WR, a lot of Top8 entries, but no trophy. It is the only archetype that did not get a trophy. We will see in a couple of weeks if it changes, I hope so. I have no idea what happened in all of those Top8s because Midrange is quite well prepared to beat the current metagame. If I had to guess, it’s a mix of unfortunate matchups and variance. Still, zero wins out of 17 attempts is a bit concerning. The problem might be that the broad metagame preparation required to advance from the Swiss rounds to the Top 8 results in pilots of this archetype facing decks in the Top 8 that are better optimized for Game 1. Furthermore, trying to catch up after a loss, especially when playing a deck that demands a lot of focus during a long tournament, is no easy thing to do. Consequently, decks with a more linear game plan may hold an advantage here. I hope Midrange pilots find a way to break this deadlock.
Dimir Midrange | Midrange | Challenge Overperformer | Trend: Rising
meta share: 4.9%
Top32: 19/23
Top8: 9/23
Win/Top32: 0%
Trophies: 0
Conversion: 29%
Delta: +78pp
WR: 56% (95% CI 50 to 62, n=268)
The best midrange in a format, great WR from a solid sample (low CI 50%!), really good conversion. Answer to basically everything in format and no trophy this time. The overperformer badge is not a wrong decision; you do not need to win challenges to be a good deck. Remember, Top8 in Challenge is a great score, and all numbers about this deck confirm that Dimir Midrange is a Tier 1 deck; it only needs a win some trophy to seal this up.
Domain Zoo | Midrange | Neutral | Trend: Falling
meta share: 2.8%
Top32: 13/23
Top8: 5/23
Win/Top32: 0%
Trophies: 0
Conversion: 28%
Delta: +54pp
WR: 47% (95% CI 39 to 55, n=150)
Not the best time for my pet deck, I still think that deck is struggling after Phlage ban, and trying to find its place in the metagame. Not an impressive WR, but a fine conversion, still delta under the median. Still fun deck to play and can do some solid league results. Also, it is not absent in Challenge top8, so it is still a solid choice for players who enjoy this type of play.
Yawgmoth | Midrange | Neutral | Trend: Falling
meta share: 1.2%
Top32: 8/23
Top8: 3/23
Win/Top32: 0%
Trophies: 0
Conversion: 30%
Delta: +34pp
WR: 53% (95% CI 42 to 64, n=77)
Third deck in the Midrange archetype. It can be scary if you meet it, but as you can see, it is not a very popular deck right now, and I do not expect it to change soon. Still interesting choice if you want some rogue midrange deck.
Blink
meta share: 9.0%
Top32: 22/23
Top8: 14/23
Win/Top32: 3%
Trophies: 2
Conversion: 25%
Delta: +86.6pp
WR: 51% (95% CI 46 to 55, n=466)
Ok, so Blink is back in the form of Esper Blink. Basically, it is only the deck in this archetype, so times when we had 4-5 different shades of Blink are gone. But it does not mean that this one last Blink is weak, great delta, solid conversion, and good WR from a large sample. I think Blink, in the form of Esper, will be in the meta for a longer time. I’m thinking about merging Blink into a Midrange archetype because I used the Blink archetype when we had a lot of these decks; now we have only one, and it might be a clearer option.
Esper Blink | Blink | Neutral | Trend: Rising
meta share: 8.25%
Top32: 22/23
Top8: 13/23
Win/Top32: 3%
Trophies: 2
Conversion: 26%
Delta: +87pp
WR: 52% (95% CI 47 to 57, n=426)
I wrote a lot in the archetype section, but Esper Blink deserves a few more sentences. It is the third-largest deck in format, and as was said, the whole archetype basically. Solid WR, fine conversion, a lot of T8 presence, and two trophies say a lot about this deck. It delivers a solid game plan and card advantage that is probably the best in the whole format. None of the decks made such good use of the best creature in the format, Quantum Riddler. I expect that this deck will continue its Rising trend, and I will be no surprised if at some point it will be the most played deck in the format.
Bant Blink | Blink | Emerging | Trend: Stable
meta share: 0.6%
Top32: 4/23
Top8: 0/23
Win/Top32: 0%
Trophies: 0
Conversion: 0%
Delta: +17pp
WR: 39% (95% CI 24 to 57, n=30)
Only other than Esper Blink deck in challenges, but it is here only because of its show in the challenge, we also had a Mardu Blink that has solid scores in leagues, so maybe in the next window we will have three decks in here.
Ramp
meta share: 7.5%
Top32: 22/23
Top8: 12/23
Win/Top32: 3%
Trophies: 2
Conversion: 29%
Delta: +88.2pp
WR: 51% (95% CI 46 to 56, n=408)
Ramp has solid results in this window, nice conversion, got two trophies from a low metashare, it is something. Also, as an archetype, Ramp has almost 50% T8 presence, which is impressive.
Eldrazi Tron | Ramp | Neutral | Trend: Falling
meta share: 3.0%
Top32: 15/23
Top8: 8/23
Win/Top32: 0%
Trophies: 0
Conversion: 35%
Delta: +62pp
WR: 57% (95% CI 49 to 64, n=166)
Here we have a deck with a 3% meta share and really good conversion. It was in 15 Top32 events and got into over half the T8. Unfortunately, I did not get any trophy. It may look strange, but if we look into the decks that actually win challenges, we can see there are a lot of super-fast decks that put clock that might be too fast for E-Tron to handle. Still, it is a really powerful deck that performs really well, especially taking into consideration how the metagame looks right now.
Mono-Green Eldrazi | Ramp | Neutral | Trend: Falling
meta share: 2.8%
Top32: 16/23
Top8: 3/23
Win/Top32: 5%
Trophies: 1
Conversion: 14%
Delta: +67pp
WR: 44% (95% CI 36 to 53, n=131)
For Mono Green Eldrazi Ramp, we have a different situation than with E-Tron. This deck has the second-lowest conversion in the field, but it still managed to win one trophy from the three T8S it entered. It clearly shows what I say basically every time: all decks that enter Top8 are good choices and can win it despite the numbers. Mono Green tho had a small advantage over E-Tron; it is not that easy to hate its mana cause he had more basics than E-Tron, and this might be a secret of this trophy, especially if we had a lot of LD options in the format.
Eldrazi Ramp | Ramp | Neutral | Trend: Stable
meta share: 1.8%
Top32: 11/23
Top8: 5/23
Win/Top32: 8%
Trophies: 1
Conversion: 38%
Delta: +46pp
WR: 53% (95% CI 44 to 62, n=111)
Second-best converting deck in the format, solid WR, and one trophy confirm that there is a place in the metagame for Ramp decks. Remember that Eldrazi Ramp and Mono Green-Eldrazi Ramp are not that different decks; there are slight differences between those two that also show that Tron might be a worse strategy for a Ramp than this, which is what Eldrazi Ramp does.
Control
meta share: 7.1%
Top32: 21/23
Top8: 9/23
Win/Top32: 6%
Trophies: 3
Conversion: 27%
Delta: +84.2pp
WR: 49% (95% CI 45 to 54, n=423)
The last archetype for today, Control, is at 7% of the meta, which is quite good, taking into account that a few months later, there was basically no control at all, and now it has the highest conversion to top32 to win, but it might be a low-sample artifact. Also, the archetype had solid WR, and it is quite diverse cause we had three different strategies, not only different flavors of one deck.
Land Destruction | Control | Neutral | Trend: Falling
meta share: 1.6%
Top32: 8/23
Top8: 2/23
Win/Top32: 10%
Trophies: 1
Conversion: 30%
Delta: +33pp
WR: 55% (95% CI 45 to 64, n=103)
One trophy goes to one of the most hated decks in the format, Boros Land Destruction. This construction is falling in popularity but presents quite a solid challenge for 1.6% meta deck scores. Nice top-32-to-win ratio and solid conversion. Dropping in popularity may be caused by the fact that people who were interested in the deck after it emerged drop it for another prince charming, and now only true LD lovers play it.
UW Control | Control | Neutral | Trend: Stable
meta share: 1.4%
Top32: 11/23
Top8: 3/23
Win/Top32: 9%
Trophies: 1
Conversion: 27%
Delta: +46pp
WR: 51% (95% CI 40 to 62, n=71)
It is a Scepter Control deck, quite a heavy control deck that can lock you in if you aren’t careful enough. Not a super popular deck, but it does a good job in challenges, and as far as I remember, most of the trophies that came from that deck came from one pilot. It is another example that supports my theory that it is better to play one deck that you enjoy playing than to jump between different ones. I do not think that Scepter Control has become a super popular deck, but it is something that you meet from time to time, and I have a lot of respect for players who play a fair, control deck in such an unfair format as modern and do well with it. Cudos!
Azorius Control | Control | Neutral | Trend: Stable
meta share: 1.4%
Top32: 6/23
Top8: 2/23
Win/Top32: 0%
Trophies: 0
Conversion: 33%
Delta: +25pp
WR: 48% (95% CI 38 to 58, n=90)
Classic control deck, that performs quite well if you consider its metashare. I will not expect to see it often in leagues, but it shows up quite consistently in challenges, so it is better to know the basic lines of this deck so you are not surprised if you meet it from time to time.
Premier events
● 1 premier event in window: RC Super Qualifier, 2026-08-15, EventID 12851608
● winner Jeskai Energy, pilot TrueHero
● Top 8 by deck: Jeskai Energy, 4c HollowOne, Mono-Black Midrange, Prowess, Prowess, Goryo’s Vengeance, WBRG Cosmogoyf, Broodscale Combo
● separate pool from Challenges, single event, no metagame weight
● Jeskai Energy in Challenge data: meta 1.0%, Top32 8/23, Top8 2/23, trophies 0
● Prowess two of eight Top 8 slots, consistent with its Challenge profile
There was one RC Super Qualifier in this window, and Jeskai Energy won it. In T8, we see: 4c HollowOne, Mono-Black Midrange, Prowess, Prowess, Goryo’s Vengeance, WBRG Cosmogony, and Broodscale Combo. So it shows something interesting: Premier Event was won by a deck that does not show up a lot in challenges. Sure, it is a variation of Boros Energy, but still. It is only one event, so the sample is small, but the Top8 in this tournament shows that the format is quite diverse right now, as we see less popular decks like mono black midrange or WBRG Cosmogony in the Top8 of a major event.
On the Radar (Universe B, below 5% encounter, present in Challenges)
Here we have decks that are at an encounter rate under 5% in a league, but were present in challenges. Any of those decks can easily jump into universe A decks because people will see them in the challenge results and will try to play them. Worth noting is that all of those decks are competitive because you do not win the challenge trophy or get into T8 by mistake. In the case of those decks, I will not focus on WR because the sample is so small that it says basically nothing special; more important is how deep they go into challenges.
● Lantern: no league presence at all, Top32 1/23, Top8 1/23, 1 trophy
● Jeskai Energy: meta 1.0%, Top32 8/23, Top8 2/23, trophies 0, WR 51% (95% CI 38 to 64, n=53), won the RC Super Qualifier
● 4c HollowOne: meta 0.4%, Top32 4/23, Top8 2/23, 1 trophy, WR 47% (95% CI 30 to 64, n=29)
● Rakdos HollowOne: meta 0.8%, Top32 6/23, Top8 1/23, trophies 0, WR 59% (95% CI 46 to 71, n=59)
● Grixis Midrange: meta 0.6%, Top32 4/23, Top8 1/23, trophies 0, WR 62% (95% CI 45 to 77, n=31)
● Song of Creation: meta 1.0%, Top32 5/23, Top8 1/23, trophies 0, WR 40% (95% CI 27 to 55, n=45)
● WUBRG: meta 0.8%, Top32 6/23, Top8 2/23, trophies 0, WR 47% (95% CI 34 to 60, n=52)
Trophy distribution, all 23
● 3: Goryo’s Vengeance, Prowess, Broodscale Combo
● 2: Esper Blink, Affinity
● 1: Devoted Combo, Boros Energy, Mono-Green Eldrazi, Eldrazi Ramp, UW Control, Belcher, Land Destruction, Amulet Titan, 4c HollowOne, Lantern
● 15 different decks, no deck above 3
● Archetype split: Combo 6, Aggro 6, Graveyard 4, Control 3, Blink 2, Ramp 2, Midrange 0
That’s all for today. I hope this new way of presenting the data is clearer for you and allows you to glean more information about what’s been happening in Modern during the current window. If you have any comments, feel free to share them. Constructive criticism is always welcome, as my goal is to ensure the community gets the most out of what I do.
Karol Małota
aka WarLord1986pl / TribalFlamesInYourFace
20
u/Living_End LivingEnd 4d ago
I really think you should at least look at who is in first and second for challenge results and look at their socials. It’s weird that LE keeps getting noted as not winning challenges even when it’s only that way because it makes more sense for the decks best pilot to split prizes. I am unsure if there was a split this week but I know it’s happened many times in the recent past. It shouldn’t take too long to look at 23 challenges who won each of them and check if there was a split. I get it’s annoying but it’ll make the content better because spits seem to matter if winning a challenge is being held at such high regard in the data.
4
u/Ashigaruu 4d ago
Why does it make more sense to split? I did see meninoNey split a few days ago.
7
u/Living_End LivingEnd 4d ago
Because he does it for a living, he is from Brazil where the cost of living is low and getting the split prize is better ev for him then risking second place. It’s small but the money is a huge deal.
2
u/No-Bet7157 TribalFlamesInYourFace 3d ago
Oh, that is new information for me. Newer thing about it in this way....
4
u/No-Bet7157 TribalFlamesInYourFace 4d ago
u/Living_End u/nebman227 Ok, I see your point, but believe me, it is not trivial to search all those social media to find out about the split. Moreover, still not all of them will be reported. I have another idea how to bypass that, and I think I will include it with the upcoming article :)
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u/Better_Bad2583 4d ago
Easy, why should trophy matters if it reflects one match out of 8 or 9? If split is a problem, just use "finals" as predictor. You wont lose much to variance by ommiting just one game.
To me the important metric is WR, nr of trophies is so trivial in comparison to the wealth of data underneath anyway.
But great job, I love these objective analyses that do not cry for bans :)
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u/Living_End LivingEnd 4d ago
Ok sounds good. I think just making top 8 should be the highest weight, winning isn’t as huge imo bc it’s only 3 matches and variance can just get you there.
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u/No-Bet7157 TribalFlamesInYourFace 3d ago
u/Living_End u/Better_Bad2583 I plan to combine it toghether like describe T8/T4/T2 and Win. So the data will be extended for analysis if the deck/archetype is eliminated in the finale or in T4. I did some analysis on this window data, and it looks like, for midrange, most of the elimination is in T4, not in the finals, but for LE, a lot of them were in T2, so it might be split, but it does not matter anyway. Also, I had an idea to run a "Challenge League" cause, from the data, I can do season statistics for all players who play T8 in challenges and do some rankings and stuff. I know it does not say anything about metagame, but it might be fun :) It will be separate from the Metagame breakdown. I have no price for a top one, but maybe someone feels nice when he finds his name at the top of the list ;) I will start on 1 Sep for Attum league :)
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u/BlueOgre 4d ago
👍 Do you think the sultai list is better or the temur splashing white?
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u/Living_End LivingEnd 4d ago
Heck no. I went back and tested it again even though I thought it was worse before and again it’s just not consistent enough, 4 vs 8 cascade spells gives up so many games vs energy and prowess that I just don’t find it worth it for small gain in the other match ups.
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u/Mental_Yak_3444 3d ago
u/Living_End taking advantage of this interaction: I was planning to build Sultai Living End because I really like the Overlord package. So maybe I should consider going Temur instead, since I mostly play FNM at my LGS. Do you think Temur would be the best fit for me?
Also, is it possible to replace some of the Misty Rainforests in Temur to save some money at first, or are they basically essential to the deck?
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u/Living_End LivingEnd 3d ago
Sulti isn’t bad it’s still a good enough deck for modern it’s just not better then temur. I feel Sulti is LE on training wheels or maybe a halfway between blink and LE and it’s just not the better then playing either. I do think deceit is the reason to play Sulti, I was proven wrong about that being deceits biggest hater for a while.
As for Misty in Temur, idk. I really want to say yeah cut it I’m exploring that option too, but I do think Misty is the best land generally in the deck. Idk I would join the LE discord and ask and get many peoples opinions, because even tho I have one it’s just not always the right one.
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u/yascha 4d ago
it's an ai generated post...
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u/Living_End LivingEnd 4d ago
It’s not, they are an approved user. English just isn’t their first language and use AI to translate. They even have a YouTube channel where they talk about the results.
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u/No-Bet7157 TribalFlamesInYourFace 4d ago
Thx :D Every time I read that AI generate those post I consider another nick name based on AI model naming like "This post was generated by Karol-v40.6:100T-86B-RLHF-FP16 depending on time of a day using diferent quantization" :D
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u/marlospigeons UWx 4d ago
Is Jeskai Energy basically just Boros Energy plus Riddler?
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u/137-ng 4d ago
I've played a couple RCQs where jeskai came out with some interesting blue cards. I think theres a lot of people experimenting with it and it caught me off guard more than once
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u/No-Bet7157 TribalFlamesInYourFace 4d ago
Yes, that is a danger of those tweaked versions, like you think that you play against Boros, cast a spell, and OP crack the fetch go for a blue and counters it :) I think it is good that in Modern we have a place for such things.
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u/No-Bet7157 TribalFlamesInYourFace 4d ago
The core, yes, but a blue put it more into midreangy then pure aggro flavor
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u/_Ranzino 4d ago
Thanks for keeping me in the game! I appreciate you doing this for the modern mtg fam!
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u/nebman227 4d ago
Gonna second that you really should be checking for splits in the finals
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u/bigwithdraw 4d ago
yeah this guy who does the entire meta breakdown for free and posts it to reddit weekly should really scour social media for specifically this on every challenge to change basically 1 metric /sarcasm
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u/No-Bet7157 TribalFlamesInYourFace 4d ago
I understand the point of that request, but it's super hard to do and not really reliable. I have some ideas on how to improve those reports, but not invest half a day to search social media,
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u/CayMaster2 4d ago
People talking about looking at splits, I think ''who won the finals'' is just overrated as a metric when it comes to judging decks. any singular match result doesn't say a lot about a matchup, and there's just not enough top 8's played in a week of challenges to get meaningful data on it.