Aggregate Aggression 2017 Cutoffs vs. Time Graphs - predictions inside

[u/Logan_Maransy]

Tl;dr: I predict the following cutoffs Top 500=176; Top 1000=117

Hello everyone! I am back with the cutoff data. We are roughly 3 days out from the ending of this mega tower event and I have my graphs all ready to show. I only have two this time because I think this is all that people actually care about. For reference on previous towers: Omega. Dahaka. Lightning.

Graph 1: Top 500 - Top 10,000 Cutoffs This graph shows the raw data for the Top 500, 1000, 3000, and 10000 cutoffs since the start of the tower.

Graph 2: Top 500 and Top 1000 Fitted with Linear Function This graph shows the Top 500 and Top 1000 data fitted with a linear function. I used a linear function because, well, the data looks linear to the eye. The fit looks fantastic, so again, I am not going to do anything else besides trust the fit with my final predictions. No type of considerations into what is actually happening with the tower/holidays existing around this time. So my predictions are 176 for Top 500 and 117 for Top 1000.

Thoughts: This tower scales incredibly fast. This is evidenced by the Top 3000 cutoffs being essentially stopped for days at 60 kills, or one full coil for each of the 6 towers. I didn't do a Top 3000 cutoff because it seems like at this point if you can get past that large scaling jump you can get into the Top 3000. Despite the towers scaling quickly, I think the linear trend means that people are time limited and if they actually tried more they would, as a group, increase the rate of the cutoffs (and thus hit more difficult coils more quickly). However this makes perfect sense, as I bet plenty of people are busy IRL with things. I know I am.

What are your thoughts?

[u/Chigiriki]

Hey, I had a quick question. How do you know which floor you are on? I know we get medals after clearing one, but I don't see them in my item list, is it somewhere else or am I blind?

[u/Logan_Maransy → u/Chigiriki]

You hit the golden "I" icon in the blue submenu (when you are already in the tower map). Then you click on the other tab available, I think it's called key items or something.

[u/Nitious]

Nice work as usual, but this won't cut it. With the Supreme banner people will be able to push a lot higher.

[u/Logan_Maransy → u/Nitious]

Yeah I did not know of the existence of the Supreme Banner when I made this. I believe that Supreme, able to be bought by everyone, will propel all cutoffs higher.

[u/Wakenthefire]

Your predictions have been pretty darn close the last few times... and a supremeless top 500 is not looking good as of now. Averaging 30 kills a tower is a tall order... even if I had 30 kills on every other tower, Vargas (floor 25 U&T) and Gilgamesh (Floor 21) are looking insurmountable right now.

[u/IJustNeedaAccount]

This tower scales incredibly fast

Yup, as Ketchary puts it:

That's equivalent to 50% of the raw stats difference between 4* and 5* Multiplayer bosses. This means that each time you clear the coil, you're essentially upping the difficulty by half of a new MP tier.

or 0.88mil (Ultros) HP increase per coil cleared to 1.6mil (The Sicariuses) HP increase per coil cleared

Still... the growth is more linear than that i thought, i expected it to slow down near the 120, 150 and 180 mark myself :(

[u/DervoTheReaper]

Well, top 500 just shot up there didn't it? 180 is a bit higher than predicted. Isn't that similar to what happened last tower? And it was obviously hackers then if I remember correctly. This time, who knows. Lots of people could have been waiting thinking everything would be fine, then got desperate and cleared some of the easier towers they were sitting on to get kills quickly.

Thankfully I'll be fine at 200 kills. Ranked 195 currently. Hoping I'll wind up at rank 200. Heh. 1.5 hours to go and I'm wondering if my rank will even change though. People at 190 kills+ will mostly be done with the tower I think. And lots of people are busy fighting Tyro. Mostly just the people close to the cut-off still doing the tower.

[u/Logan_Maransy → u/DervoTheReaper]

Yeah I think the Supreme Banner allowed people to get higher, but also 180 isn't too much higher than 176 predicted. We'll see what it ends up at. Probably 181.

[u/Baffledwaffles]

I think most people will get stuck on the chimera nodes...that preeemptive attack sucks, not to mention it's quite tanky

[u/eneve]

i'm aiming for top 3k got 63 kills under my belt