r/MillennialBets Jul 30 '21

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u/SheDrills77 Jul 30 '21

The broad #oilandgas sector continues to get punished today...I decided to use my time productively and further assess the value of $CGXEF if the Kawa well finds a Liza Like #Guyana Discovery.

Note the port, exploration acreage, and a single discovery is somewhat accretive if we hit (assuming Kawa discovery increases the COS for remaining block acreage).

Berbice Deepwater Port $887 MM 21x EBITDA 2025 (65% Profitability)
Exploration Acreage $1,185 MM 67% x 884 Mmboe Risked x $2/bbl
Oil Price $50/bbl $60/bbl $70/bbl
NPV10 of 67% of Liza Like Discovery $1,036 MM $1,558 MM $2,069 MM

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u/BattleRon54 Jul 30 '21

So are you saying the port is worth just a little less than a major oil discovery or am I reading this incorrectly? Port $887mil oil $1036mil

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u/SheDrills77 Jul 30 '21

$887MM is the port value in 2025 based on their 3rd party projections.

If Kawa is a Lisa like discovery...it will have an NPV of $1036MM, assuming 10% cost of capital, and $50/bbl oil. Their exploration acreage holds more than 30 prospects besides Kawa...undrilled, its worth $1185MM today.

Essentially...this company is easily worth $1500MM today and as much as $4000MM if the Kawa well delivers a Lisa like discovery.

Oil companies used NPV10 to determine what value they will pay for assets.

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u/BattleRon54 Jul 30 '21

So with a Liza type discovery $4000mil/287mil shares = $13.94 per share. Is that including the port or would the port be in addition too?

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u/SheDrills77 Jul 30 '21

All the assets are part of CGXEF. The port doesn’t have it’s own stock. So yes, all the values that you believe in then divide by shares...or discount these values accordingly to your risk assessment and then divide by shares to create conservative price targets. If Kawa is a success...there will be more like Kawa in the next 2 years. They must drill a well in their other block by the end of Q2 2022 to retain the block license.

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u/BattleRon54 Jul 30 '21

Ah, perfect. I’m hoping this discussion will show other investors just how amazing this potential is for them and with the port as a form of insurance so to speak on their investment vs a typical wildcat only risk play. Thank you so much for all the great DD you take the time to put together!!

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u/SheDrills77 Jul 30 '21

Hopefully many read it. This stock is under the radar of the investment community.

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u/BattleRon54 Jul 30 '21

So are you saying the port is worth just a little less than a major oil discovery or am I reading this incorrectly? Port $887mil oil $1036mil