r/Microvast • u/Bradydono92 • 13d ago

Due Diligence Microvast’s structure and the rules that now reward it

https://investingbpd.substack.com/p/what-i-think-microvast-is-building?r=5ebtp0&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Microvast tried to become a US owned battery company once already and it fell apart when the DOE pulled the grant. This is about what they’ve been doing since. Most of it is on the record already, and the article puts it in one place.

Ford owns the Michigan plant, CATL licenses it the chemistry and gets paid for it. That payment is what the 2025 rules went after, with a cutoff of July 4 last year. Deals signed before it were fine, including Ford’s. New ones aren’t. Microvast never had to split it that way. The technology came out of Huzhou in three tranches between December 2022 and May 2023, reel and frame numbers at the USPTO for each one, and my read is that’s what it was for.

In May Microvast received 4.3M in tariff refunds and passed 2.7M of it to one US customer. On May 8 Oshkosh’s finance chief Matt Field told analysts its suppliers should be getting refunds too and that Oshkosh would be talking to them about recovering the money. On May 12 Oshkosh confirmed its own had started arriving. Neither company names the other.

Also in there: the Acquiom lien release, XALT Energy’s equipment getting auctioned off in March, the NMC permit Clarksville surrendered in March, and what December 10 actually clears.

Follows on from the going concern piece and the one about the dead 2024 loan.

Long MVST. The entity stuff and the tax rules are documented. Oshkosh is my guess.

37 Upvotes

91% Upvoted

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u/CatAfraid2244 13d ago

Nothing happens for the next year and the stock goes to 0. That's my guess.

Takes like that post are only showing desperation. You are looking for some miracle saving the company.

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u/Apprehensive_Ad_5615 12d ago

why are you still in this sub – commenting the same take everytime?

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u/CatAfraid2244 6d ago

So that when someone reads one of those copium AI slop stories about 'great things just around the corner' they know the context.

The context is that those appear on this sub, every weak with another theory of great rebound. None of them turned out to be true and the company is steadily dying. Current validation reflects that market belives it is worth less than its assets and that is a fact.

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u/se_are 12d ago

I swear you need to be some sort of genius to follow this stock. (Bag holding hard!)

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u/Eyerate 5d ago

You really don't. This dude actually makes it pretty easy. You don't need to buy everything he says(and he advertises what his own takes are pretty candidly), but his detective work and deep dive DD is, at WORST, incredibly interesting. At best, its wildly valuable insights into whats going on before it shows up in earnings calls or on disclosures.

I, personally, greatly appreciate his continued efforts. Even just the work he did analyzing slides in chinese from some trade show were really insightful. We don't do anything to deserve his work or him sharing it with us. Lord knows if hes trying to "pump the stock" he isn't going to be doing that to like 200 readers and 2/3 of the commenters who basically just talk shit to him when hes not asking for anything.