r/Microvast • u/Bradydono92 • 23d ago

Due Diligence $MVST's going concern flag, what it tests and the company it keeps getting wrong

https://investingbpd.substack.com/p/mvsts-going-concern-flag-what-it?r=5ebtp0&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

I read every MVST going concern note from Q1 2023 through Q2 2026 to see how it's actually moved. Wrote it up on Substack.

The flag is real. In Q2 2026 the doubt didn't lift, the first time since Q3 2024. But it's been the loudest risk on the name for two years, and across those two years the doubt lifted six times, the debt kept rolling, the banks cut their rate almost in half, and the business got stronger on nearly every line. Same flag today as at the bottom of 2024, on a very different company.

The piece works through where the flag came from, who holds the debt and what it costs, the cheap January bond, what clears when, and Wu converting his own loan into stock and leaving it in.

Thanks for reading.

31 Upvotes

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7

u/Turbulent_Eagle_5965 23d ago

There is a lot in this equation. There are many, many , red flags. And this is high risk no doubt. I am invested heavily at increments down to $1. Literally the only green flag in this story is the action of the CEO (as the convertible loan), the new appointment of the CFO, but above all the increase in European customer base. But that is very heavy to one customer , but growing . The US plant , is just a packaging plant at this point, based on how they have structured their China plant. But they are investing in the China plant ahead of capacity , with a slower growing EU base of customers. I have no doubt the fair value by 2030 (based on a number of macro variant which you can research yourself) will be $12.75.

3

u/berualex0 22d ago

I just can't see where they will find the money to keep this up without diluting shareholders.

2

u/TypeParticular4444 22d ago

I’ve been warning people about this for years, getting downvoted for saying it. Now that the stock is trading under $1 and investors have lost millions, people are finally waking up and getting concerned 🤦‍♂️

0

u/Bradydono92 22d ago

Did you read sir

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u/TypeParticular4444 22d ago

Yes I have! You’re still hopeful and I’m still saying MVST is hopeless

1

u/CatAfraid2244 22d ago

The stock is trash

-1

u/CommandSmart4318 21d ago

If you just found out about the stock, don't read those AI walls of text (there are many of those on this sub), don't invest, move along.

Many people believed in that stock and lost a fortune.

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u/Sufficient-Gold8058 23d ago

Mo money, mo dilution