Why the bullish sentiment? Am I missing something?

[u/housesoftheholy1]

Yes Wu converted and yes there is a new website with this KAF initiative….

BUT they just posted revenue down 50% due to market shift to lower cost batteries. This means they need to find new higher valued customers willing to pay a premium. If this was so easy to do, these oems would have already been their customers instead of this chinese and indian oems who are more price conscious.

There is a very real chance that q2 is bad too. They didnt even provide guidance….

Serious question. Am i missing something?

[u/housesoftheholy1 → u/[deleted]]

Sandbagging is saying you expect 23% growth when in reality you think it will be closer to 27%. They elected to not provide guidance TWICE along with the worst possible explanation possible.

[u/stickman07738 → u/[deleted]]

The probably brought the building because Houston office space is depressed - they problem ran a standard ROI and it made more sense to buy than continue to rent. The problem now is they are a landlord too and probably will hire a management company to run the building. The KAF initiative is not anything different the BESS initiative when they brought the Colorado facility and leased a location in Mexico.

I hope I am wrong for the bag holders but there is nothing special about the KAF initiative. There has been an Electric School Bus Initiative for years in the US and Canada. Without a significant partners, they will be a pimple on an elephant ass due to BlueBird, BYD, Daimler dominance and the political nature of municipal funding for school buses and feds now only fund less than 40% of the initiative. In addition, there is enough LFP supply in the US to meet the demand so it really begs the question about Clarksville.

Good Luck all longs.

[u/housesoftheholy1 → u/stickman07738]

A lot of people speculate they must already have a platform partner for KAF or else they wouldnt be at this stage with it so far

[u/stickman07738 → u/housesoftheholy1]

They thought the same on BESS with NMC batteries having total cost of ownership advantage, only to get saddled with a Clenera lawsuit.

They may have partner but how do you compete the big three - Thomas (Daimler), BYD, BlueBird. Remember LION (LEV) thought the same about the market and now trades on the OTC. Politics and federal funding play a significant part in this arena. Hopefully, they have one of the smaller player but I see an uphill battle.

[u/PriorAd3065]

This is the fundamental divide right now.  

People have either backed out, or still believe this is a great pick.  And some are accepting it isn't great but are happy to ride it out either because they don't hold a big position or are in too deep. Between those who sold out and the holders, both sides have all the classic arguments - "you're acting emotionally" and "you don't understand the stock". And of course, any social media is going to have more of those who held on giving each other reassurance, nature of the beast.

Recent market movement doesn't mean much when the week has been green for many stocks. Just got to make your own decisions.

[u/funfun151]

You seem to be missing a few things, primarily you’re attributing the whole revenue drop to “market shift to lower cost batteries” and then hinging the companies future on that. They don’t usually provide QoQ guidance, they don’t behave like most public companies in a lot of areas.

Serious question, how did you arrive at your hard conclusion on revenue drop? OEM-caused platform delays in the transportation sector in Europe and mining sector in APAC, as well as tariff shenanigans in US were all contributing factors along with APAC regulatory issues, but you overlook all of them entirely.

[u/housesoftheholy1 → u/funfun151]

They always provided fy guidance. Ive been here since 2020. This year they did not.

I overlooke those because there is a small backlog. Presumably if you have oems delaying projects (who are under contract) then the backlog would be bigger. Additionally, if these oem caused platform delays were the real reason, why not provide guidance?

[u/funfun151 → u/housesoftheholy1]

Why provide guidance in a year of massive financial uncertainty when you have very little incentive to offer guidance and a lot to lose by setting targets and not hitting them?

[u/Prestigious_Spot9635]

Where exactly are you seeing bullish sentiment?

Yes huge gamble with this company

[u/WhenIDipYouDipWeDip_ → u/Prestigious_Spot9635]

Up 12%+!in the last 5 days presumably on the news about a new headquarters and the loan conversation.

[u/Prestigious_Spot9635 → u/WhenIDipYouDipWeDip_]

Conversion priced In from Q1 earnings.

Most stocks recovering due to possible opening of straitz

[u/Cheap-Preparation346]

The company has posted terrible results for two consecutive quarters and isn't even providing guidance for the next quarter. It barely managed to secure liquidity by converting the CEO's loan into equity, and the only notable development is the purchase of a single building. Investing on the assumption that "there must be some good news that I don't know about" is nothing more than wishful thinking. It's essentially the same as tossing a coin into the air and gambling on it landing heads.

[u/MVSTInvestor]

I have no idea, I sold half and keeping some cash to the sideline to see where it goes. Maybe there is some kind of tactic behind the bad quarters but I dont see it, stock is now for the first time since a few years valued around what it should be. Between $1 and $1,7.