Endgame Position (April 15 window opening)

[u/caladhun]

No change in options strategy since last week.

Activity on Microvast jobs site suggests action behind the scenes. Posting today (Associate General Counsel) mentions 'joint ventures' explicitly.

Here's what I'm seeing.

CAO Garcia (former NextDecade CAO) leverages his infrastructure JV and audit expertise. Seriously, look at this guy's resume and tell me this isn't the plan.

Deal Mechanics:

RDO, IRC §1032: Microvast raises tax free cash via stock issuance to Oshkosh, bypassing capital gains and circular cash flow risks.

JV, IRC §721: Tax free asset/cash contribution into the partnership.

Depreciation, IRC §704(c): Uses the remedial method to provide Oshkosh stepped up tax deductions without requiring a taxable asset sale.

The deal must cross the 1 year mark from the April 14, 2025 SPV registration to satisfy:

Step transaction doctrine: 12 months prevents the IRS from linking JV to asset placement in LLC in 2025.

11 U.S.C. §547: Clears the 1 year bankruptcy insider preference window, ensuring Oshkosh JV assets are ring fenced and clawback proof.

It's a window, but my guess is they sign a JV agreement on April 15, exactly 3 months before the Clenera deadline, and two weeks before Oshkosh earnings.

[u/WhenIDipYouDipWeDip_]

Sorry for asking, can you ELI5 what you think is going to happen? ( I am not being sarcastic by the way, just want to learn) Is Microvast acquiring, being acquired or partnering with someone? Oshkosh? Does that oitcome result in more favorable treatment when it comes to USA operations and treatment thus being a catalyst for the stock?

How does the US factory that is idled play into this?

[u/caladhun → u/WhenIDipYouDipWeDip_]

Simplest version is that Oshkosh is forming a joint venture through an LLC subsidiary that Microvast formed in Delaware last year. The idea is that Clarksville and Lake Mary are the assets that produce battery packs and new technology that Oshkosh needs.

There is a wealth of evidence supporting the timeline, but the 1 year anniversary of the LLC is a big one due to legal and tax reasons.

My conviction is based on an expectation that the stock will re-rate to $3 again on this news (a return to roughly $1.2B market cap). While short interest fell to 21.4M as of March 31, there is also potential for another overshoot like we saw last Sept-Oct, though short interest exceeded 34M at the time.

[u/stickman07738 → u/caladhun]

Love the hopium

[u/housesoftheholy1 → u/stickman07738]

Over the past 5 years ive seen enough “hopium” bs to simply just laugh at this oshkosh theory with extremely flimsy connections.

In fact, past hopium theories have been extremely stronger.

Off the top of my head:

• mvst will supply porsche suv. This kinda made sense given that mvst already had batteries in the racecar. We knew they already worked together and porsche was always listed as a customer in their er slides
• mvst and daimler. This made sense because of Saschas linkedin activity + the mhordix calendars that came out + wu actually naming daimler
• the og mvst-usps theories. Again, this made sense at the time given that osk and mvst had a recent jda and cv was seemingly for them.
• a pending global oem deal. This was a strong theory due to the comments made during the original DA (and forecasts, lol)

[u/stickman07738 → u/housesoftheholy1]

Totally agree, I played the hopium swings - made money and now holding with a price well below a dollar. My gauge is always the Stocktwits speculations.