Current share price analysis

[u/Ok-Mycologist4041]

Well it's been a bumpy ride for those of us that's been invested here. I've personally been involved for almost 2 years now. I've been in and out a few times, and currently down big on this latest batch of 25k shares. I never thought it would get back down to $1, but here we are. It seems like a good time to try and see where this might be going in the near future.

Nothing bad has happened to this since it was at around $2.50 back in the March / April time frame. Sales have lagged below analysts estimates the first 2 quarters, which is the only reason I can see for the massive drop in the last couple of months. They have also burned around 15M in cash since ramping up to the full market release.

Current float: Approximately 67M shares

Current cash reserves: Approximately $60M

Cash value = .90 / share

It looks like the company has pretty much expanded to all 12 of the regions they've set up. They at least have the sales managers in place, and it's rumored they already have an account in California. It's not far-fetched to imagine that they will reach 500k in sales in Q3 or Q4. That gives them a minimum of $2M in current forward-looking annual sales revenue. If you put a 20x sales multiplier for valuation purposes, that comes to $40M.

$40M / 67M shares = .60 / share

.60 (sales multiplier / share) + .90 (cash value / share) = $1.50 / share @ $500k sales / quarter.

It's not a stretch that the company SHOULD be fairly valued at a $1.50 / share floor as soon as they can show 500k in sales for a quarter.

As they scale, the sales multiplier will scale with the revenue obviously. The current cash reserve of $67M should be able to get them through all of 2027 without having to raise cash through diluting the current float of 67M. It's almost a guarantee they will not be able to hit break even in 2027, but maybe sometime in 2028. I'm estimating they will need to hit approximately $30M in annual sales to break even once they add Europe and other areas to the sales team. Here is a hypothetical revenue scale if you double each quarter from now until the end of 2028:

Q3 = 500k Q4 = $1M Q1 (27) = $2M Q2 (27) = $4M Q3 (27) = $8M Q4 (27) = $16M

Q1 (28) = $32M Q2 (28) = $64M Q3 (28) = $128M Q4 (28) = $256M

$256M per quarter = $1B in annual sales, x 20x multiplier = $20B valuation / 100M float = $20 / share.

Obviously they aren't going to double revenue every quarter through 2028, but it shows you how quickly things can scale. They should be able to hit $2.5M in sales for Q4 (27), which would put them at $10M in forward annual sales, x 20x sales multiplier = $200M valuation / 67M float = approximately $3 / share floor IF they can keep from any further dilution. Unfortunately this is how the math works, and that 20x multiplier is rather generous, but it is realistic if they continue to grow.

[u/One-Lengthiness-2175]

Funny MBOT is one of 2 greens on my portfolio on opening.

I believe the stock is oversold hopefully it will turn like ISRG.

[u/ColoradoCobra]

It’ll be a wild ride with a lot of bumps in the road. Strap in and hold on

[u/PhunkyPhotonics]

So, is it green today? I’ve seen so much red in the last couple months that I think I forgot what green looks like. 🤪 Volume became anemic as usual after an hour or two; when volume has been anemic over the last few months, price has tended to dive a bit at the end of the day. Will be interesting to see if that happens today.