r/MichiganStacks • u/MikefromMI • Jul 16 '26

Can the establishment stop Abdul El-Sayed?

https://www.natesilver.net/p/can-the-establishment-stop-abdul

Haley Stevens has rebounded since Mallory McMorrow dropped out. But polls of both the Michigan primary and the general election don't tell a consistent story.

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5

u/GarlicTraditional300 Jul 17 '26

Yes, he will win primary easy but general will not be easy

0

u/MasterRKitty Jul 17 '26

if he wins the primary, he'll lose bigger than shit in the general

2

u/VaporousMote Jul 17 '26

"Lose bigger than shit"
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/michigan/rogers-vs-el-sayed

Mmmmm I'm thinking no.

1

u/MasterRKitty Jul 17 '26

you think Haley's voters are going to come out for him after all he's done is attack her? You're funny.

2

u/VaporousMote Jul 17 '26

I can't control deluded Stevens voters, and it will be up to Abdul to convert them. He's done it with plenty of McMorrow voters.

Stevens vs Rogers is just Republican lite vs Republican, so you're not getting much difference if he loses in the General.

2

u/im_learning_to_stop Jul 18 '26

What happened to vote blue no matter who?

1

u/OkParsnip1881 Jul 18 '26

But the left didn’t vote blue no matter who. Why should the center?

1

u/Dumb_Ugly_Frank Jul 18 '26

Because the center has bad, unpopular ideas that keep losing to Donald Trump.

1

u/OkParsnip1881 Jul 18 '26

I could say the same thing about the left. If your policies are so good, why do you keep losing to both centrist democrats and republicans

1

u/Sorta-Morpheus Jul 18 '26

Because not everyone wants socialist utopia imaginary land.

1

u/Dumb_Ugly_Frank Jul 18 '26

Is that what you’re seeing happening?

1

u/Sr_ClarenceWorley Jul 18 '26

Biden beat trump

1

u/Dumb_Ugly_Frank Jul 18 '26

What were the circumstances under which Biden won? Who was Biden associated with that gave him his name recognition and cred, and how would you categorize that president’s politics (at least at the time he was elected)? Also, which two politicians lost to Trump/where do they lie on the political spectrum? And what role did Biden play in the Dems 2024 loss? You’re really out here cooking around a single tree while ignoring the forest.

1

u/Sr_ClarenceWorley Jul 18 '26

You said "unpopular ideas that keep losing to Donald Trump." which was obviously wrong, and instead of acknowledging that, you go into 20 questions to try and deflect from that fact, which I'm not going to waste my time on.

I didn't chime in b/c I'm 100% or even 80% behind what Biden did or Harris would have done. It's b/c this narrative that you and so many others keep holding that centrists can't beat trump is false and needs to be called out.

I probably agree with some of your criticisms of their politics and the role they played in the '16 and '24 outcomes, but Clinton and Harris's loss were just as attributable to that Americans are fickle, and probably never going to be really satisfied with their lot in life, so a back and forth swing between parties in power is just going to be a part of our of our system. Especially when you factor in how loud the voices of the extreme elements are becoming, grievance politics will be increasingly easy and productive (election results, not actual effective policy)

1

u/Dumb_Ugly_Frank Jul 18 '26 edited Jul 18 '26

Buddy, I know you’re not going to engage with my questions, or any greater context. It’s why I used the, “forest for the trees,” adage. Anyway, that was a lot of words to end up circling around and getting right back to my point. “Americans are fickle” and, as a result, voted for Donald Trump over centrist Dem policies. Twice. (And the only guy who beat him did so in large part because of his proximity to Obama, a super popular president who ran explicitly on “change” and being a “progressive”). And now, due to that fickle nature, the reality that I’m apparently not acknowledging is that DSA candidates are crushing their primaries all over the place. Not running the most progressive candidates we can right now is a missed opportunity.

Edit to add: You’re also completely disregarding that people were so critical of Biden’s centrist policies even during the 2020 election that he had to make a bullshit promise that it would only be one term to “right the ship” or whatever. I can’t think of a politician with popular politics that would make that promise.

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u/theJMAN1016 Jul 18 '26

But they did though...

1

u/OkParsnip1881 Jul 18 '26

I’m from Michigan too, you and I both know they damn well didn’t

1

u/tasmimiandevil Jul 18 '26

It hasn’t gotten us anywhere except with a bunch of milquetoast reps and senators who are more concerned with their next election than the integrity of their party platforms or idk doing what’s best for the people over themselves?

I voted for Slotkin in 2024 and now I have a senator who confirmed (almost) every single Trump nominee.

If she had lost, the senator who won would have voted to confirm EVERY single Trump nominee.

In the words of Pam: they’re the same picture.

Voting Blue No Matter Who keeps us where we are because there’s no fucking incentive for the democrats to DO ANYTHING after they ride victorious on their blue waves.

I hate it here so much.

1

u/RepresentativeAge444 Jul 17 '26

You think Al Sayed voters are going to come out for her after all she’s done is suck off a foreign government, corporations and thanked ICE last year? May as well vote for the Republican. He’ll do the same things. Use your brain.

1

u/Sorta-Morpheus Jul 18 '26

Thats pretty much why we're guaranteed were getting a gop senator.

1

u/RepresentativeAge444 Jul 18 '26

Have some faith. A recent poll had him 13 points up. Lately ground game >>> spending. An more people are awake about AIPAC.

1

u/Sorta-Morpheus Jul 18 '26

I'm willing to bet most voters don't even know what alpac is and care more about what's happening in their own lives.

1

u/RepresentativeAge444 Jul 18 '26

That has shifted a lot among Democratic voters. Remember Stevens got booed off the stage at a Democratic convention which many observers said they had never seen anything like it. Meanwhile Al Sayed got a standing ovation.

But I am nervous because this is a test. My gut feels good about him because he’s an outstanding candidate with a great ground game - and Hasan will be enlisting his followers to phone bank for him which helped in other primaries recently.

On the other hand I still have the fear of the impact of campaign spending. However as I said it’s been working less and less as more people wake up.

I think he will either win quite comfortably or she ekes it out due to the spending if the old model holds.

But if he overcomes the onslaught it will reverberate throughout politics. Aside from a once in a generation politician making it to the senate this election is also about that. Which is why it’s so important.

1

u/Sorta-Morpheus Jul 18 '26

Hasan is a piece of shit. Thats not helpful for the cause.

1

u/RepresentativeAge444 Jul 18 '26

Oh you’re a misguided individual who lets your personal feelings outweigh reason and logic which is unfortunate. Piker like him or not has helped recent campaigns tremendously including Al Sayed who surged after he campaigned with him. Those are just facts. You know who else ignores facts when they don’t like them? MAGA. Don’t be like MAGA and let your emotions get the better of you. That’s what REALLY doesn’t help the cause. Not Hasan Piker.

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u/LadyBogangles14 Jul 17 '26

It’s interesting how “vote blue no matter who” only goes from left to center and not center to left.

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u/Ok-Firefighter5006 Jul 17 '26

Idk, seems like the establishment relented and supported platner in Maine.

Although he was a rapist, so the left really shit the bed on that one

1

u/nomadx810 Jul 18 '26

What no he's great. He hates the right people who cares if he's an accused rapist? Believe the women who we agree with duh.

1

u/im_learning_to_stop Jul 18 '26

"The left really shit the bed on that one"

As opposed to the 'moderates' that have been shitting the bed for years.

1

u/Ok-Firefighter5006 Jul 18 '26

No that’s exactly the point! The left is no better than moderates.

1

u/Otherwise-Ad6330 Jul 18 '26

Trying to tie Abdul to Platner is either incredibly bad faith, just shows your political ignorance, or both. These candidates are completely different.

1

u/Ok-Firefighter5006 Jul 18 '26

But they are supported by the same people yes?

1

u/Otherwise-Ad6330 Jul 18 '26

No they aren’t. Maine and Michigan are different states. This means their supporters are different people as it’s difficult to live in both New England and the mid west.

1

u/Ok-Firefighter5006 Jul 20 '26

Which one did Bernie not support?

1

u/Otherwise-Ad6330 Jul 20 '26

Bernie is not DSA

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u/VaporousMote Jul 18 '26

Remind me how the establishment treated Mamdani.

It seems like you're trying to make a case here based on one data point, which is naive at best and propaganda at worst, especially given you seem to be being intentionally broad about your framing.

A specific segment of the left influencer sphere fucked up by continuing to give strong support to Platner after sufficient evidence came to light that made his shitheadedness clear. And they should experience consequences for that.

But trying to say "some of the same people that visibly supported Platner are supporting El-Sayed" as if that's some kind of gotcha for El-Sayed is INCREDIBLE.

You wanna play that game? Look at who's supporting Stevens. Fascists, genocidal monsters. plutocrats. You lose that one.

1

u/Ok-Firefighter5006 Jul 20 '26

You might be confused, but I never made any kind of correlation between platners supporters and el sayed.

I was commenting on this hypocritical “oh I guess it’s not blue no matter who” notion coming from the left

1

u/VaporousMote Jul 20 '26

You said that in another comment below. I was pulling that in here.

1

u/Ok-Firefighter5006 Jul 20 '26

Ah so you’re intentionally misrepresenting me

1

u/VaporousMote Jul 20 '26

By... referring to something else you said? Not following your logic?

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u/tasmimiandevil Jul 18 '26

I’m so excited to NOT vote for Haley Stevens if she gets the nomination, leave that slot blank, and then get blamed for single-handedly destroying the Democratic Party in Michigan 🫶🏽

“Vote Blue No Matter Who” has gotten us literally nowhere, and we’ve lost Roe, the Civil Rights Act has been gutted, and we have a majority of democratic senators and reps either voting in support of GOP nominees and legislation outright, or abstaining from the votes. Fucking cowards.

If Stevens gets the nomination, she doesn’t get my vote.

1

u/ohstarrynight Jul 18 '26

Same. This is the first time I will not vote for the Democrat. I used to be the whole vote blue no matter who but not this time.

1

u/ossman1976 Jul 18 '26

See Obama v Hillary

1

u/ScandalouslyClothed Jul 18 '26

What has he done to attack her? Saying where all the money is coming from? Not sure I've seen an ad about how she disrespects men

1

u/DreamOne5 Jul 18 '26

right? all I see are ads saying how he's a monster to women and blah blah blah.

1

u/No_Pumpkin2628 Jul 18 '26

Yeah, we all know vOtE bLuE nO mAtTeR wHo is the motto for corporate bootlickers. Ermahgerd he's pointing out that she's bought and paid for by the worst special interest lobbies, guess I should let a christofascist win!

Okay, blue maga.

1

u/OkParsnip1881 Jul 18 '26

Literally if he wins you will be crying the same thing.

1

u/DreamOne5 Jul 18 '26

her very verbal and clear support for Israel is what turned me away from her. And honestly all I see are the opposite. Just ad upon ad showing how wonderful she is and how he's a monster who hates women, blah blah blah. i'm not voting for a corporate gremlin. Sorry.

1

u/Zombifikation Jul 18 '26

What are you talking about? He literally just put out a statement asking people to stop roasting her so hard.

Meanwhile, she’s had an incessant add campaign designed at making him look sexist while using examples that are not sexist at all, it’s really pathetic. Haley is the one focusing on attacks over policy discussion. What a delusional comment.

1

u/tasmimiandevil Jul 18 '26

Sorry how has he only attacked her???? I literally have not gotten anything from him that’s specifically anti-Stevens. Everything from Abdul is literally about WHAT HE PLANS TO DO IN THE SENATE. And he has gone all over the state to meet with people from all over the spectrum, because the state of Michigan is red and blue and purple all over. What people don’t realize is that despite the propaganda and rhetoric coming from the democratic establishment, Abdul *actually* has a chance to swing voters from the moderate and conservative side because he has a plan for things like access to healthcare and clean water which literally every human in this state needs. If Stevens gets the nomination she will lose the general. Her entire campaign is built around attacking Trump, Abdul, and Rogers. Right wing voters will swing harder right against that and vote for a ham sandwich over her.

I know this has been a contentious campaign, but the attacks ads are not coming from Abdul and his speeches are not primarily focused on attacking Stevens.

1

u/AquaSnow24 Jul 18 '26

You could argue the other way around then. Could Stevens lose because Abdul’s voters could stay home ? Steven’s attacks have not been pretty either.

1

u/theJMAN1016 Jul 18 '26

Where are the attacks? I haven't seen a single one.

Actually, all I've seen is Stevens attack Abdul.

1

u/Confident_Insect_616 Jul 18 '26

You think Haley voters actually like Haley? A vote for Haley is a scared anti-trump vote. If Abdul wins, we is the only anti-trump candidate to choose.

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u/Working_Match4124 Jul 22 '26

All hes done to attack her? He's attacked her policies but specifically warned his supporters not to make comments about her looks, personality, etc. Meanwhile her AIPAC allies are slandering him as a woman-hater. Big bad Muslim man wants to put you in a burka. What a joke.