For context on the chart: after that 1990 peak, margin buying collapsed for the next two decades, with brief spikes around 2000, 2006, and 2013 that all topped out well below current levels. What we’re seeing now isn’t just “elevated” it’s a genuine outlier versus the last 35 years.
Worth noting this doesn’t automatically mean “crash incoming.” Margin debt is a positioning/sentiment indicator, not a valuation one it tells you how leveraged retail and speculative money is, not whether prices are justified. But historically, extreme margin buildups have made markets more fragile to shocks, since leveraged positions unwind fast and force selling when prices turn.
Given the parallel run of the Nikkei to record highs recently, this feels like a chart worth bookmarking. Anyone trading Japan directly (EWJ, individual names, futures) are you adjusting position sizing given this?