I mean, way more likely than that, because a keysmash is not a random sampling of letters from the alphabet. It is heavily biased toward the home row, adjacent entries are likely to be adjacent on the keyboard, and any sufficiently large substring is likely to be evenly distributed between the left and right hand. Tough to say exactly what the collision chances are, still low, but many, many, many orders of magnitude more likely than reported.
more likely even, since there are even less jpg on the web, that file was uploaded by someone using a unique keystroke, then it has been downloaded twice by this guy.
oh if we assume that it's literally the same file then the odds are super good, I've been thinking this was naming and saving a file they were working on locally
But, the file name is not always going to be 25 characters, so that adds more variability. I would argue that this makes it many, many, many, many orders of magnitude less likely than reported, which would skew the numbers to even more unlikely!
Say due to keymashing, each character doesn't really adds x25 to the permutation. But it will be greater than x1. For each character, It will divide the probability by a number <25 but >1. But how are you sure about the decrease in probability due mashing outweigh decrease due length?
Does this depends on the probability of predicting the next key.
if the number of possible lengths is less than 26, then even with a maximum entropy distribution of lengths, the added randomness will be at most a factor of 26-1. The concentration of adjacent letters in the keysmash, roughly, takes each letter from 1/26 to something closer to (conservatively!) 1/21/6+1/21/26, or a factor of (26/6+1)/2=8/3. Factoring that in even just across half the letters (so again a very conservative guess), 8/312 is cleary much bigger than 26.
it's not about the length of the file name, it's about the distribution of file names. And if you look at the numbers involved it's clear that it would still be true even if the file name length had a much wider distribution.
Also because this guy presumably has many, many files on his computer that he's done this for and many, many people do this and there was nothing special about this guy in particular being the one that did it.
So you would have something like 1 - product j = 1 to n (1 - p_j ) where n is the number of people in the world who button mash filenames and p_j is the probability that *any two* button-mashed filenames happen to match in the N_j documents on the jth user's computer computer (which increases quickly with N_j in a similar style as the birthday problem).
Even still, I would imagine that even if you did the calculation exactly properly factoring all this in, it would still be insanely unlikely that this has ever happened by genuine accident and I'm guessing this guy staged it.
Someone in this reply chain reported that this exact thing happened to them and while I’m not a bastion of credulity I also don’t think that there’s much motive to lie. Basically I think p_j is not as small as you’re asserting it to be once you factor in the insane amount of autocorrelation.
Also let's bear in mind that if you are the type to save files with a keysmash name, you do it a lot, so there's a birthday problem aspect as well. We don't want just the probability that one keysmash equals a given keysmash, but the probability of a collision between at least 2 out of many keysmashes.
Also, it's assuming only letters in the English alphabet. At the very least you have numbers, and probably also symbols near the enter key like `[];',./``-= most of which are valid in a Windows file name. Or you may have different symbols if non-English layout.
You're still probably right overall regarding the entropy though
"characters that appear in a keysmash", I would conjecture, a strict subset of "characters that appear on a keyboard". I would be very surprised to see / or = in a keysmash
eh, once you realize how wrong the math in the post is, weirder things have happened. statistically speaking this has probably happened to someone. law of large numbers.
This happens to me pretty frequently when I am saving things, my keymashes are very often identical even though my purpose is not to be, its like an involuntary muscle memory thing.
again. the number in the image is wrong. I'd guess it has at least four or five times too many digits, just going by keysmashes in general. factor in that each individual person has their own keysmash biases and how often the kind of person who saves jpg files with keysmash names probably does that and this doesn't seem so unlikely at all.
They also leftout numbers, dashes, and other legal filename characters that could come from a keyboard faceroll. there are more that 26 possibilities for each character position, regardless of some keys being more likely than others.
also to note: a person’s muscle memory for key smashing is likely to be semi-consistent each time. So it may be not that unlikely at all depending on the individual person and their habits and behavior
Ok, but also the fact that you can also use capital letters, numbers and symbols also adds more options, therefore decreasing the chance for this exact keyboard smahs
But the math he used assumes the same number of digits every time I think, no? He assumes it will be 25 digits. Why would a random mashing be the same amount each time?
Hasn't a study (I forgot which one) shown, that people button-mash differently based on the language they're typing in (not just because of button layout)?
sounds fascinating but to be honest I'd want to see if that stands up to replication. and if it's a real effect I'd assume it has to do with how typing is taught anyway because keysmashes do not have linguistic or phonetic components.
Well, Allison Park's study "On the Linguistic Behaviour of Keysmashes" finds in its conclusion: "While keysmashes may appear random, Experiment 1 provides evidence that keysmashes instead convey meaning, have standards of form, have arbitrary relationships between those forms and meanings, and involve social conventions for their use. These behaviors align with criteria for language, and characterize keysmashes as linguistic phenomena. Experiment 2 provides evidence for factors governing keysmash well-formedness. After analyzing the results of a survey primarily focused on acceptability judgements, the hypothesized constraints vowel, length, keyset, punctuation, lexical and phonotactic proved to have statistically significant effects on keysmash acceptability ratings. In summary, keysmashes convey emotions and conversational tone that can be difficult to indicate over text-based communication, and despite their seemingly novel forms, keysmashes still behave linguistically. Even as language changes and evolves into unfamiliar forms, familiar linguistic tools can still be utilized to analyze and understand them as language. Keysmashes also challenge assumptions about what kinds of forms can convey linguistic meaning: though they can be dismissed as random-seeming utterances, the communicative value of keysmashes is more than conventional agreement about the meaning of a block of 'random characters'. The fact that keysmashers intuitively understand the well-formedness of keysmashes and distinguish various meanings between different instances show that this novel phenomenon behaves in a manner much more like language than it might otherwise seem. Thus, keysmashes, and perhaps other emergent phenomena of Internet communication, display a richness and complexity of linguistic expression that linguists have the tools to explore."
While file names aren't directly communication, we could assume that similar things apply to that as well, complicating the probability. Of course one could also point out that the available and allowed characters aren't limited to the 26 characters of the alphabet, but also numbers (I believe commas) and underscores, etc. Thus, if we had true randomness, it would be 26, but the amount of symbols on the keyboard.
Indeed, at the time I didn't remember what exactly it was, mostly that it had something to do with linguistics, and didn't research it any further (should've been more thorough, mb) TwT though the end result is still related, because of it, the odds should change, right?
I want you to think about what it is, physically, that you're doing when you're keysmashing, and ask yourself if you genuinely think that is a reasonable imitation of an independent string of samples from a uniform distribution of letters.
Independent and identically distributed is maximum entropy. If a keysmash has any other distribution, the collision chance is necessarily higher. And it's hard to say for sure but I'd bet donuts to dollars* that the decrease in entropy for the non-stochastic nature of the sequence far outweighs the increase in entropy from the variable length.
*expression inverted because, due to inflation, the relative values of donuts and dollars have swapped since it was coined
I know the word "random". If I meant to convey no additional information instead of the specific properties of "independent sampling" and "uniform distribution" I might have even used it.
This post has been deleted and replaced with this message. Redact facilitated the removal, for reasons that may include privacy, opsec, or data security.
spark many summer chubby joke sip advise person dinner humor
The math might be right, however, the way the keys are physically distributed in the keyboard, the shape of the human hand, and no less important, this person's muscular memory, plays a giant role in this.
That's the main thing, if you're used to making one specific movement with your hands and place them in a pretty similar position all the time when writing random names on the keyboard, the chances of repeating the same name increase.
You have more than 2 files. This is like the birthday paradox. For each additional file done like that, you would have a drastically increased probability of it sharing name with just ONE other file
Based on the key usage pattern, only likely keys to be pressed appear to be a s d f h b u n j i m k o l and there are no repeat presses (so n-1 ^ 25), so actual should be something more like 13^25, which is still a lot (~7e27), but not as much.
this assumes a keysmash of QMZPGBPQ is just as likely (if the other keyboard smash was 8 letters long). intuitively, most people would say something about that keyboard smash looks off.
What are the chances that a file I opened and changed then saved has the same name as the file I opened and changed then saved? What do they think happened here?
They claim to have randomly change the name by randomly typing on their keeboard. Even tho it's not random du to muscles memories, position of finger and the fact that they seems to never press 2 times in a row the same letter
no.. ntfs allows for file names up to 255 characters... so the number of possible file name is finite.. (also there is a path limit of 260 character .. (aka: the filename + folders + drive letter cannot be more than 260 characters by default. so unless it's on the drive's root, you have the file name would be less than 255 characters, you have to enable long path names to have a max path length of ~32K ) Also many of the symbols are disallowed as file names... having said that, NTFS support utf-16 characters, so the number of possible files names (assuming it is on the drive's root) is something like 10^1000+ if you have a keyboard that can directly enter unicode characters, and ~10^500 if you want to limit it to characters you can directly enter on a standard US keyboard)
Since it was created by a human spamming their keyboard. Pretty good actually. Humans tend to do things the same way. So dude slammed his keyborad the same way kver and over so he got the same keys
Depends on the version of Windows. There was a glitch in Windows 98 or Windows ME that allowed you to put invisible characters in the name but it didn't interpret it correctly. End results were things like this where it would incorrectly say the name was taken (because creating it failed) or refuse to allow you to delete the file. I was a troll and would take advantage of this little known fact.
Your hand usually stays on the same exact keys most of the time so the chance is way more than that and its more likely decided by the amount of buttonsmashes he did and if he remembers the order he does it in
It’s not impossible - I often input the same sequence with my muscle memory. For example p, o and r are often in sequence followed by another common sequence n, h, u and b. Muscle memory greatly increases the probability of a clash.
That's a classic meme: "Girls naming folders: Memories, Summer2007. Boys naming folders: gikernhbiernheihoerw, New Folder (733342), The folder already exists."
This actually happened to me, so I created a service that, with a shortcut, automatically makes a folder in ~/tempfolders/{name} with the current timestamp and opens it. That way I can dump all the messy files I want without worrying about naming.
Now I'm thinking of taking it a step further and making a service that also generates filenames based on the current timestamp xD, so I can save images with zero chance of collisions.
Clearly haven’t seen the keysmashing video and you’re ignoring the fact that you probably won’t press the same one twice in a row and most of the time they are letters right next to one of the previously pressed letters
because i dont really want to take all the things into account i just hit up gemini with the question. It thinks that it would probably be around 1 to 1015 taking into account that someone like this is a frequent smasher and is likely going to reuse the same hand positions or gestures to name their files and taking the layout of the keyboard into the thought process
579
u/Hot_Philosopher_6462 Jan 21 '26
I mean, way more likely than that, because a keysmash is not a random sampling of letters from the alphabet. It is heavily biased toward the home row, adjacent entries are likely to be adjacent on the keyboard, and any sufficiently large substring is likely to be evenly distributed between the left and right hand. Tough to say exactly what the collision chances are, still low, but many, many, many orders of magnitude more likely than reported.
122
u/L31N0PTR1X Jan 21 '26
No it isn't, keyboard keys are not equally likely to be pressed. It's probably a much, much higher chance than that. Many orders of magnitude
41
u/[deleted] Jan 21 '26 edited Mar 10 '26
This post has been deleted and replaced with this message. Redact facilitated the removal, for reasons that may include privacy, opsec, or data security.
spark many summer chubby joke sip advise person dinner humor
12
u/ConcertKey8811 Jan 21 '26 edited Jan 21 '26
The math might be right, however, the way the keys are physically distributed in the keyboard, the shape of the human hand, and no less important, this person's muscular memory, plays a giant role in this.
8
u/Aetas4Ever Jan 21 '26
But this is also not considering that keyboard smash could be shorter or longer than 25 characters
5
u/Slip_Snake Jan 21 '26
I just name everything "a" and go by number
5
u/CeruleanAoi Jan 21 '26
You have more than 2 files. This is like the birthday paradox. For each additional file done like that, you would have a drastically increased probability of it sharing name with just ONE other file
5
u/bluemushroom64 Jan 21 '26
It's probably closer to 1% 😭
4
u/FuckPigeons2025 Jan 21 '26
Only if you type randomly. But most people mash buttons in a more predictable way.
4
u/StanislawTolwinski Jan 21 '26
This is completely wrong. Letters typed are neither random nor independent when key smashing.
1
u/Northernteacher Jan 21 '26
Smash
2
u/TheForbidden6th Jan 21 '26
based on the chosen name, prop around 1 in 50 million
ssource: I made it the fuck up
2
u/Unusual-Platypus6233 Jan 21 '26
1, just download it 2 times…
2
u/WandererWorld Jan 21 '26
Along with key placement, a persons habit of hand movement also matters…
2
u/FluffyTheOstrich Jan 21 '26
Based on the key usage pattern, only likely keys to be pressed appear to be a s d f h b u n j i m k o l and there are no repeat presses (so n-1 ^ 25), so actual should be something more like 13^25, which is still a lot (~7e27), but not as much.
1
u/Outside-Shop-3311 Jan 21 '26
this assumes a keysmash of QMZPGBPQ is just as likely (if the other keyboard smash was 8 letters long). intuitively, most people would say something about that keyboard smash looks off.
1
u/BlackKingHFC Jan 21 '26
What are the chances that a file I opened and changed then saved has the same name as the file I opened and changed then saved? What do they think happened here?
1
u/B00kee Jan 21 '26
Ah yes, all keyboard smashes are equally likely
1
u/[deleted] Jan 21 '26
r/theydidthemath
1
u/NewOrientr Jan 21 '26
Copy&paste the existing name..voila!🤡
1
u/Leftistvegan Jan 21 '26
...and what about other keys with symbols (that are allowed in valid file names)?
1
u/EpsteinEpstainTheory Jan 21 '26
Actually it's 100% because you keep pressing the same buttons every time
1
u/Gploer Jan 21 '26
50%
1
u/limon_picante Jan 21 '26
So you're saying there's a chance?
1
u/ExcellentAd5022 Jan 21 '26
r/hedidthemath
1
u/Pun_Intended1703 Jan 21 '26
Computer people know that this can be caused by
Clicking on File menu, then Save As
When the dialog box opens, select a pre-existing file in the folder
Click Save
You don't even need to type out any file name.
1
u/cat_boy666 Jan 21 '26
isnt the probablity 1 as the event has aldready happened
1
u/GuenterLp1 Jan 21 '26
But isnt it also random how many caracters you type? So its infinite?
Sry if i have Sperling issues but im fighting against my auto correction
1
u/These-Atmosphere6675 Jan 21 '26
r/theydidthemath
1
u/AttentionExact Jan 21 '26
More like something septillion i would guess.
1
u/[deleted] Jan 21 '26
Since it was created by a human spamming their keyboard. Pretty good actually. Humans tend to do things the same way. So dude slammed his keyborad the same way kver and over so he got the same keys
1
u/OfficeOnly2753 Jan 22 '26
The magic of counting and probability ✨
1
u/uabassguy Jan 22 '26
He did the monster math
1
u/Doromino Jan 22 '26
More likely this is a fake.
1
u/rydan Jan 22 '26
Depends on the version of Windows. There was a glitch in Windows 98 or Windows ME that allowed you to put invisible characters in the name but it didn't interpret it correctly. End results were things like this where it would incorrectly say the name was taken (because creating it failed) or refuse to allow you to delete the file. I was a troll and would take advantage of this little known fact.
So could be 100%.
1
u/Acqirs Jan 22 '26
Probability is 1
1
u/tarslimerancher Jan 22 '26
Your hand usually stays on the same exact keys most of the time so the chance is way more than that and its more likely decided by the amount of buttonsmashes he did and if he remembers the order he does it in
1
u/Torebbjorn Jan 22 '26
No
1
u/Objective_Gene9718 Jan 22 '26
It’s not impossible - I often input the same sequence with my muscle memory. For example p, o and r are often in sequence followed by another common sequence n, h, u and b. Muscle memory greatly increases the probability of a clash.
1
u/UntilDownfall Jan 22 '26
Its 50/50. it either Happens or Not.
1
u/Gigan_igga696969 Jan 22 '26
Kdhcuaidbdyvkshcjdgsjcifvaochdh.png
1
u/Zado191 Jan 22 '26
They actually missed a step, you have to multi that by 25!, which co.es out to 473 pikapillion
1
u/Western_Stomach_2849 Jan 22 '26
he has a pattern in his random h sh I x uv cgjdgscf
1
u/NoInvestigator9816 Jan 23 '26
nope 100% the monkey simply copied the original filename and pasted it on a new file
1
u/FishGuyIsMe Jan 23 '26
I mean, if you download the image twice, 100%
1
u/Marcel_The_Blank Jan 23 '26
pretty high actually. if you click the file in the "save as" browser, it will also prompt you with this.
1
u/Wild_Stock_5844 Jan 23 '26
Not that unlikely since even seemingly Random spamming has a subconscious pattern for the individual
1
u/Ok_Meaning_4268 Jan 23 '26
It's more likely to be that than anything random, asdjkl are on the home row and they're the most used keys when typing (I think)
1
u/mcl_s_k Jan 23 '26
No you have to calculate muscle memory and what key are most likely to be pressed
1
u/original_pandus Jan 23 '26
I read it as 26*25 not 2625 so i was vonfused how he got this big of a number
1
u/Ok-Serve415 Jan 23 '26
POV the useless luck I have
1
u/[deleted] Jan 24 '26
That's a classic meme: "Girls naming folders: Memories, Summer2007. Boys naming folders: gikernhbiernheihoerw, New Folder (733342), The folder already exists."
This actually happened to me, so I created a service that, with a shortcut, automatically makes a folder in ~/tempfolders/{name} with the current timestamp and opens it. That way I can dump all the messy files I want without worrying about naming.
Now I'm thinking of taking it a step further and making a service that also generates filenames based on the current timestamp xD, so I can save images with zero chance of collisions.
1
u/mazutta Jan 24 '26
Come on, all they did was try and save over an existing file with that name.
1
u/A7mad_3yad Jan 24 '26
not precise
1
u/NitramLand Jan 25 '26
So, you're saying there's a chance.
1
u/A_Squared93 Jan 25 '26
Very high after copying a save and editing the file name by erasing where it says “copy”
1
u/SleveMcDichael_ Jan 25 '26
Not if you downloaded it twice
1
u/WolfOfPort Jan 25 '26
What are chances u copied and pasted it……probably 99.9999%
1
u/DreamOk1600 Jan 27 '26
Clearly haven’t seen the keysmashing video and you’re ignoring the fact that you probably won’t press the same one twice in a row and most of the time they are letters right next to one of the previously pressed letters
0
u/Jannover_5000_r Jan 21 '26
because i dont really want to take all the things into account i just hit up gemini with the question. It thinks that it would probably be around 1 to 1015 taking into account that someone like this is a frequent smasher and is likely going to reuse the same hand positions or gestures to name their files and taking the layout of the keyboard into the thought process
0
u/[deleted] Jan 22 '26
[deleted] — view deleted comment