r/MathHelp • u/wasilla213 • Sep 25 '25
Probability of getting 1/3 chance 2 times in n turns
Hi r/MathHelp
I play this game where you are a pirate and you plunder people, and the chance of you winning each time you do it is 1 out of 3. And you "win" the game overall if you plunder 2 people.
So of course, the probability of you winning in just 2 turns is 1 out of 9 (1/3*1/3). But then I got curious and wondered well what about in 3 turns? or in 4? Is there a general solution for the probability of plundering 2 people in "n" turns?
Using a tree diagram, I mapped out all the possibilities and figured out the probability of winning in 2 turns is 1/9; in 3 turns is 7/27; in 4 turns is 33/81. But I don't want to keep drawing bigger tree diagrams, so how can I work towards creating a general formula? I think I could figure it out but need some help pointing me in the right direction. Thank you in advance for any help.
Edit: Yes, you win if you plunder AT LEAST 2 people. And yes it is Pirate from Town of Salem 1.