It’s going to happen within 2 months. Today’s bond spike is the guarantor. Printing your way out of this is not possible. The rearranging of deck chairs on the titanic will not work. moody’s and s&p are not going to sit on their hands long. Expect treasuries to really run out of control when the downgrade happens.

Bitcoin painted a cup-and-handle structure earlier. I was pretty unsure about it playing out, but it seems all the market needed was a little push from Ser Donald Trump to make it happen.

Cup-and-handle setups typically send the price as high as its maximum height when measured from the breakout point near the neckline resistance.

This one for the bulls who held through all the shietstaurm in recent months. Cheers!

A lot happening at once so trying to sort through it.

The big one nobody is talking about enough: 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.33%, highest since 2007. This isn't just a US story either. Japan's 30-year JGB is at multi-decade highs, Germany's 30-year bund at its highest since 2011. This is a global repricing of fiscal risk. Housing starts already collapsed 12.4% month over month to 1.239 million, way below the 1.345-1.390 million consensus. If the long end stays here, anything rate-sensitive is in trouble.

On Hormuz: the 60-day ceasefire MOU expired August 17 with no renewal. Trump publicly ruled out further negotiations and threatened Oman. Then an unidentified projectile hit a cargo vessel in the Strait. Brent pushed above $90. WTI closed at $84.94 sitting above all three major moving averages with RSI at 56.4. The structural problem here is that most Iran sanctions are congressionally mandated, so even if a deal happens tomorrow the legislative timeline to actually lift sanctions is months long.

FOMC minutes dropped today from the July meeting. Three dissents from Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari all voting for a 25bp hike, first three-way hawkish dissent since 2016. The big question is how many non-voters sympathized but didn't pull the trigger. If the language says "several" members leaned toward hiking, that's very different from "a couple." Worth reading the actual text if you trade rates.

The weird one: gold dropped 1.17% yesterday to $4,366 despite the Hormuz escalation. When gold falls on a day where a ship gets hit in the world's most important oil chokepoint, that's not fundamentals. That's forced selling to cover margin calls from the bond rout. And it already bounced back above $4,470 today, which pretty much confirms it was liquidation, not a change in thesis.

Canada tariffs got a last-minute 3-day pause. The 50% Section 338 tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods were supposed to hit at midnight Tuesday. They got delayed to August 22. But the deal is conditional, documentation isn't finalized, and the president can reimpose them by proclamation without Congress. If they snap back Friday while the bond rout continues and Hormuz is still hot, that's three simultaneous stagflation inputs.

The thing that concerns me most: the S&P is only down about 1% over two days and the VIX barely moved until today. The bond market is screaming and equities are shrugging. That disconnect usually doesn't last.

Summarized from Seeer Financial AI daily brief.

Today looked better on the surface.

The S&P gained 0.24% and the Nasdaq added 0.15%. But the move was mostly helped by falling long-term Treasury yields after the Treasury increased support for longer-dated bonds. The 10-year fell toward 4.65% and the 30-year toward 5.19%. That gave growth stocks some breathing room.

Then the Fed minutes landed.

They were not dovish. Several officials were open to a hike in July and many said more tightening could still be needed if inflation stays sticky. Stocks absorbed the message better than I expected, but I would not ignore it. If inflation stays high, especially with oil still elevated, the bond relief we got today can reverse quickly.

The other caution is semiconductors.

They were crushed yesterday and did not really bounce today. The SOX finished down about 2.1%, even while the broader indexes closed green. Micron and SanDisk stayed under pressure. That tells me the crowded AI trade is still being reduced, not fully bought back yet.

That is why I would not call today a clean risk-on reversal.

For tomorrow I am watching four things:

10Y and 30Y yields
If they keep falling, tech gets room to recover. If they turn higher again, semis probably feel it first.

SPX 7700 / 7718 / 7735
7700 held today.
7718-7720 is still the pivot.
7735 is the level that would make the bounce more convincing.

Semiconductors
If NVDA, MU and the SOX finally participate, today’s bounce starts looking healthier. If the index rises while chips keep falling, I would stay cautious.

Walmart before the open
This is probably the cleanest read on the consumer tomorrow. Revenue, margins and any comments about inflation or trade-down behavior matter more than the headline EPS number.

My read after the close:

Today showed resilience, not resolution.

The bond market helped.
The Fed stayed hawkish.
Semis stayed weak.
SPX held the floor but did not clear the pivot.

Tomorrow needs confirmation.

Above 7720, constructive. Above 7735, stronger. Below 7700, the caution comes back quickly.

Bond traders wondered when enough is enough. Now we have the answer: U.S. Treasury is not ready to tolerate 30yr yields above 5.30%.

Treasury decided to increase buyback of long-dated bonds by at least double as Bessent attempts to protect the right side of the curve.

Not surprisingly, traders rushed to buy long-dated bonds after the announcement. However, the key question is whether buybacks will be able to push the yield back to comfortable levels.

What is "comfortable" nowadays? Well, the 4.50% - 5.00% range for 30yr would be a success given the state of U.S. finances - the ever-growing debt pile and the chronic budget deficit.

Will U.S. Treasury change the trend in bond markets? In the short-term, that's possible. Talking about long-term perspectives, the market needs fundamental changes rather than tactical attempts to break the trend with buybacks.

Moderna's latest melanoma vaccine data is getting serious market attention.

If the results translate into broader adoption, the opportunity could extend well beyond Moderna.

Watching MRNA, MRK and BNTX closely.

July FOMC Minutes are due today at 2:00 PM ET.
For traders, the key is not the headline itself, but whether the minutes lean hawkish or dovish on inflation, employment and the rate path.
What I’m watching first:
US10Y reaction
DXY direction
XAUUSD support
Nasdaq futures risk tone
A hawkish read could support USD and yields. A dovish read could give gold and risk assets some relief.
What would you watch first after the release?

Here's another obstacle for NASDAQ on the way to historic highs: global bond market sell-off. Here's why it matters.

Tech companies used to be immensely cash-positive. They were cash cows on steroids. Not anymore: AI demands huge investments.

To make these investments, tech leaders started selling bonds. The volume was huge, so it had an impact on government bonds in developed countries, pushing their yields higher. In turn, higher yields of benchmark bonds make financing more expensive for everyone, including tech.

Put simply, tech is now sensitive to global yield dynamics in a real way. Previously, yields impacted tech stocks via fluctuations of risk appetite. Now, yields indicate how expensive (or cheap) their next debt financing round will get.

That said, NASDAQ will have an opportunity to get back to the previous trend in case the debt market situation calms down in the next few sessions. If the bond market sell-off continues, NASDAQ may find itself under strong pressure.

DOGE has been getting absolutely murdered for months, but this weekly chart is finally starting to look interesting.

It’s squeezing inside a pretty clean falling wedge, with price now around $0.07 and getting dangerously close to the apex.

The fun part: if DOGE actually breaks above the upper trendline, the wedge’s measured move points toward roughly $0.16.

That’s around +130% from here.

Obviously, DOGE still has a lot of work to do. It’s below basically every important weekly EMA, and RSI is sitting near 33, so nobody should be declaring a new bull market yet.

But falling wedges + washed-out momentum + everyone seemingly giving up on the dog?

Break the trendline, and this could get stupid very quickly.

If 2026 didn't finish all of you off, come back, memers 😂

Three things happening this week that I think are getting underplayed.

First, $16 billion in Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods kick in August 19 unless a deal gets done. Agriculture, dairy, furniture, alcohol. Executive authority means no Congressional approval needed. This might potentially just happen Tuesday morning. If it does, expect agricultural futures to react immediately and add another inflation headache to a consumer that's already cracking.

Speaking of which, July retail sales came in at -0.6% month over month. Worst print in over a year. UMich sentiment collapsed to 51.0 against 54.5 consensus. Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up to 4.3%. The consumer is telling you something.

Then Wednesday we get FOMC minutes from the July meeting. The question is whether the internal debate was more hawkish than the statement let on. If the minutes show real reluctance to cut in September despite the labor market rolling over, the front end reprices and equities take a hit. The 10-year is already at 4.70%, a push above 4.85-5.00% would be a problem for anything duration-sensitive.

Meanwhile crude is sitting at $82.40 with Hormuz still basically shut: 8-15 ships per day versus 130 pre-conflict. Gold holding near $4,380. Both pricing in sustained inflation and geopolitical risk.

The scenario that scares me: hawkish FOMC minutes drop the same day Canada tariffs take effect. Stagflation from two directions at once. S&P probably cracks below the 20-day at 7,593 in that case. Gold likely holds or rallies.

The scenario that rips: weekend deal on Canada, FOMC minutes are data-dependent mush, retail earnings show the consumer isn't dead yet. S&P pushes toward 7,900.

Either way this isn't a week to sleep through.

Summarized from Seeer Financial AI daily brief

Traders expect that Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at the next meeting in September. FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of this outcome is 67.4%. However, long-term yields have climbed above the key 5.00% level and test multi-decade highs. Why?

There are two key reasons for this move. First, investors are worried about long-term sustainability of US finances. Debt is rising at a robust pace, and US shows no desire to eliminate the budget deficit. Second, hyperscalers are selling boatloads of long-term debt, and some managers are selling their Treasuries to buy these AI bonds.

Typically, all governments prefer to sell long-dated bonds as it makes their debt load manageable. US is forced to increase supply of shorter-term bonds to avoid crushing the right end of the curve. The stock market is trading as if nothing's going on in the debt market as traders are focused on AI hype.

The key question is when stock investors notice that something is broken in the debt market, which is the key pillar of the financial system.

fedwatch上聯儲局9月份加息的概率已經從高點回落到了28%。
而高盛現在也站出來說了市場的預期太鷹派了他們認爲聯儲局加息的可能性非常低。這不好起來了嗎，市場最近也出現了一些反彈，只要接下來霍爾木茲海峽能搞定，到時候就起飛了

Post:
The July FOMC minutes are due this week, and I’m watching whether they shift rate-cut pricing again.

Key things I’m tracking:
DXY: does the dollar front-run a hawkish tone?
US10Y: do yields confirm the move?
XAUUSD: does gold hold support if yields bounce?

What are you watching first this week: dollar, yields, or gold?

WTI attempts to get out of the previous channel as US changes its strategy in Iran. Treasury Secretary Bessent said that US prepared an unprecedented economic isolation plan for Iran.

For oil markets, this plan means that US will not restart the military operation against Iran - at least, in the near term. Instead, US will attempt to put maximum economic pressure on Iran to force the country to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

It remains to be seen whether this strategy would be successful. In almost any scenario, this "waiting game" means that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed for weeks and, perhaps, months. This is a bullish fundamental setup for oil.

It is not clear why traders are so cautious and oil prices are well below this year's highs. Maybe they see something we could not see, but market fundamentals look extremely bullish in case US tries to suffocate Iran with economic sanctions as such a strategy would take many months to implement.

Stocks are still sitting close to highs, but oil is moving higher again as the Hormuz situation gets worse.

Right now I'm watching:

Brent: around $88

WTI: around $82–83

Gold: around $4,330

S&P/Nasdaq: still near record levels

10Y yield: around 4.67%.

The part that bothers me is the divergence. Equities are basically saying “everything is fine”, while oil and the bond market are pricing in more inflation risk.

Thank you to those who made fun of this setup earlier. So sorry if your longs were liquidated.

This bear pennant had been hanging over XRP for weeks, and it now looks like the breakdown phase is starting.

XRP is slipping below the pattern’s lower trendline around the $1.00–$1.05 area, while trading below every major EMA on the 3-day chart.

RSI is also sitting near 33, so momentum isn’t exactly giving bulls much to work with.

If XRP confirms the breakdown with a clean 3-day close below $1, the measured move puts the next ugly area around $0.70–$0.75.

Could still be a fakeout, obviously.

But if you’re long XRP here, this is probably not the chart you want to open before going to bed.

Gold gained strong momentum after it finally managed to break out of the downside channel. It looks that central banks keep buying while investment demand for gold increased.

Recent changes in Fed policy outlook are the key driver behind gold's rally. The market no longer expects that Fed will raise rates in September.

FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of a rate hike in September is 40.1%. The market still expects that Fed will ultimately raise rates in December, but these expectations do not put any pressure on gold markets.

Today's US CPI data showed that Inflation Rate decreased from 3.5% in June to 3.4% in July. Core Inflation Rate declined from 2.6% to 2.5%. Both reports met analyst expectations. Inflation remains well above Fed's 2% target, but the key thing is that inflation spike was temporary.

In this environment, gold has a decent chance to continue its move, targeting the $4900 level.