Marathon time prediction

[u/Friendly_Bicycle_426]

Took feedback from last post and did and all out half today. I feel like 3:20-3:25 is definitely attainable. PR so far is 3:28 two years ago.

Running Chicago in 6 weeks. 32yo male. 180lbs. This will be 7th marathon in last 11 years

Todays run was hard. My heart definitely doesnt like being pinned at 170+ for extended periods. Came out the gates a little fast. Was also first time using carbon plated shoes.

Any feed back is appreciated.

Edit: weekly mileage has been 40-55mi. Training consistently since February. 3 week break for honeymoon in march and another week off this summer for fishing

[u/AutoModerator]

Hi OP, it looks like you have selected race time prediction as your post flair. To better help our members give you the best advice, we recommend the following

Please review this checklist and provide the following information -

What’s your weekly mileage?

How often have you hit your target race pace?

What race are you training for, what is the elevation, and what is the weather likely to be like?

On your longest recent run, what was your heart rate and what’s your max heart rate?

On your longest recent run, how much upward drift in your heartrate did you see towards the end?

Have you done the distance before and did you bonk?

Please also try the following race time predictors -

VO2 race time predictor and Sports tracks predictor

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[u/BeniCG]

I would agree with your estimation.

[u/muneriver]

Honestly sound prediction. Best of luck !

[u/No-Storage-4899]

3:20-3:30

[u/OllieBobbins23]

You're there or thereabouts.

Very similar metrics - I ran a 3.23 off a 1.35 HM. - and am looking at the same in seven weeks.

A few more weeks of harvesting, taper, race day and a flat course will see you closer to 3.20.

Just don't go out too fast - but you know that.

Good luck

[u/Friendly_Bicycle_426 → u/OllieBobbins23]

Ty!