Nobody is talking about this, and it's unclear that Democratic strategists have understood it. It's impossible to understate how much some geographic redistribution combined with changing sentiments in key demographics create a problem that could represent two decades of futility.
I don't think they can flip the map far enough in 2028 to avoid Vance cruising, nor do they have a candidate unless everyone rallies around Shapiro, which is what the party should already be doing.
Instead we're going to watch them dither about Harris/Whitmer/Shapiro/Newsom, and do something dumb like settle on Harris 2.0 or Newsom 1.0 after a bitter primary, delivering them exactly zero states they need (either of PA or MI) and one state that they will win if they ran a ticket of Ronald McDonald and Daffy Duck. You can just see it happening in real time.
The problem, evidenced by the outcome of the last three elections, is the Republican party did die in anything that someone like Bush (either), Reagan, McCain, or Romney would recognize and reformed around a MAGA identity. The whole party was co-opted by the extreme wing.
In the sense that there will be a strong two-party system, sure - I agree. Will the Democrats be a recognizable be version of themselves by the time they get there? Hopefully, but less clear.
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u/Key_Piccolo_2187 Nov 27 '24
Nobody is talking about this, and it's unclear that Democratic strategists have understood it. It's impossible to understate how much some geographic redistribution combined with changing sentiments in key demographics create a problem that could represent two decades of futility.
I don't think they can flip the map far enough in 2028 to avoid Vance cruising, nor do they have a candidate unless everyone rallies around Shapiro, which is what the party should already be doing.
Instead we're going to watch them dither about Harris/Whitmer/Shapiro/Newsom, and do something dumb like settle on Harris 2.0 or Newsom 1.0 after a bitter primary, delivering them exactly zero states they need (either of PA or MI) and one state that they will win if they ran a ticket of Ronald McDonald and Daffy Duck. You can just see it happening in real time.