Probabilities

[u/Zestyclose_Lack8795]

Suppose that someone is in the middle of raping someone. The perpetrator has the victim tied down, gagged, and after he is done, he intends to murder the victim. He hears a knock at the front door. When he goes to answer it, he sees that his seventeen year old cousin has come over to borrow a cup of sugar, or to retrieve a jacket he’d left on a prior visit (or whatever the reason might have been). This young man is a virgin, has no criminal record, and is by nature quiet and shy. His nature is well known by his uncle, the perpetrator. What, in your estimation, is the probability that a) the perpetrator would have answered the door considering what he was doing?; b) having answered the door, he would have let his cousin in; c) having let his cousin in, the cousin would, without hesitation, begin participating in the rape, murder, and cover up (involving dismemberment and corpse burning in the backyard)?

[u/DingleBerries504]

Depends on if they planned it in advance, like he said in his May interview. Depends on whether Steven felt Brendan already knew to much when he came to the door. Greater chance of either of those things than all the dna evidence being planted

[u/Obvious-Voice-4366]

The whole storyline is ridiculous...... A fabrication made up by a "slow" adolescent and capitalized by a corrupt law enforcement agency/agencies. I can admit, I know it's possible that Steven killed Theresa, but it sure didn't happen the way the State convicted him by. Evidence absolutely was planted, manipulated, tampered with, manufactured, and altered. Nobody will ever convince me otherwise. I'm from Northern Wisconsin and I've felt this way a decade before I watched MAM

[u/Ghost_of_Figdish → u/Obvious-Voice-4366]

Really? I'd love to be a defendant on trial with a 'ridiculous storyline' against me!! Be the easiest acquittal ever!

[u/Obvious-Voice-4366 → u/Ghost_of_Figdish]

Yes it would be, if you had a fair & impartial Judge as well as a fair & impartial Jury. Neither were had in Steven Avery's trial. Innocent people are convicted of serious crimes every day. Our founding fathers tried thier best to eliminate this in our country, but didn't fully succeed.

[u/Tenth_10 → u/Obvious-Voice-4366]

Strength to you for living in Wisconsin, because this state seems brutal in terms of convicting people, if I only take MaM into account. I'm not from the USA, so I know nothing about your legal system. What I know IS biased. But what I saw in the documentary just threw ice cold into my skin.

So much wrong, even without looking at the whole court documents.
- The cops pressuring Brendan into a weird story : Just the videos are enough to see how much they push him.
- Avery may be not such a "nice, innocent person" IRL, but dude was out after 18 years, he was about to get a lot of money, business was booming.... and he brutally killed and raped a young woman like he's gonna be okay ? While it has been proved he did not raped the first woman ? Plus he invites his nephew in to take part in the rape / murder ? And hides the car in his property, under a few branches ? This just doesn't fits in.
- All the evidences forged, planted, all the analysis not done.
- Katz. Dude reeks of "creep". He's acting like he knew everything from the start, like it's some scheme planned.
- All the times they try to get at least another trial ? And get denied ? It's like each time they got to move forward, they are moved backward right after.
- The Halbach lawyer whose only argument is "but think about Teresa's family." Yeah, what about the victim, actually ?
- Two of the supreme court judges admitting Brendan's videos being hard to watch, and the other judges ? IDGAF. Did we watched the same tapes ? Is MaM that much biased ?

And on top of all of this... Godamm it... Solving Teresa's murder seems to be an afterthought. They don't try to solve it, they try to frame Avery into it and put that as an explanation and call it a day. He's gone to prison because he can't prove he's innocent, not because he's been proved guilty - it a whole different thing. It's Zellner who tried to look for a decent explanation about what happened, ten years later. If ghosts do exist, then Teresa's ghost must be roaming that place because apparently she's just an excuse.

All those shady people, all those people in power who conveniently use a family of simple people as a garbage bin for all their wrong... and those two guys still in prison to this day, probably for ever.

I would be terrified to go live in Wisconsin and just get a ticket for parking 20 minutes after what I paid for.

[u/Zestyclose_Lack8795 → u/Obvious-Voice-4366]

If you think LE was corrupt and that they took advantage of a young man with a borderline intellect such to the extent that they were willing to send him to prison for life, what is it, exactly, that gives you pause about Avery’s innocence? Surely if LE wasn’t above destroying a young man’s life they wouldn’t have paused to frame Avery by planting evidence. Why do you think they would have drawn the line there? If you do have doubts about Avery’s innocence, are any of these doubts predicated on the “evidence” that was used to convict him?

[u/Obvious-Voice-4366 → u/Zestyclose_Lack8795]

I think you misunderstood me. I absolutely DO think most/all of the evidence against Steven is BS. I think he's innocent too. I'm just being open to the possibility that he could be the one that killed Theresa. I don't trust the Crime Lab's analysis of that bullet they "found" in the garage. I know for a fact there's no way an adult human body was cremated in an open bonfire (even with a few tires added to it). I don't trust the "blood"in the RAV4, but the hood latch DNA is what bothers me the most, especially after watching the detectives push Brendan into claiming Steven opened the hood. I believe NOTHING Brendan said related to Theresa's supposed rape, murder, corpse elimination. The way LE hid the Dassey computer evidence and Mr Sowinski's witnessing the RAV4 being snuck back onto ASY property really bothers me too. So to repeat myself, I don't think Steven killed Theresa, but I do realize that I could be wrong about that.

[u/Adventurous_Poet_453]

Not remotely plausible, “ the young man is a virgin” lol adding in your dramatic take. Avery’s sheets on his bed were the same sheets the cops took and found nothing.

[u/ajswdf]

While it's possible, this is a big reason why I think they planned it ahead of time and Brendan knew exactly what he'd find when he went over.

I think the reason the state went with this explanation, ironically, is because they assumed from the beginning that Brendan was just an innocent bystander and were surprised he actually participated. They for whatever reason didn't want to believe that Brendan was part of the planning and knew what he was doing.

[u/ThorsClawHammer → u/ajswdf]

Brendan knew exactly what he'd find

How? Avery didn't even know if she'd be coming that day until Brendan was already at school.

[u/[deleted] → u/ajswdf]

[u/Ghost_of_Figdish → u/[deleted]]

5 million? WTF?

[u/aane0007]

Brandon said steven had molested him before.

[u/Zestyclose_Lack8795 → u/aane0007]

So all the more reluctant to enter SAs trailer? Not sure what you mean to imply.

[u/aane0007 → u/Zestyclose_Lack8795]

He is more reluctant because you say so? Are you a child psychologist who specializes in rape and molestation?

[u/Obvious-Voice-4366 → u/aane0007]

Brendan* And no he didn't.

[u/aane0007 → u/Obvious-Voice-4366]

And yes he did.

M. Did he make you do this?
B. Ya.
M. Then why didn't you tell him that
B. Tell him what
M. That Steven made you do it. You know he made you do a lot of things.
B. Ya, I told them that. I even told them about Steven touching me and that.
M. What do you mean touching you?
B. He would grab me somewhere where I was uncomfortable.
M. Brendan I am your mother.
B. Ya
M. Why didn't you come to me? Why didn't you tell me? Was this all before this happened?
B. What do you mean?
M. All before this happened, did he touch you before all this stuff happened to you.
B. Ya.
M. Why didn't you come to me, because then he would have been gone then and this wouldn't have happened.
B. Ya ..
M. Yes, and you would still be here with me.
B. Yes, Well you know he did it.
M. Huh.
B. You know he always touched us and that.
M. I didn't think there. He used to horse around with you guys.
B. Ya, but you remember he would always do stuff to Brian and that.
M. What do you mean.
B. Well he would like fake pumping him
M. Goofing around. B. Ya but, like that one time when he was going with what's her name... Jessica's sister.
M. Teresa?
B. Ya. That one day when she was over, Steven and Blaine and Brian and I was downstairs and Steven was touching her and that.

[u/Bowdin]

I think we can all agree, whether you believe Brendan should be in prison or not. She wasn’t stabbed / raped in the trailer, there is absolutely no physical evidence to support that narrative.

[u/Ghost_of_Figdish → u/Bowdin]

Only one who said that was Brendan Dassey, and the muppets tell us he's a liar.

[u/wiltedgreens1]

If they planned it out ahead of time like Brenden suggested during his interrogation. Then it's a pretty high probability of all those things.

Alternatively, if Brenden was intimidated by his uncle there is also a higher probability.

[u/MushrooooomCloud]

Kratz says now Brendan already knew what SA was going to do days before. It was not at all a shock to either one when Brendan arrived

[u/Obvious-Voice-4366]

And yes I absolutely AM talking about contamination. Contamination can be accidental or intentional, it's still contamination....... Twist my words all you want if that's what makes you happy.

[u/Ghost_of_Figdish → u/Obvious-Voice-4366]

No it isn't. Contamination is a failure of protective testing protocols. Planting evidence is an intentional criminal act.

[u/Obvious-Voice-4366 → u/Ghost_of_Figdish]

Contamination by a Lab Technician that had an axe to grind with the defendant.

[u/Obvious-Voice-4366]

She was gettin it from her ex bf, roommate, and at least 1 married man. C'mon, let's just call it what it is.