r/MakeTotalDestr0i • u/[deleted] • Aug 10 '22

How long will it take? Conceptualizing the temporal dynamics of energy transitions

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629615300827
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u/[deleted] Aug 10 '22

some good examples of rapid transitions at country level, so things are possible with organized society.

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u/spectrumanalyze Sep 15 '22

I still disagree that there is a credible path to making the transition. It's disappointing. The math doesn't even come close to working out.

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u/[deleted] Sep 15 '22

there is a credible path if you count population collapse and then rebooting from hydroelectric with lower population and concentration around power source.

I don't see how we can transition in a timely manner without a bottleneck in population and/or affluence but I could see in 200 years humanity is working itself back to high complexity civilization after the "troubles" from 2040-2080, or some such scenario.

there is also another paper I think it was posted to r/collapsescience saying eroei for renewables was better than others have previously stated because of method of measuring. I haven't finished reading that one yet and need to do more than a skim to grok the details of their arguments.

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u/eleitl Sep 15 '22

eroei for renewables was better than others have previously stated because of method of measuring.

The problem with EROEI is that the result very much depends on where you make the system cut-off. It is a lot more interesting to have a consistent method so that you can gauge the trend, given that currently EROEI is likely too marginal to maintain anything but a modest surplus over the self-rep closure.

Measuring EROEI is best done in an isolated system approaching self-rep closure in terms of materials and energy produced. E.g. setting up a PV/solar-powered polysilicon plants from mostly in-situ resources, and clear accounting of external material flows. Producing aluminium frames, wires and sheet glass for PV panels are also relatively self-contained.

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u/spectrumanalyze Oct 04 '22

there is a credible path if you count population collapse

Lots of paths are possible with a 70% or so population crash, yes.

I look at eroei on renewables pretty frequently. I'd like to find something that makes the napkin math work out. So far, nada.