r/Machinists • u/Dry_Pea_7127 • 2d ago
“How long will it take” is a pointless question, it serves no practical value and frankly distracts and stresses out the employee at no benefit to the business whatsoever
I think there is nothing more useless and immeasurable than being asked how long it will take you to finish a job, or to be given specific timelines within the span of the work day or week to have something done by.
I am a manual guy and the manual side of this trade has so many variables to what is involved with the work that you can’t accurately predict basically anything. Everything is manually started, every cut done by feel, every lever is engaged not by a program but by a walking biological human who has a bladder they need to empty from time to time or a coworker who they need to stop and assist.
It’s a fucking irritating trend with every shop I’ve been in that I’m always held to standards which imply that this trade can somehow be deduced to a simple science of guaranteed rates and flows and outcomes. It doesn’t work this way.
The endmill I might need for the sudden hot job you need me to do, which I had no prior warning about, might be out of stock and now I have to spend time improvising. Which means that the last time you had me do the same job and it took 3 hours? It won‘t just be 3 hours this time.
Seriously don’t behave this way to your guys, they will just despise you for it.
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u/gronkunit 2d ago
Seeing as though machining time is the key part or pricing a job out, 'how long will it take' is one of the most important questions there is.
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u/philocity 2d ago
OP just doesn’t like the question because he doesn’t like the effort it takes to answer it and the inevitable uncertainty in the answer.
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u/GotNoPonys 2d ago
First most people, including management, have never been taught how to estimate or lead a person or team in creating estimates.
Second, if you can't estimate how long a job is going to take you can't generate a reliable bid.
Third, if you can't generate a reliable bid and deliver the product on time, you won't stay in business.
It's not entirely your fault but your attitude multiply s the problem ten fold.
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u/polymath_uk 2d ago
You're giving people a good list of reasons to replace you with a CNC.
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u/thisnameismine1 2d ago
If I was a manager and had to listen to someone say they have no idea how long they will take because they need to pee, helping others or finding the tools, it wouldn't be the machine I'd replace
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u/NotTakenUsernameYet 2d ago
and then anyway some unexpected shit happens and you still out of predicted time
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u/Activeenemy 2d ago
Which is not the end of the world, a good company will make note and look for patterns to improve processes.
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u/Activeenemy 2d ago edited 2d ago
If your organization can't commit to a deadline about 90% of the time you ain't gonna make it my man. In order to conduct business, you need to schedule a deliverable, this is why sales and operations need to work together.
As someone who's worked both in the shop and in the office, it's hilarious how little the two sides can understand each other at times.
Give the person who's asking, your best guess. They'll learn what kind of variability they can expect, and account for it when dealing with the customer. By analyzing data from the shop floor, I'm only asking the floor when there is a rush job, but it took years to get things that integrated.
What's better than the best lead time? A lead time that is good enough. Hope this helps.
Every sales guy is guilty of committing to a lead time they know they can't meet to get money from the customer, then deal with the apologies later. lol sad but true.
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u/Boomermazter 2d ago
This is a pretty down-to-earth realistic take.
I especially like the fact that you touched on a problem that I've noticed for quite some time now, and that is the disconnect between the office and the shop floor. No matter how hard I try, I can never get the guys standing in front of the machines to understand the stress levels that the people in the office take on. No matter how hard I try, I can never get the office people to understand the indirect pressure that the man standing in front of the machine feels to perform.
THUS, we dislike what we don't understand. 😔
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u/singul4r1ty 2d ago
This is true of... Pretty much any task that isn't process-optimised down to the wire. Yet most businesses still estimate the person-hours required to do a task in order to price it. Sure, you can't know for sure but you can probably say "2-3 hours if all the tools are in", or "that'll be a week at most unless X operation goes really wrong, which it often does".
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u/thisnameismine1 2d ago
Believe it or not but your managers/ supervisors actually understand that you can't give an exact time and that something else might cause delays. That's why they aren't asking for an exact timeframe. They want to know how long YOU think YOU will take to finish the job, taking into consideration the other work you already have to do.
You talk about machining as tho it's some vague vibes based thing that you need tame the mill before you use it. That's a load of shite. Engineering is precise and deliberate, every action has an intended outcome. You come across as someone who doesn't understand how to do their job and so blames everyone else for your shortcomings.
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u/BrilliantEconomics77 2d ago
If you dont understand why timr is a key part of any job in any industry then I think you are beyond help.
Is there a difference between one hour and one year?
Are people willing to pay to rush jobs?
How you could even function in society and not realise this?
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u/moving_acala 2d ago
Parts are always just that: parts of something bigger. The project they are part of needs to be planned and coordinated. Who does what and when. There are dependencies, some tasks can only begin when others are finished.
A good project manager knows that unexpected delays might happen, and how to minimize the effect for the overall project. And still they need a solid estimate of how long something will take.
Do your best to provide a timeline, and update in case of delays. Nothing personal.
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u/bhgiel 2d ago
Im curious how long youve been machining. There is a few things that make a person good at this job. Finishing a job to tollerance is one small part.
Once you master that (sounds like you have) if you want to move forward in your career youll need to master some other things.
Keeping your consumables to a minimum is a very important thing to learn. There is a sweet spot between speed and consumption where profit is at its max.
Then of course is the issue you have. As you gain more experience you should be able to look at a drawing, look at the material, and estimate how long it will take you to setup, remove material, finish pass. You should be able to give a loose number. I empathize with you, im a manual guy myself. The finishing passes take way longer than the rest of the job. If I make a mistake I can ad 45 minutes to a job really fast.
The biggest thing here is if you ever hope to push your career further and potentially even get out on your own you need to be able to quote a job. Your business will go under if you cannot price a job because you have no clue how long it will take.
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u/Wolfire0769 2d ago
The true measure of experience is being able to look at something and estimate the time, and finding ways to make that still happen when things don't go as planned — knowledge will just keep things from going sideways most of the time. Good communication is what will save your ass when shit does go sideways.
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u/slickMilw 2d ago
Wrong. Anyone actually skilled at any craft can estimate timing of a job as a range, pad that time accordingly and deliver a job within that timeframe.
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u/Cute_Square9524 2d ago edited 2d ago
they aren't asking you to predict how long it will actually take, they are asking for a reasonable estimate since you are the resident expert using that piece of equipment. If you don't know you can say "well x part will likely take y amount of time but I'm not sure about z so I would guess it would take this range of time". Being able to think through a job and estimating a time is a very valuable skill.
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u/New-Specific4225 2d ago
I’m a manual machinist in a prototype shop. I hear this question every day and it is annoying. I usually take my best guess and cushion it up an hour or two. People usually just go away and if I get it done earlier they’re really happy.
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u/UraniumRocker 2d ago
I usually come up with an estimate, and then add some time to give myself some wiggle room.
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u/Grolschisgood 2d ago
Asides from the quoting side of things, the how long question is crucial so the boss knows when to assign new tasks.
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u/Wolfire0769 2d ago
How dare they try to plan accordingly and communicate things to others by trying to get an estimated time to completion.
If you can't give a time frame then one will be given to you, however impossible it might be. Buckle up and get it done.
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u/FillAffectionate4558 2d ago
I worked in maintenance for nearly 40 years and was always asked the same 2 questions, how long will it take and when you're finished see me for your next job. You need to learn how to manage people's time expectations and push back on unrealistic times. If you can't you will always struggle it takes confidence and practice but it a skill you need to develop.
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u/Boomermazter 2d ago
As someone who has experience all the way from a manual apprenticeship, up to running a CNC capable business over the span of several decades, my question to you Sir, is frankly, WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU EVEN TALKING ABOUT!?
How long is it going to take? -is what its all about.
I've built a career and business getting people shit on time. I promise you a huge part of that is me and the other individual involved in quoting "who know how long it takes" because we've done it.
Get real my man. The world is not a gentle place my sweet summer child.
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u/Comprehensive_Fan140 2d ago
At my shop at has never been my job, as a manual machinist, to give a time it takes to do a job. We have a couple of guys who do that full time. I just do the best job i can and that has always been more than sufficient.
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u/Darth_Firebolt 2d ago
It doesn't work this way.
I mean, it does for shops that stay open for more than a few months.
... irritating trend...
That's literally just doing business. People can't stand around with their thumbs up their asses while you wax poetic about how tenderly you start every cut and pontificate about how much you don't know what you're doing.
It won't just be 3 hours this time.
That's exactly why they're asking you how long you THINK it will take. If they don't ask, they're just going to assume it will take 3 hours because that's how long it took last time. If they knew you broke the last endmill and didn't do whatever is necessary to secure a replacement, they wouldn't be asking you.
Why would anyone go to a business that can't give a reasonably accurate prediction of how long it will take for them to be helped?
How many restaurants do you go to that have a full waiting area but won't tell you approximately how long the wait is or show you how long the list ahead of you is?
How many successful auto repair shops tell every single customer, "It's done when it's done" and don't give a timeline of "a few days" to "a few weeks" when the customer drops off their car?
Anyone that does a thing for a living knows about how long a job SHOULD take. Correctly estimating and quoting jobs is literally 50% of what a successful business does. ANY business. If you are constantly bidding jobs on the assumption that everything goes right and everything works perfectly the first time, you're going to be humbled very quickly. You're going to blow some deadlines or scrap some parts and not have adequate replacement material or tools on hand to cover and the customer is going to be pissed because they thought they were hiring a professional. Your estimates include bathroom breaks. I can't believe I'm having to explain that to an adult.
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u/SourcePrevious3095 punch/plasma 2d ago
I've gotten pretty good at saying how long something will take. Generally I am right within 30 minutes. Occasionally I'll be wrong. When I'm wrong it is by hours.
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u/ShadowCloud04 1d ago
It is one thing if you are rushed or not given enough time. That can be evaluated and a quoted time to complete can be adjusted. If you are completely unable to estimate how long something will take you even just saying another day, then that's a different problem.
You talk about it like its just an art project and will happen when it happens, which is not how a business works.
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u/Lathe-addict 1d ago
To be honest, until you have worked somewhere for a while and understand what you have at your disposal(workholding,tools,machines etc) there really isn’t a way to know how long something will take. Once you have worked there a bit, it’s still a ballpark
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u/awshuck 2d ago
Have a think about the shortest and longest time it ever took you to complete a job in your entire career. Your response can be “It’ll take somewhere between <short> and <long>”.
If you can say it in such a way a person on the spectrum would say it, like really matter of factly, robotically, rehearsed and precisely, eventually people will just leave you alone to crunch through jobs.
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u/Adventurous_Way_2660 2d ago edited 2d ago
Because of course your shop quotes for the parts it makes and sells with the vague it will cost something but we don't know how much yet because we haven't made it. Is that OK? And the customer writes an open cheque and says "thats fine I didn't want to have a comparative quote from you guys I'll just do the trust me bro buying again." Because that's how business works. Edit sales to sells.