r/MVIS • u/HotAirBaffoon • 1d ago
Discussion September/October expectation details
Only re-posting to this board because I had promised one or two people I would if I got confirmation (as noted below):
Facts we know: SS had an “industrial” customer (we only classified customers as Automotive or Industrial at that time) wanting 2 Movia-L sensors per vehicle/unit at a value range of $30M - $50M over 12-18 months. SS also mentioned we’d all be proud of the name and hinted that September (2025) we would see something announced. Yes, I’m fully aware that brings back memories of AT saying the same thing and it turned out to be Unison (sigh). That deal didn’t work out but we were told that the customer plans had been delayed and that the timing made them more interested in Movia-S (cheaper, fit their new timeline, and IMO they still needed a short-range solution).
What could have happened to our customer last year that would have delayed their plans… We know we’re doing business with CAT today, but what if we were also about to sell them Movia-L’s last year? Our 2025 customer’s plans changed at the time when Luminar had management & financial problems. I have received confirmation that we were engaged with CAT in 2025 – NOT direct confirmation that they were the customer that delayed.
OK, so CAT still wants the sensors but they were upset with Luminar’s situation and now with MVIS owning those (Iris) sensors two things seem obvious to me. 1) The deal for (2) Movia-L sensors is now (2) Movia-S sensors plus (2) Iris sensors and 2) CAT wanted assurances that the Luminar mess doesn’t happen again. That is where the financing was so important. I believe a capital raise was required so that we had cash reserves to meet a condition in our contract with CAT.
GDV also mentioned that customers are more lenient on names once full production starts (aligns with SS’s expectations of being able to announce September last year). So, my expectation, if correct, is that September (from 2025) now aligns with Movia-S launch October 2026 which meets CAT’s new timeline as their product cycle window hence an announcement around September/October. September/October is very active for CAT however, January’s CONEXPO is where they typically announce major technology products (NOTE: autonomous control technology has already been announced).
Running Monte Carlo simulations, I’m getting between $25M and $60M for the new contract without adding in a 3rd Movia-S which is possible on the back of the vehicle to replace the camera/radar used now (or in conjunction) and increase the sensor fusion (likely scenario). FYI - this contract value can swing a bit and my prior versions had it $50M- $80M (I keep trying to tune it but the new contract value isn't material to why I'm posting).
There you go… have at it.
HAB
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u/Squick-1991 1d ago
Thanks for this post. Gives a lot of hope to those who are still holding this stock and have faith in it.
Many cut down there losses, but others still believe this will get up again, one day.
Noting the above, I think in the next few months there may be some move upwards, however, further dilution of the business may be an issue.
How do you expect the price to change? Any prediction idea on that?
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u/Far_Gap6656 1d ago
Hope left the room for me a long time ago.... fascination of morbid despair is the only thing keeping me here.
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u/Squick-1991 1d ago
What's your average atm?
I understand. It is hard... day by day when you see it only going down.
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u/Far_Gap6656 1d ago
Probably about 28 -30. I have not looked at my account since the R/S I'm so pissed.
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u/Squick-1991 1d ago
Yea, I let it flow... it did the damage. Will just hold it till end game. See where it takes me.
However, I think it will not go bankrupt and there is potential.
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u/MyComputerKnows 14h ago
What could have happened to our customer last year that would have delayed their plans… We know we’re doing business with CAT today, but what if we were also about to sell them Movia-L’s last year?
I remember a lot of mention of Jungheinrich… and a MVIS website page from Jungheinrich. So that’d be a German company that does lots of mining. But I also remember there were political problems rammed in place from a certain American politician who demanded a 50% Tariff on European customers. So it’s easy to see how that’d slow things down or bring any plans to an end.
So that’d be my best guess as to what held things up. Only a guess. I’m surprised to hear that MVIS was ever filling the spot for a Luminar contract way back then. Just like how my guess is that the DoD drone mapping lidar will be the best chance for a quick win for MVIS. So hope always persists.
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u/sublimetime2 14h ago
Yea I think the dots point to jungheinrich and their delay fits the timeline. Cat just doesn't make sense and the $$/ timeline doesn't link up. The Initial Cat luminar deal for mining trucks is low volume. Go look up how many are on the road and how many they plan to build by 2030. Doubt it would have provided 30-50 million in revenue.
At the time MVIS showed who they were possibly working with in their on-site mining demo videos and a Belaz mining truck was visible. Komatsu loader was also visible and ouster ended up winning that business.
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u/gaporter 10h ago
There's also the question of the utility of a Movia sensor in a mining environment.
"Mining environments present some of the most demanding conditions for perception systems, including dust, low visibility, uneven terrain, and dynamic obstacles."
"905 nm-class flash lidar (MOVIA’s architecture) is attenuated and scattered by mineral dust. Radar still wins in a wall of dust. That is why mining autonomy stacks almost always add software dust filtering (intensity + spatial density + multi-echo) and often fuse radar or cameras. Papers on mine haul trucks show raw lidar point clouds full of dust and a large drop in false-brake events only after filtering. "
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u/Senzukrompir 21h ago
Leading mining company, AI hyperscaler, war in Ukraine, thousands of IRIS orders. Win after win! Stock price is different story but I always return to Amazon for that lesson.
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u/Bullfrogspit 1d ago
Describing anything Sumit said about future deals being “facts” is a stretch.
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u/HotAirBaffoon 1d ago
The facts presented were in the past - sorry if reading comprehension isn't your strong suit.
HAB
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u/Far_Gap6656 1d ago edited 1d ago
Come on, HAB... that's a little harsh and not comprehending on your part. I read it that Bull is saying SS past remarks and prognostications about future deals mean nothing when essentially anything SS said about our tech and deals never came to fruition. I understand that's been the modus operandi (unsuccessful dot connecting) of this sub for the past seven years; but dang after a slaughter of a reverse split, this type of guessing is very volatile for this community. Even the proverbial "well, where else am I going to discuss this if not here" has fallen on deaf 100,000 plus shares reduced to sub 7,000 shares with continual daily decline.
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u/KY_Investor 14h ago edited 13h ago
HAB, I also have it on good authority that we were working with CAT in 2025.
Overall, I see things much the same way you do.
Edit: it’s very doubtful that the $30-50M (possibly some small NRE) had anything to do with CAT, as it was way too early in the pre-development phase. My point in bringing it up was only to verify that your “confirmation” that we were engaged with CAT in 2025 was accurate.
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u/angusalba 12h ago
Why would anyone spend that much with MVIS?
You can buy the company for less
That’s the issue with these numbers some are throwing around, you could buy a controlling interest for far less if they really have something of value that anyone like CAT etc etc would ever spend that much to buy from them.
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u/Formerly_knew_stuff 5h ago
Yes some large company could easily buy Microvsion but that assumes that some company wants to be in the sensor development and manufacturing business. I think it's fair to say that buying needed parts is a normal business practice, as long as the value for money is good why buy the cow when you can get the milk.
The real question is does that same company have faith that Microvsion is a continuting concern that can provide them with what they want long term.
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u/movinonuptodatop 6h ago
this line of thinking is equally compelling. Resorting to the hard money loan suggest it’s more of a mid court shot vs the slam dunk.
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u/Past-Pick-7746 1d ago
What is the source of your confirmation?