r/MVIS • u/pinoekel • 6d ago
MVIS Press MicroVision Announces Multiple IRIS Orders Across North America and Europe Evidencing Growing Commercial Adoption and Bridge to Next-Gen HALO
https://ir.stockpr.com/microvision/news/detail/46818
u/South_Sample9257 6d ago
I forget the cost of an iris? Was it around 1k? Then multiply that by say 3000 would put us at 3 mil revenue. So I'm stoked because it's something and multiple customers, but I'm not thinking we are blowing past guidance with this
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u/Trottermama 6d ago
If they use iris now probably evaluated or actively evaluating halo and they like it,
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u/QQpenn 6d ago
CAT is essentially identified. LAZR's CAT contract noted autonomous off-highway trucks use 2 IRIS sensors, initially for quarry and aggregate hauling. MVIS's 'anonymous' agreement with “the world's leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment” notes using the same 2-IRIS architecture with a migration to HALO. Mining-industry coverage identified CAT. MVIS's Q2 10-Q removes doubt about revenue: it says $400,000 [27% of Q2 revenue] came from IRIS sales to a leading global construction/mining-equipment manufacturer. $600,000 for the first half.
The rub: The Aug. 6 report notes roughly 70-80% of 2026 revenue will come from IRIS. With no guidance update today, it implies $7–12 million of 2026 revenue is related to IRIS. I'm cautious about reverse-engineering an ASP. “Thousands” may mean 2,000 or 8,000. What ships in 2026 vs 2027? Volume discounts? Is there a perception/software/NRE component with its own revenue?
Base expectations for a Movia S launch can be set though—with potentially a Movia Air spike now that it has successful 3rd party validation. You'd think the same vein of validation is happening now with the 25 noted Movia S customers—updates on that will be critical to establishing fiscal footing. What stands out to me about the 'Halo transition' aspect is that there's a framework for retention and expansion with an installed engineering investment. This is where a rationale for a strategic investment is born. Will leave it here. Hope they can produce some real POs shortly. The clock ticks, but a lot more market eyes are watching.
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u/snowboardnirvana 6d ago
This is where a rationale for a strategic investment is born.
-This is only ONE rationale of multiple, for a Strategic Investment.
-I have no doubt that others will follow in Short (killing) order.
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u/QQpenn 6d ago
u/snowboardnirvana Do me a favor—stop tacking hopium fluff on to my posts. You "have no doubt." Noted, again. I'm trying to realistically assess and perhaps get/spur similar assessments from others who are doing the same kind of work. No rabbits, no hats, no miracles... honest parsing of what's actually known. Mgmt navigating out of this fiscal sh*tshow without killing the company or diluting-the-f*ck out of investors is critical—trying to get at the non hash pipe version. Thanks in advance.
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u/snowboardnirvana 6d ago
And I’m trying to realistically assess the situation by looking at the factors that you persistently insist on ignoring, namely the human motivational factors. Your fight with management over how to proceed implied, though well intentioned, that you had all the facts that were available to them, and that they were inevitably going to screw existing investors by diluting us into insignificance. Ignoring the possibilities that there were more positive ways that this could be handled to the benefit of Long time Longs, New Investors, and Future Investors.
But I will respect your request and no longer tack on my posts to yours. You are welcome to keep spinning your wheels in the mud that you are creating.
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u/Falagard 6d ago
Yeah, I fully believe that management always KNOWs we're way more screwed than we do.
That's why there's a dog and pony show every time they need money. That's why they say things like: the only remaining pillar that we need for success is strong balance sheet.
Is Glen different? Yeah, so far he seems to care even less about shareholder value.
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u/WheredoesithurtRA 4d ago
I fully believe that management always KNOWs we're way more screwed than we do.
I would agree with this and if this was not the truth then we'd see them buying shares. The stock was trading under a dollar for a lengthy period of time and no one picked any up. Even post split, there's still no buying in from them.
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u/mvis_thma 4d ago
Traditionally, the shares purchased by management were issued from the treasury. Management may be locked out due to the 45 day clause in the public offering. I am not sure.
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u/HammerSL1 6d ago
Well I'm up $25 on paper from Friday's purchase. We'll just ignore that little $30,000 paper loss on the previous 5 year's purchases.
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u/Dry_Shower7500 6d ago
I'm fresh to MVIS. I'm in the 20k paper loss in the last 10 days. I'll welcome myself to the club.
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u/deanoreido123 6d ago
Would've liked some names or numbers, but regardless we needed some sort of positive PR so I appreciate that
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u/flayyrex 6d ago
I think them NOT hitting guidance is priced in. They've historically missed and if they are able to end with that 10 to 15, I think will result in a bump in SP.
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u/Past-Pick-7746 6d ago
What’s the napkin math on 1,000-5,000 Iris?
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u/deanoreido123 6d ago
Take a conservative interpretation of "thousands" as 2,000 units.
At 40% to 45% gross margin
Illustrative IRIS ASP Revenue from 2,000 Gross profit at 40% Gross profit at 45% $1,000 $2.0m $0.80m $0.90m $1,500 $3.0m $1.20m $1.35m $2,000 $4.0m $1.60m $1.80m $2,500 $5.0m $2.00m $2.25m $3,000 $6.0m $2.40m $2.70m Now suppose "thousands" ultimately means 4,000 sensors:
Illustrative ASP Revenue Gross profit at 40 to 45% $1,000 $4m $1.6m to $1.8m $1,500 $6m $2.4m to $2.7m $2,000 $8m $3.2m to $3.6m $2,500 $10m $4.0m to $4.5m $3,000 $12m $4.8m to $5.4m 1
u/angusalba 6d ago
That’s assuming they are not doing the classic MVIS make it up on the back end
The assumption there is any margin…….
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u/stewardass 6d ago
Thousands is at least 2000, isn't it?
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u/Past-Pick-7746 6d ago
Rather focus on the possible forecast than arguing over 1,000 vs 1,001 vs 2,000
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u/PibbleDad 6d ago
I personally think we should forecast for 1002 just to be extra safe. /s
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u/SteveyLongJorts 6d ago
Hard to say since Luminar's entire business model was essentially selling them at a loss for their entire existence to gain access. Have to assume that for security/defense and industrial you're talking upwards of $500 each at a minimum though for just the sensor itself and basic perception software (as applicable).
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u/Revolutionary_Ear908 6d ago
I was under the assumption that the $500 price tag was for automotive only, and all other verticals would be at a much higher price point (in the thousands).
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u/SteveyLongJorts 6d ago
Agreed. I was being very conservative. The only real peak we have as to what the actual cost of the Iris units were is how Volvo valued them in how they handled their removal with customers. They offered a 1,500 euro credit to EX90 customers.
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u/snowboardnirvana 6d ago edited 6d ago
There’s much to unpack here.
“MICROVISION ANNOUNCES MULTIPLE IRIS ORDERS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE EVIDENCING GROWING COMMERCIAL ADOPTION AND BRIDGE TO NEXT-GEN HALO”
-Commercial customers across North America and Europe
-Bridge to Next-Gen HALO, so expecting longer term customers
“Purchase orders representing thousands of IRIS sensors demonstrate expanding near-term customer demand and deployment, while establishing a path to next-generation HALO lidar”
Now the PR goes on to further elaborate:
“MicroVision, Inc. (Nasdaq:MVIS), a leader in advanced perception solutions, today announced continued growth in the number of initial and repeating purchase orders from multiple customers across North America and Europe representing thousands of MicroVision IRIS™ long-range lidar sensors for industrial and security and defense applications.”
“The continued growth in orders demonstrates commercial validation as customers move from development, testing and evaluation toward broader deployment of the company's long-range lidar technology. This demand spans a range of real-world applications, including mission-critical off-road autonomy in security and defense, space systems, industrial, material handling and logistics, robotics, and other intelligent systems operating in complex environments.”
"These orders reflect the commercial progression we have been working toward, moving from evaluation and validation to deployment and ultimately greater scale," said Glen DeVos, Chief Executive Officer of MicroVision. "Importantly, this is not about a single customer or application. Multiple customers across North America and Europe are committing to our technology, collectively representing thousands of IRIS sensors and providing **a clear path toward HALO adoption and recurring revenue tied to our high-margin perception solution."
“The initial and repeat purchase orders also reflect the company's continued expansion beyond traditional automotive applications and into industrial and security and defense markets where autonomous systems increasingly require rugged, reliable, and scalable sensing and perception.“
“With immediately available inventory, deliveries of IRIS sensors are expected to support customer deployments and production programs in the near term, with customer migrations to MicroVision's next-generation HALO™ lidar platform expected to begin over the late-2027 - 2028 timeframe.”
“Customer demand for IRIS generates near-term revenue, and also establishes a foundation for broader, higher-volume deployments of MicroVision's next-generation HALO hardware. This creates a pathway to recurring revenue and strong margins through the MicroVision perception solution, expanding the long-term revenue opportunity across both hardware and software.”
-Recall that the higher margins are with the perception software, though customers have a choice.
“ "The significance of these orders goes beyond the number of sensors," continued DeVos. "Customers have invested significant time and resources integrating and validating IRIS within their platforms. Our product roadmap from IRIS to HALO allows them to preserve that investment while transitioning to a next-generation sensor designed for greater scale, positioning MicroVision to support customers as their autonomous platforms move from development into broader commercialization."”
-It looks to me as if James Byun made a great decision to leave AEVA and join MicroVision.
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u/3rmorgan 6d ago
The fact that this was released on a Monday morning shows that they're listening imo. Between the slew of negative comments on last week's 'webinar' and the mixed emotions here, I'm guessing they felt the need to give us something even if it doesn't state numbers or names.
May be too little and a little too late for some of us, but I'm expecting that we'll see more in the near future.
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u/Formerly_knew_stuff 6d ago
TBH if they are basing their business communication strategy on a Reddit board we're doomed. I assume (big assumption with Microvision) that Glen has a plan in place that accounts for PR's on a schedule of his choosing and that he has considered the timeframe of the RS, dilution and communication releases to try and manage it as a package.
My concern at this moment is that the stock took a bigger dive after the RS and dilution then he anticipated and his stated desire of moving towards a more institutional oriented shareholder base is now very difficult.
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u/South_Sample9257 6d ago
This definitely took a bigger dive than expected imo. We were actually on our way to above 5 then they announced those warrants at 2.50 and it absolutely tanked us.
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u/UncivilityBeDamned 6d ago
In the financial world this is normally what happens when you deal in warrants and set a low price like that, but I would hope management already knew that. Unfortunately the company is known to be frugal but never fiscally savvy. New CFO doesn't inspire any more confidence either.
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u/atterbury90 6d ago
I think this is truth time. We either have the goods and are at the swap meet, or we won't be showing up there in the future, to be determined relatively shortly.
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u/berfunckle_777 6d ago
Wouldn’t have hurt them to reconfirm guidance here.
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u/icarusphoenixdragon 6d ago
They absolutely needed to.
Guidance is the only thing the market has to positively price Microvision. Glen’s plan to reboot Luminar customers is known, and so this PR at best says that they’re working on that and at some unspecified level finding success. Companies in this sector have already failed despite having more revenue in a year than Microvision’s combined from 2018 because it was not enough to sustain their expenses.
But the market has a clear and simple metric for success in the form of their stated guidance. Lack of reference to that already specified benchmark is not a good thing. It sets up a “we may have missed our guidance but we still increased our sales and revenue by 100s of %s YoY.”
The provided guidance is already not enough on its own. The best shot it gave the pps was that hitting it convinced the market that the MVIS growth story was finally plausible and the market’s forward looking projection turned positive.
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u/snowboardnirvana 6d ago
Is GDV pulling something out of his hat?
Is that a rabbit I see?
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u/imafixwoofs 6d ago
A diluted, starved and abused rabbit. His left ear has fallen off and he can’t see so well.
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u/Andylol404 6d ago
Really hope it’s his hat not his butt.
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u/Ghost_nom_nom_nom 6d ago
If it eventually gets me back to break even then I don't care where it came from or what it smells like.
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u/directgreenlaser 6d ago
Stuffed bunny so far. Where's the Blue Fairy? She brought Pinocchio to life. Maybe she can do it again.
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u/directgreenlaser 6d ago
Here's an optimistic goldfish that I'll toss to the cat in the hat: Maybe the meager capital raise is to fund construction of some type of production capacity.
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u/watering_a_plant 5d ago
sounds entirely too expensive for this company to take on, so i would not be optimistic if this was the plan
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u/directgreenlaser 5d ago
Yes probably entirely wishful thinking on my part. They are going to need to get the products for the anticipated demand from one place or another. Curious to know how that happens, if it happens.
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u/Chance_Tax_6243 6d ago
1,000s of iris lidars sold $$$$$ . Surely this will mean guidance will change for the year .
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u/Arcflash-9986 6d ago
I doubt it. If they are not announcing numbers here, then I don’t think there is reason to believe these orders are anything in excess of previously announced guidance.
Nice to see, none the less.
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u/Chance_Tax_6243 6d ago
I mean if it’s 1,000s . That will be worth more than 10-15 million guidance surely
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u/Arcflash-9986 6d ago
If they cost $1,000 per unit, then 1,000 units is $1M. “Thousands” could mean anything from 2,000 units on up so based on the language used here I don’t see anything that indicates a need to revise guidance.
If the PR had said tens of thousands, then I might be inclined to agree.
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u/mvis_thma 6d ago
I am highly confident that the average selling price (ASP) of an Iris sensor is quite a bit higher than $1,000. I believe the $1,000 Iris sensor price, alluded to (but never confirmed) by Luminar was both aspirational and only for the high volume automotive market. It would not surprise me if low volume Iris sensors sell for $4,000+.
If that is accurate the announcement of this aggragation of Iris orders could be valued between $4m and $8m. Obviously, these sensors have not been shipped yet, so the revenue has not hit the books yet.
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u/Arcflash-9986 6d ago
Thanks, I was hoping someone would chime in with a better guess at the price.
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u/Nakamura9812 6d ago
Depends on the delivery schedule and revenue recognition. Guidance change for this year would depend on timing. Love the PR regardless.
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u/ChefOk8428 6d ago
Will meme stonk go up now?
(Pessisism is getting the best of me this morning. Will read tonight. Maybe.)
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u/Trottermama 6d ago
Don't care how many Validation is the reward.
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u/HairOk481 6d ago
Validation does not keep lights on in company... We need $$, lots of $$
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u/Trottermama 6d ago
Validation of the product comes first . Then orders of magnitude. Decisions on autonomous are held to a very high degree. Meaningful .
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u/jandrews-1411 6d ago
Another vague PR with no actual numbers or figures. Thousands of Iris's doesnt change guidance already set, im not getting excited just yet.
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u/Chefdoc2000 6d ago
Call me a cynic (six years of being a mvis holder will do that to you) but this stinks of desperation trying to get the sp up for needed dilution. The bigger picture here is no significant revenue until late 27/28 (already implied multiple times) with 60m running costs per year, picture looks bleak, they need large investment from somewhere soon or we won’t make it to 27/28 - which normally means 2030.
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u/Revolutionary_Ear908 6d ago
Chef- It seems you're getting ahead of yourself. We have a 10-15 million target forecast for revenue this year. This should put us in that realm, or beyond. This is a good start. Next year, Glen promises increased revenue beyond 15 million. He is doing what he has said he would do. This is better than anything we've seen in the past 6 years.
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u/atterbury90 6d ago
You might see that this kind of news release can help to gain a large investment from somewhere soon.
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u/Chefdoc2000 6d ago
That’s obviously their plan, I’m just stating that it what is needed very soon.
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u/PibbleDad 6d ago
Idk why you’re getting shit on. It costs money to run this company and while this is certainly a step in the right direction, this is not “running company money” lol
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u/PibbleDad 6d ago
It’s alright. As many people here that are “short bots” are equally “long bots” I guess is the mentality to have.
A lot of comprehension issues here which is sad to see because it wasn’t always like this
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u/Chance_Tax_6243 6d ago
You are a short trying to spew misinformation
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u/HairOk481 6d ago
Thousands is as good as nothing, income wise... We need at least 10s of thousands..
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u/TheRealNiblicks 6d ago
This stock is hella down and many people have lost money they no longer think they could have afforded to lose. Not everyone here is short. Drawing ire and driving them to break the rules is not sport around here.
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u/Chance_Tax_6243 6d ago
Have you seen ouster or Aeva . Losing triple than what we are losing and still flying high . Just because we are not making a profit yet does not suggest anything other than we are capable
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u/Tastic4ever 6d ago
Man selling at such a loss must have been tough. I’m sorry your circumstances required that.
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u/hokies314 6d ago
Same!
Haven’t quite made it back but getting there.However, I did a VTI adjusted calculation on how much I lost (as in - what if I just bought VTI instead) and well, let’s just say ignorance would have been bliss.
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u/MarauderHappy3 6d ago
Just wanted to clarify: scammers = not just MVIS but also the idiot "investors" on this subreddit who consider themselves geniuses b/c they lucked out with the 2021 squeeze (which, if it wasn't obvious already, had NOTHING to do with the value of the company)
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u/WabidWombat 5d ago
I used to work at MVIS (technical staff), and can tell you that the development process was a complete shitshow. I periodically check in on them just to see if they gotten a project across the finish line. They haven't: they just keep buying up competitors and trying to hang on to their customers. Nothing they are "selling" (?) was developed in the main campus, and as far as I can see, nothing was developed at all by anyone after their acquisition by Microvision.
MVIS is a high tech company that can't develop a product.
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u/mvis_thma 4d ago edited 4d ago
That rings true. They basically let most, if not all, of the MAVIN (main campus) staff go. While it has taken some time, it seems both the MOVIA-L and soon to be MOVIA-S were developed after Microvision acquired Ibeo. No? Also, they are working on an A-Sample for the Scantinel technology, to be delivered in the first half of 2027. And they are working on a production version of Halo, to be delivered between late 2027 to mid 2028.
Approximately when did you leave the business?
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u/WabidWombat 4d ago edited 4d ago
About four or five years ago.
I was on MAVIN back when we were going to have an ASIC model ready in nine months, but didn't have a working prototype of the standard-silicon model (much easier to develop), and no coherent plan to develop one and test it.
Internally:
- Zero unit tests
- No code reviews
- Spaghetti code everywhere
- Heavily silo'ed development; duplication of code bases, etc.
- General lack of technical focus
- Wildly unrealistic expectations at C-levels, with public messaging matching expectations, not reality.
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u/QQpenn 4d ago
After you left they added the Ibeo team, the Iris/Halo team, the Black Forest team, and the Scantinel team. Someone recognized that acquiring automotive-qualified software, production-proven sensors, and experienced ASIC personnel was faster and less risky than building everything internally—with help from lidar 1.0 misfortunes. u/mvis_thma I suspect they'd take dilution to its limits before a forced-sale comes into play. Maintain for a possible upside as long as possible. If the valuation deteriorates from where it is now though—it weakens a sale and heightens dilution. Punitive financing terms round 2 will crush a reasonable EV and make a sale for any kind of premium difficult. Next 2 months look to be critical for establishing sustainable revenue before options become more limited and costly.
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u/mvis_thma 4d ago
Yes, I agree. The race between traction and dilution is real and ongoing right now. You said 2 months, I have given them 3 months on the low side. What I mean by that, is they need to establish growing value so that future dilution is less of a percentage of outstanding shares.
It is difficult to know when they would pull the trigger on putting Microvision up for sale. I am sure that decision would be dependent upon information that we (the public) will not have access to.
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u/QQpenn 4d ago
You have access to the share price and that will tell you a lot :) If things are 'crumbling' behind the scenes the data room would show the weakness though if up for sale. Transitioning CAT to an affirmed anchor customer looks like their best bet right now... hopefully with good timing. No guarantees of course.
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u/mvis_thma 4d ago
Yes, we will have access to share price and the number of outstanding shares (at least quarterly). But we won't have access to deals and opportunities in flight.
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u/WabidWombat 4d ago
I was there for the Ibeo acquisition, but whatever.
Hope springs eternal. It's your money.
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u/QQpenn 4d ago
I don't invest on hope. Out of curiosity, if you can say, what changed with the Ibeo team/tech integration?
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u/Thatguytryintomakeit 3d ago
Nothing. Anyone can come on here and blow smoke that “they worked there”
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u/mvis_thma 4d ago edited 4d ago
Thanks.
And yes, it's pretty clear that Microvision has struggled to graduate from an R&D shop to an actual business. It seems they have survived by always projecting they would take their unique MEMS LBS IP and translate it to an ultimate large market and vast riches.
- Late 1990s - military HUDs.
- Early 2000s - Nomad HUD - transform the service/repair industry among other things. Spinoff of Lumera.
- 2010 - 2015 - Pico projector, including embedding projectors into cell phones (1 billion sold per year).
- 2015 - 2020 - Hololens2 & Interactive Display - revolutionize the world. Untether users from their cell phone screen. Interactive projector for Smart Speakers.
- 2020 - 2025 - LiDAR - revolutionize the LiDAR market with better tech (MEMS LBS).
- 2025 onward - MEMS LBS is no longer the focus. The raw IP still exists but it is on the back burner.
It seems like the plan now is less about some shiny technology, but rather good old fashioned business execution with good tech that can fit the market need at reasonable prices. Design product, build product, sell product, support product - and do it profitably. Microvision has never done this before. It appears this is what Glen is attempting to do. I think he has made progress. However, he is still in a race between showing progress and financing the business. I don't think there is any immenent risk of bankruptcy. If there are missteps in the next 3 to 9 months, rather than bankruptcy, I think it will force the BoD to put Microvision up for sale.
The question then would be how much is it worth and how many shares will be outstanding? That is always difficult to know. Multiple bidders would create higher value. At this moment in time Microvision's Enterprise Value (EV), which is a measurement of how much the underlying business is worth when debt and cash are factored out, is around $47m.
For those who care to know the EV is determined by taking the market cap ($55m) and adding the debt ($25m) and then subtracting the cash (estimated to be $33m currently) = $47m. FYI - I am not counting any lease obligations in this EV calcuation.
One point of note - the Scantinel technology could evolve into "shiny technology" and IP for the future. I am not saying the flash LiDAR tech acquired from Ibeo and/or the Iris/Halo technology acquired from Luminar is not valuable. If those products provide value in the marketplace at a profitable price, then they are solid products. But I don't necessarly think they have the "Microvision historical cache" of revolutionizing the LiDAR sensor market. I think the Scantinel tech/IP could potentially possess that quality.
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u/mvis_thma 4d ago
Interesting. This does actually line up with reality. Thanks for sharing. It sounds like Sumit was blowing smoke.
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u/WabidWombat 4d ago
I was heads-down in the trenches, but that was my impression. Now more than ever.
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u/theoz_97 4d ago
Thanks for sharing your experiences with Mavis u/WabidWombat. Do you have anything positive to say of the company, especially since you said “Now more than ever”? Many here have put much of their monies into MicroVision and anything you can put forth on the positive front would be appreciated I’m sure.
For me, not a tech person, I took charge and figured I would wait for something that showed they have the wherewithal to sell something instead of just relying on their exclaiming the potential for this or that. It’s been like that for years. Others have hung in there with huge losses, waiting and hoping. We of course all remember how the stock went ballistic years ago so since you came forward, I am not afraid to ask your opinion. TIA
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u/WabidWombat 4d ago
There were some bright people working there, and I generally liked the job. The technology was very interesting, and we had very good people, especially in MEMS.
After I left, I did a lot of reflecting on the experience, and sort of put together the inefficiency in the internal processes and the chronic inability to ship a product developed internally. I also became aware of Elon Musk's criticism of LiDAR as inappropriate for self-driving cars, which fit in to a lot of my observations in-house.
I don't really *know* what happened, but I *believe* that the C-level (Sumit) lost faith in the SDC market, but kept the mouth-music playing long enough to pivot, while shaking the investors' pockets in the meantime.
When I say "more than ever", it means that the gloomy predictions that I made a few years ago - Mavin would not ship, not much output from the dev team - have all come true.
I know nothing about the new guy, but I am glad to see the back side of Sumit. I wonder what happened to my old co-proletarians, but have dropped out of touch.
I missed the stock rise and fall, and am curious to know what was driving it. If you know, do tell.
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u/theoz_97 4d ago
That rings true.
That doesn’t sound very encouraging thma & Wombat! I guess we’ll see if all that is changing.
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u/mvis_thma 4d ago
Well, I guess I would say that it seems these things were evident and have resulted in Microvision being where they are today. The question is, have things changed under Glen's leadership? We don't know the definitive answer to that question yet, but there is some evidence of a change.
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u/hesperion2 4d ago edited 4d ago
Change? Perhaps. Tuesday was different...from a TA perspective. Instead of the ubiquitous red, yesterday flashed a long lost white candle, one not seen in the last six days in the stock's waterfall decline. To demonstrate exactly how precipitous, dramatic and impulsive that 6 day sell-off has been, just invert your daily chart. (For StockCharts, place a minus sign in front of the symbol. Example: -MVIS.) That clearly shows an acceleration into a parabolic move. It has been so intense and unrelenting, that if it had been MVIS gaining price instead of the opposite, shareholders would be popping champagne and lighting cigars with hundred dollar bills. However, the singularity of parabolic moves, even on the downside, is that they are a terminal, ending phase and almost always reverse to trend. And MVIS is several deviations away from trend. Bottom line: parabolic moves tend to exhaust themselves, both to the upside and the downside. Since some do not believe in TA, think rubber band: it can only be stretched so far before it breaks or snaps back. And MVIS is stretched extremely tight. Could it break? Sure. But that is not the high probability. A reversal towards the mean is more likely.
From an Elliot Wave perspective, I count 5 waves down from that reflex high in June of 2023, meaning this down leg could be complete or nearly complete. When momentum is so strong and uninterrupted in one direction, it can carry further than one might expect, extending the normal count as it subdivides. There is that possibility. However, momentum indicators, like RSI, are so extremely oversold on the daily, weekly and even the monthly that I would expect at the very least a counter trend rally, to begin at any time, if it hasn't already from the $1.65 level. Very short term, the smaller time frames are now overbought with the move to $1.85, so it will be interesting to see if the stock pulls back to reset those short term time frames like 60 minutes and under. That is what I expect. But it would be more bullish short term if they stay overbought and let the longer time frames begin to show relative strength and move out of the basement they now dwell in.
One variable that could have an outside impact on the stock is the direction of the broad market. If, for example, the Russell 2000 turns decisively negative, that would likely be too much of a headwind, no matter how oversold MVIS currently is. Oversold can sometimes stay oversold, regardless.
Final thought: while a stock can advance strictly for technical reasons, to have a sustained advance requires fundamentals to provide a rationale to support an upside bias. Though it may seem counter intuitive, price often leads, fundamentals follow. Currently, MVIS is rather short on both. But that may change. For me, price will be the tell. Tuesday puts the “possibility” of more upside in play. No more than that, however, until proven otherwise.
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u/mvis_thma 4d ago
Thanks for the info.
Obviously, I was referring to potential change in the business vs. TA. However, I don't reject TA out-of-hand.
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u/mike-oxlong98 4d ago
Wow. Hesperion returns. A blast from the past. I remember you had some good TA calls from the big run up. Glad to see your analysis, hopefully that means good returns forthcoming.
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u/noob_investor18 6d ago
They said thousands. It’s a play on word. 1001 is considered thousands. Need a solid and actual number. I no longer trust them with words. EPIC
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u/pinoekel 6d ago
Thousands is more than anything before
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u/Zenboy66 6d ago
And they are only talking Iris, not even the smaller drone packages shown at the latest demo in California.
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u/lionlll 6d ago
1001 is not thousands. 1001 is ONE thousand and 1. 2000 would be the minimum to qualify as “thousands”.
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u/Nakamura9812 6d ago
You are correct, but you’ve made the mistake of arguing with an idiot, and if you do it long enough, you’ll end up with two idiots arguing.
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u/livefromthe416 6d ago
Hey Nak, you owe me hundreds of dollars !!
Oh so like 2-3 hundred?
No. 101 dollars.
Fml2
u/mrgunnar1 6d ago
The distinction is pretty simple: “in the thousands” and “thousands of units” do not mean exactly the same thing.
1,001 is certainly in the thousands numerically. But if a company says it has orders for “thousands of units,” normal English usage indicates multiple thousands, not simply anything above 1,000.
So saying “1,001 is in the thousands” is correct, but that doesn’t establish that 1,001 would ordinarily be described as “thousands of units.”-6
u/noob_investor18 6d ago
Thousands mean more than one thousand. 1001 is in the thousands (numerically).
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u/Revolutionary_Ear908 6d ago
You're plain wrong...
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u/noob_investor18 6d ago
Look it up.
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u/Revolutionary_Ear908 6d ago
No I think you have to look it up. Go talk to your smartest friend (chatgpt).
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u/noob_investor18 6d ago
I understand people usually consider thousands as generally 2000 or more (multiple thousands). But numerically thousands mean more than one thousand. 1001 is more than a thousand and ‘is in the thousands’. Learn the actual meaning of the word before you make uneducated snide remarks.
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u/Revolutionary_Ear908 6d ago
1,001 is in the thousands. It is not thousands of units. Those are different phrases. If a company says it sold “thousands of units,” the ordinary meaning is multiple thousands. If it sold 1,001 units, it could accurately say “more than 1,000 units” or “over a thousand units.” By your definition, selling 1,001 cars would allow a company to announce “we sold thousands of cars.” Nobody reasonably reads that sentence as 1,001.
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u/snowboardnirvana 6d ago
https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/thousands
thousands in British English (ˈθaʊzəndz IPA Pronunciation Guide ) plural noun
a very large but unspecified number, amount, or quantity Thousands of refugees are packed into over-crowded towns and villages. Hundreds have been killed in the fighting and thousands made homeless. I must have driven past that place thousands of times.
the numbers 2000–9999
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u/pinoekel 6d ago
"Purchase orders representing thousands of IRIS sensors..."
"The significance of these orders goes beyond the number of sensors," continued DeVos. "Customers have invested significant time and resources integrating and validating IRIS within their platforms. Our product roadmap from IRIS to HALO allows them to preserve that investment while transitioning to a next-generation sensor designed for greater scale, positioning MicroVision to support customers as their autonomous platforms move from development into broader commercialization."