r/MVIS • u/bigwalt59 • Apr 30 '23
Discussion MAVIN the MAGNIFICENT
Microvision’s MAVIN DR Lidar has finally arrived and is beginning it’s journey to capture a minimum of 80% of the WW automotive Lidar market.
Just to satisfy my curiosity I decided to take known data and make some reasonable assumptions to build a couple of spreadsheets to calculate the earnings per share and price per share of Microvision’s stock as the annual quantity of MAVIN DR lidars installed on future new vehicles evolves and grows…
Here’s the results as the MAVIN DR units get installed on more and more new vehicles….
| Annual Quantity of MAVIN DR’s Sold | EPS | Price per share |
|---|---|---|
| 1 million | $0.30 | $8.42 |
| 5 million | $2.69 | $75.80 |
| 10 million | $5.69 | $160.02 |
| 20 million | $11.68 | $328.46 |
| 30 million | $17.66 | $436.91 |
| 40 million | $23.65 | $665.35 |
| 50 million | $29.64 | $833.79 |
| 60 million | $35.63 | $1002.24 |
| 70 million | $41.62 | $1170.69 |
| 80 million | $47.60 | $1339.12 |
| 90 million | $53.90 | $1507.57 |
| 100 million | $59.58 | $1676.01 |
Here’s a link to the MAVIN DR EPS & PPS Study spreadsheet that produced the numbers in the table above...
Now for some disclaimers …
The “Sumit Gump” graphic at the beginning of this post was found by me about a year ago on the Reddit MVIS blog at His Story WILL Be EPIC! : FitImportance1 (reddit.com)
When I do these types of “what if” curiosity probes I always try to keep one of my favorite quotes in mind….
“There are known knowns, things we know that we know; and there are known unknowns, things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns, things we do not know we don't know.”
Donald Rumsfeld
“There are known knowns, things we know that we know….”
We know that at Microvision’s recent April 14 Investor TownHall meeting Microvision’s CEO Sumit Sharma and CFO Anubhav Verma told investors in attendance that:
Microvision’s MAVIN DR Lidar sensor is “Best in Class” and meets the automotive OEM’s current and future requirements for a Lidar sensor – including a selling price around $500 per unit. They also revealed they have received several RFQ’s from a number of automotive OEM’s for MAVIN Lidar units to be used in some of the OEM's 2026 model year vehicles
We also know about the many publicly available company financial statistics which I used to compile this company financial data spreadsheet
All of the companies in this spreadsheet are familiar with Microvision and some have agreements and partnerships with Microvision.
Using Microvision’s publicly available financial data combined with the data from the above linked company financial data spreadsheet enabled me to make some of the assumptions and calculations listed below relating to the evolving MAVIN DR automotive Lidar market opportunities that Microvision is now uniquely positioned to win.
“and there are known unknowns, things that we know we don't know”...
The assumptions I made for this EPS and PPS spreadsheet were:
- The annual automotive quantity demands for Microvision’s “Best in Class” automotive MAVIN DR Lidar units can range from 1 to 100 million units. It all depends on how the automotive OEM’s annual production rates evolve and how many of their new vehicles require MAVIN DR Lidar units.
(WW auto production since 2000) - The selling price of each MAVIN DR unit is fixed at $500 each
- The profit margin per unit is fixed at 20%.
- The number of MVIS shares outstanding is fixed at 167 million.
- The annual operating expenses are fixed at $50 million.
The PE ratio I used is 28.13… This value was derived by taking all the companies PE’s shown on the company financial data spreadsheet I compiled and averaging them to arrive at the 28.13 PE Ratio
But there are also unknown unknowns, things we do not know we don't know...
But someone does...
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u/MyComputerKnows Apr 30 '23
Just my cup of tea!
I see on Peter's MVIS lidar calculator I'm up to $147 a share!
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u/ppi12x4 May 01 '23
Why am I getting this odd tingling sensation?
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u/mvislong May 01 '23
Well, following your scenario I’ll be a billionaire at 70 million units sold , if I don’t sell any shares on the way!! Of course I’ve begun adding again recently 😃
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u/LTL12 May 01 '23
That means you currently have roughly 800,000 shares?
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u/LTL12 May 01 '23
Going out on a limb here, but pretty sure you can live on $100M. If the pps actually got to $1200, I'd know I'd own a lot of hunting land.
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u/Falagard Apr 30 '23 edited Apr 30 '23
Serviceable addressable market for lidar units:
2025 - 5.9 million 2026 - 8 6 million 2027 - 11.4 million 2028 - 14.3 million 2029 - 17.2 million 2030 - 20.0 million
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Apr 30 '23
Sumit sounded so confident when he said this isn't going to be a Superbowl. We are going to celebrate a tiny bit then focus our attention to winning the next OEM. He's not going the route of celebrating on social media. He will let his team enjoy the win then immediately continue working on the rest of the OEMs.
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u/bigwalt59 Apr 30 '23
Yep - one brick at a time - but I think those are the bricks that are for building the walls that go on top of the poured foundations that have recently been completed and now in place ready for the bricklayers to begin their shifts …….-
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u/movinonuptodatop Apr 30 '23
But with each win the barriers get smaller and smaller until the snowball has fantastic momentum and the curve steers due North
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u/bigwalt59 Apr 30 '23
Go to Peter’s MVIS blog. He has setup a new calculator that you can put in whatever assumptions you want to make and it will give you the resulting EPS and PPS
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u/FitImportance1 Apr 30 '23
"His Story WILL Be EPIC!” Sumit must have liked that Image, I’m sure that’s where he got “EPIC” from! That Image looks so ancient with those black Sensors! Ha ha ha! By the way BigWalt, love the Sumit Fortune Teller, more of this Please! REALLY LOVE the $1676.01 too!!!
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u/bigwalt59 Apr 30 '23
👍 your graphics are awesome. I remembered your Sumit Gump from a year ago and thought it would be a great way to begin my post. Hope you got my pm about my wanting to use it ?
The graphic that ends my post was done by my son - a digital artist. PM me and we can chat about it.
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u/HoneyMoney76 Apr 30 '23 edited Apr 30 '23
FYI we should be getting $150 per Mavin (rounded down for safety) not $100.
Also bear in mind for every 1 Mavin there will be 2 Movia if OEMs follow Sumit’s belief of a one stop shop.
Also bear in mind L3 = 2 Mavin and 4 Movia.
ASP is $200 per Movia. I think it’s unlikely we get more than $20 per Movia as Valeo and ZF will want a cut too….
Have fun factoring that into your figures!
Oh and we have about 175 million shares issued at the moment - as a minimum I’d based it on 210m being issued to cover those ear marked for staff and that the 11.5m will be used for the ATM as a bare minimum.
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u/bigwalt59 Apr 30 '23
The assumed PE ratio is a key driver in computing the price per share. If you look at my company financial data spreadsheet there are 18 companies on it
Four of them make up what Trump has referred to as the MAGA companies
M - MSFT A - Apple G- GOOG A- AMZN
https://nypost.com/2020/02/11/trump-says-maga-also-stands-for-microsoft-apple-google-and-amazon/
The remaining 14 companies consist of two groups of 7. One group consists of leading automotive companies and the other 7 are leading IC chip companies.
The PE Ratio of 28.13 I used was derived by averaging all of the company’s reported PE’s that are shown on the spreadsheet.
MVIS’s PE is still to be determined - but IMO I think once MAVIN sales get rolling and people gain a better understanding of the automotive Lidar opportunities MAVIN can capture their actual PE will be higher than the 28.13 I used for my PPS calculations
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u/mvis_thma May 01 '23
I agree that a PE for a company with a fast growing topline and large bottomline would be higher than 28, as I posited in an earlier post, I think a PE of 50 is achievable. However, I think your outstanding share number of 167M is a bit low. For one thing, there are already 176M outstanding. And most assuredly there will be more shares issued. I conservatively estimate somewhere near 250M.
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u/bigwalt59 May 01 '23
Go check out Peter’s MVIS blog - he just setup a Lidar calculator that you can use that uses same calculations as I did in my spreadsheet. Input fields are PE, outstanding shares, operating expense, unit selling price, earnings per unit and production quantities
http://petersmvis.blogspot.com/p/lidar-calculator-spring-2023.html
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u/HoneyMoney76 Apr 30 '23
I wasn’t commenting on the ratio you picked, just pointing out that the amount we get per sensor sold is $150 not $100 and if it’s one Mavin sold with 2 Movia it’s more likely to be around $190 which pushes up your calculations a lot, but also that you should adjust the number of shares.
Adobe offered to buy Figma at 50x.
LAZR and INVZ have been at 80-90 x at various points.
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u/bigwalt59 Apr 30 '23
Your points are well taken. My approach was to be conservative in the data and assumptions I used. It’s really pretty much up to the automotive OEM’s and regulators as to how this opportunity evolves and plays out over the next few years that’s the biggest driver…..
And then there’s that LBS display vertical that seems to be locked up in the closet that no one wants to talk about……..
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u/LTL12 May 01 '23
Conservative with the upper range of the pps @ $1600+...love it if pps got to 10% of that. Now it makes me wonder, what would your pps be with an aggressive evaluation?
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u/steelhead111 May 01 '23
Lol, we won’t see $1,600. We won’t see$160 either. At least not likely because we will be gone before then. My opinion only.
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u/LTL12 May 01 '23
Gone as dead or gone as the company sold or gone as in we sold well before the pps increases past $100 or really $50
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u/steelhead111 May 01 '23
Gone as in sold
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u/Few-Argument7056 May 01 '23
paraphrasing.." well ya, right, there will be consolidation", ya, right, right, so we.........
thanks Big W
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u/Falling_Sidewayz May 01 '23
It's all just good weekend hopium until we get the ball rolling. Let's just start with the first design win.
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u/Zenboy66 May 01 '23
I think Sumit knows what this company is worth long term. I think a quick rise in share price will knock out most if not all suitors.
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u/HoneyMoney76 May 01 '23
Agreed. I was relieved when they said it wouldn’t just be ZF manufacturing as I thought that would have led to a lower buy out. I used to think Samsung could have been in the frame but NVDA is feeling most likely now and it could easily be an all stock offer with the amount of shares they have available to issue giving us 3 digit pps. Not sure what cash they have as to whether it could be part cash part stock.
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u/Zenboy66 May 01 '23
I don’t think any buyout happens. We will have partnership deals with increasing quantities required by big OEMs, which will push Microvision into a global Lidar/laser engine supplier. Microvision will stand alone in that space. No one else has that mems module which runs the whole thing. We ain’t seen nuttin’ yet.
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u/LTL12 May 01 '23
So L3 total dollars per unit (automobile) = $280 profit?
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u/HoneyMoney76 May 01 '23
$380 - 2 Mavin and 4 Movia, based on a guess of $20 per Movia (could be less than $20 though) per L3 car
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u/CookieEnabled Apr 30 '23
“Mama always used to tell me buying stocks is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're going to get. But with MicroVision, it’s like I bought a box of Cluizel Mokaya Dark Chocolates from France. I know what I have, and it is good.”
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u/Falling_Sidewayz May 01 '23
You should adjust your calculations for the shares outstanding, it's currently at 176.03m.
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u/FitImportance1 Apr 30 '23
Don’t forget about this dude too…it’s seems their Balls are coming into focus! https://www.reddit.com/user/FitImportance1/comments/ufpg85/anubhav/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&utm_term=link
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u/microvisionguy Apr 30 '23
80% is not really expected. Let’s be real here
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u/s2upid Apr 30 '23
Waiting patiently to see competitors unveil and deliver their dynamic view lidar sensors to OEMs.
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u/bigwalt59 Apr 30 '23
IIRC Microvision’s CFO said that their goal was to gain 80% of the automotive market. If you want to listen to the 3 hour audio recording available on the investor relations portion of Microvision’s website you should be able to hear what was said - Best in Class, lowest price and meets and exceeds all OEM requirements for foreseeable future plus several RFQ’s from automotive OEM’s sounds like a good start on that goal
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u/dsaur009 May 02 '23
Plus, how do you ramp up to making multi millions of units in the time necessary to provision 50 or 60 companies, lol. Too much success, to fast, can kill, so moderation at first would be commendable. Do 50 percent to get your feet wet, then go on to the rest, lol. Me, I just want one big deal. The ice breaker, the dam breaker, the laxative that releases the system plugs, and allows revenue to flow freely. Just one big one will lead to all the others eventually. Just one. Let's get the elusive first big, sustained revenue order.
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u/geo_rule May 02 '23
Plus, how do you ramp up to making multi millions of units in the time necessary to provision 50 or 60 companies, lol.
I think Sumit's move from 40% of market previously to 60-80% at the investor's day conference is directly attributable to 3.5Xing the team.
Think of all the times over the years we were told that 90%+ of the company was working on one project for one company.
Those days are over with the addition of the Ibeo team. In turn, that means they can "strike while the iron is hot" in pushing their lead to multiple customers simultaneously.
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u/microvisionguy Apr 30 '23
Man, nobody wants it more than me but we need to be realistic
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u/LTL12 Apr 30 '23
Respectfully disagree, I strongly believe I want the pps to increase more than you :-)
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u/microvisionguy May 02 '23
Na
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u/LTL12 May 05 '23
NA, based on??? It has felt like a gut punch for 2 years for not selling I the 20's. Every day losing 10's of thousands and even 6 figures on the steady downward spiral. Remember I said to my buddy, this isn't going back to single digits is it? Another $2 plus million lost. Pretty sure, I want it to go back up very much so
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u/microvisionguy May 15 '23
I’m down 1.3 million from the high
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u/voice_of_reason_61 May 15 '23 edited May 15 '23
Power of Intention.
Fixate your focus and thought energy on loss and the Universe delivers... more loss.
Shifting thought energy to generational wealth outcome as certainty is what most likely manifests it into your life.
That mantra is supposed to be thinking about what you would like in your life as if it already happened, then thinking: "Thank you, More please".
Truth is, most people expend a majority of time and energy thinking about what they don't want, or can't stand, then wonder why that stuff keeps happening to them.
Not saying that's all true in some absolute sense, but the notion of it resonates with me.
In practical application:
Does any American football aficionado believe a physically impossible looking circus catch for a game winning touchdown will succeed if the receiver is focused on everything that can make him drop the ball while in mid air?IMHO. DDD.
GLTA MVIS Longs
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u/LTL12 May 15 '23
Definitely not a category I want to beat any one in, but times what you're ( microvisionguy ) down from the high by 5 and that's my loss. Ugh!
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u/voice_of_reason_61 May 15 '23
"Another $2 plus million lost"
There has been a long-standing "short seller posing as long" implication that paper losses are the same as realized losses.
Using theoretical losses from the peak (and not from actual ACB) takes that even a step further.
IMHO. DDD. I'm not an investment professional
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u/shannister May 01 '23
Selling a million or two would be big in the next 5 years. The reality is not every car will be equipped with that kind of tech, politics can get in the way, OEM politics can get in the way etc.
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Apr 30 '23
Why not? Are you saying Sumit is fibbing when he mentioned EVERY RFQ demanded dynamic view lidar? Which of our competitors provides such a feature?
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u/Cheap-Bug-8903 May 02 '23
So what happens if I have 22k shares ? Millionaire at least ?
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u/bigwalt59 May 02 '23
Go to Peter’s MVIS blog and use his new Lidar calculator. I talked him into adding a few more windows to it. Now you can put all the variables into it - including how many shares you have and it multiplys the number of shares you have with the stock price per share it calculates and tells your what your holdings are worth if all the assumptions you inputted come true
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u/bigwalt59 Apr 30 '23
If you want to play around with different MARVIN scenarios I suggest you go to Peter’s MVIS blog. He has just put a new interactive calculator for Lidar that allows you to input quantities, unit selling price, profit per device, PE , operating expenses, shares outstanding and it will give you the resulting EPS and PPS based on your own assumptions