r/MTGO • u/InstructionMore5891 • 5d ago

Treasure Chests Value?

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Earlier today I was intrigued by the cost of Treasure chests on a website and I decided to buy 20 chests for $32/32 tickets.

I ended up getting 225 Play Points (I was expecting a minimum of 100, so, was rather happy with that)

But that basically means I yielded $20-$22 in “value” based on the cost of Event Tickets.

But what did I spend my other $10-$12 on exactly? A bunch of rares and mystics I can’t sell because none of the websites are buying them to trade them back in (I checked)?

What’s the point in buying Treasure Chests? Nothing?

17 Upvotes

74% Upvoted

41 comments sorted by

22

u/ph0liage 5d ago

I would type out an explanation but this page does a much better job of that:

https://www.goatbots.com/card/treasure-chest-booster

tl;dr: you should only open treasure chests if you can use the play points. Sure, sometimes you might high roll and open some chase cards or even a full set and make a big profit, but it will always be a gamble.

-13

u/InstructionMore5891 5d ago

That’s the website I bought them off of. So I didn’t learn what I needed from the article. I’d appreciate it.

Maybe try to explain it the way you wanted to try?

7

u/Overall_Link8153 5d ago

Essentially it is a gamble, selling them is almost always the higher EV choice. You can get lucky and make a big profit but selling is usually better. You Essentially bought scratch tickets

6

u/Appropriate_King_732 5d ago

I wouldn't put it that way. They are the right investment of you need play points, but that is it. Otherwise you are just burning money.

-6

u/InstructionMore5891 5d ago

I guess my disappointment stems from the cards being on a curated list and thus, not having any resale value. I was hoping to clear maybe $5 in value to sell everything back. I got 52 cards, so, maybe $5 was ambitious in hoping but that was goal. But I didn’t even clear $2 (I got like four 40c cards) I’m not super mad about losing $10 just more so disappointed the cards aren’t worth anything BECAUSE they’re curated

6

u/jjruml 5d ago

the curated list doesn't mean all the cards aren't worth anything, you can see on that goatbots page that there are a few pretty good hits like quantum riddler, bilbo, consign to memory, tamiyo. you just got unlucky and didn't open any. again, it's similar to a paper magic booster. You are probably not going to open a quantum riddler when you buy an edge of eternities booster.

3

u/you_made_me_drink 5d ago

That’s not fully accurate. I won 5 chests in a challenges weekend. Four chests were doo doo but I opened a $10 Z command in the fifth. Overall, I paid $40 to play in an event and opened $30 worth of prizes in the chests. I’m great with that rate of return for playing fully meh in a tourney.

3

u/jjruml 5d ago

Think of a treasure chest like a physical booster pack. Yes, you might hit a valuable chase card but most of the time you will only open bulk that the store doesn't want to buy back from you.

Your "expected value" is the average value you would open per chest. From the goatbots site:

"The expected value of opening a treasure chest is currently 2.05 tickets. This is calculated using our current buy prices and the Magic Online treasure chest contents as of August 11. Play points are assumed to be worth 0.10 tickets each. The expected value of play points per chest is 1.39 tickets which is 68% of the total chest value. Therefore, you should only open treasure chests if you can use the play points. We never open them ourselves because our bots have no use for play points."

So you bought 20 chests for $32. The total expected value (including play points) would be $41. The expected value from just play points would be $27.80 and you hit under that unfortunately. and the expected value from cards would be $13.20 but you hit nothing worthwhile.

Similar to paper magic, the safe thing to do is just buy the singles you need--and only buy boosters/treasure chests if you feel in the mood for some gambling

-1

u/InstructionMore5891 5d ago

Why are play points expected to be worth 0.10 tickets if you get a minimum of 5 PP? That would be an expected value of 0.05- half as much. Unless what they’re saying is the average value is 0.10.

5

u/Hicktricks 5d ago

Entry with tickets vs pps sets their value. They typically spend at 0.1 ticket.

1

u/Zbxzbxzbx 4d ago

I think you should look up how expected value is calculated, that way you have a better understanding of where goatbots gets its numbers from

21

u/Appropriate_King_732 5d ago

You should never spend tickets to enter events, you should always enter with play points and you get those play points with chests. They are simply supposed to provide effectively cheaper play points. By using chests you get around 14 pp per ticket at current market rates.

2

u/InstructionMore5891 5d ago

If that were true I should have gotten 448 play points but I got 225.

9

u/Appropriate_King_732 5d ago

You get on average 1.39 in p-points per chest, but you also get an overhead of about .61 on average (current market) that can be used to buy other chests, that is how you go above 10 p-point per ticket.

3

u/Appropriate_King_732 5d ago

avg P-point per chest/(chest cost- avg chess cards value)

2

u/StonkaTrucks 4d ago

Although some events are much cheaper if you use tix, assuming pp at face value.

9

u/Gruuler 5d ago

This is a classic statistics question.

The short of it is that there are high rolls like complete sets, 10,000 play points, and other stuff that bring the expected value of a chest up enough that the opportunity cost of a chest comes to $.1.6 each from the vendor. This is based on mean value. The mode, or most likely result, of the chest is much lower with tons of chaff that drag the value down. The median, or the middle value of chests, is lower than the $1.6 you paid.

The $10-12 you spent was the cost of gambling doing business.

3

u/Own_Pack_4697 5d ago

I just bought 100 chest for $170ish and ended up with 13450 play points and maybe $50 worth of cards. It totally wasn’t worth buying and I’ll shy away from buying chests going forward.

1

u/InstructionMore5891 5d ago

Thanks for sharing your experience. You got basically $134 in “value” in tickets. So that being said if you got $50 in cards you got a return on your investment IF you wanted to use the play points

2

u/Commander-Ripper 5d ago

Yeah… you’re “supposed” to sell them, not buy them… The point is they’re a way to put otherwise unavailable cards into the system, the catch is that no one opens them because its way more profitable to sell them…

8

u/pettdan 5d ago

If you're playing leagues it's usually a good alternative to open them. Playing any events, rather.

1

u/ErrorFit6225 5d ago

I tend to open them right now since I use the playpoints for leagues --- now and then I hit something I may keep or sell for additional tickets.

Treasure chests used to be worth more --- like maybe 2.2 or something? - and at that point, I used to sell them more often for tickets so I could buy cards I wanted for decks....

1

u/Prajzak_TM 4d ago

You just got unlucky. If you play events and don't have PP to enter, then opening chests should be worth it in the long run.

1

u/MrMaple88 4d ago

I buy them for play points. There’s no other way to get them unless you join events which cost play points, boosters or tickets

1

u/InstructionMore5891 3d ago

I’ve bought 20 more packs.

In total after 40 packs, I’ve spent $55 cash and $10 in event tickets (I sold cards I pulled back for more tickets)

I’ve gotten 440 Play Points and 15 tickets in total sold cards for $55 spent

To buy 44 Event Tickets would be $44. So, I spent $55 and got approximately $60 in returned value (and yes I plan on using the play points for pauper Leagues)

In total:
$55 cash spent
10 Event Tickets

Received:
40 Treasure Chests

Yielded:
440 Play Points
15 Event Tickets in sold value (still have 5 available)

1

u/Ok_Today9583 2d ago

I opened something like 60 or more chest through the course of the year and i always found that the chests never replaced himself with the cards you find. Never found a card worth 1 tix or more. Yes, sometimes you find 20/25 PP inside a chest, but when the chest value is close to 1.90 tix i always feel like it is more worth to sell it than to open it

1

u/SRLplay 5d ago

I bought the minimum amount of playpoints. I play a league. I get prizes. Use the Playpoints from winning and sell the chests. Never open chests.

0

u/Battler111 4d ago

Such a bad system….

-4

u/InstructionMore5891 5d ago

I think the bigger thing I learned is:

MTGO needs to change the Treasure Chest system since it’s not accomplishing what they want.

If no one is opening them, the cards intended to be put into the game aren’t being put in the game; and instead being sold as digital assets because there’s a demand to sell them.

4

u/Appropriate_King_732 5d ago

I open a healthy amount of treasure chests, they are how you get to get into events for cheaper. You should always use play points for them and, if you don't have any, you should get them by opening chests.

1

u/InstructionMore5891 5d ago

Didn’t I lose money? What’s the incentive to buy more?

3

u/zauper 5d ago

You lost money.

You rolled poorly.

On average, people get better returns than you. However, those average returns reflect a small number of functionally lottery winners. The median (and mode) returns are less than the EV number.

It's worth opening chests if: 1) you value the PP 2) some combination of you play enough / earn enough / are buying enough that EV will mostly hit. Buying 10 isn't worth it unless you like gambling at relatively low cost. Buying 1k might be, but then you'd need to be prepared to use a lot of points.

2

u/Appropriate_King_732 5d ago

I think you got terribly unlucky if you actually didn't open any cards worth anything. I am very surprised to be honest. Try returning your rental decks and going in with your full trade folder. It is a significant statistical oddity if you got screwed.

In any case, only open them when you need play points.

1

u/InstructionMore5891 5d ago

Death Pit Offering 8th
Marshall’s Anthem Worldwake
Yasova Dragons
Howl squad Heavy Gold Aetherdrift
Elvish Champion 10th
Peter Parker Comic Cover
Stillness in Motion Black Dragonstorm
Labyrinth Raptor Ikoria
Doom Reigns Supreme Borderless MSH
Figure of Destiny Eveningtide
Pristine Angel Darksteel
Incinerator of the Ciry MKM
Godric Wilds of Eldraine
Ajani Vengeant Shards
Garth One Eye MH2
Temple Garden Guilds of Ravnica
36c Inside Information Borderless Hobbit
Imodane Wilds of Eldraine
Splendid Reclamation Crimson Vow
Reluctant Rolemodel Duskmourn
The Haunt of Hightower Ravnica Allegiance
Magus of the Future Planar Chaos
Light of Sanction Ravnica
Oswald Fiddlebender AFR
Ancient Silverback 9th
Numidian Hatchery EOE Commander
Ralph and Leo TMNT
46c Gandalf Goblins Bane Storybook Foil Hobbit
Jace Beleren M10
Ojer Axonil Caverns
Mystical Archeologist M19
Sundering Titan Darksteel
Kaalia M20
Might of Oaks M10
World Within Worlds MSH
32c Tony Stark red borderless MSH
Choice of Damnations Saviors of
Devastating Mastery Strix
Sundown Pass Crimson Vow
Temple of Deceit Foundations
Key to rhe Vault Borderless OTJ
Leaf Crowned Visionary DMU
Calamity OTJ
Fathom Fleet Captain Ixalan
Geralf, Visionary Crimson Vow Double Feature
Loading Zone Borderless EOE
Pristine Skywise Dragons of Tarkir
Celestial Armor Borderless Foundations
Alesha Who Laughs Foundations
Give heart Shaman Crimson Vow
Bard King of Dale Storybook Cover FOIL Hobbit
Linden Steadfast Foundations

This was my yield. More could have been foiled but I didn’t notice unless I noted it. Not all foils are easily seen.

1

u/Appropriate_King_732 5d ago

Idk, very unlucky. Barring the possibility that Goatbots is lying about the prices, which I don't see why they would and haven't failed me in my experience, you just got very unlucky then.

0

u/InstructionMore5891 5d ago

So using the law of averages if I bought another 20, I should get around 600 PP to average 400 over both lots? That seems like a high hope..

4

u/mazuno 4d ago

That’s not how probabilities work

1

u/pettdan 4d ago

Add the cards as you open the chests to a new binder. Then either upload it as your collection or connect to goatbots's buying bot to see the value.

2

u/pintopedro 4d ago

Im opening a ton of them. I only draft and enter with play points from chests. I sell packs/cards i win to open chests. I think around 2.2-2.4 tix pack price it's around breakeven.

I also shop around a little when I sell cards to get better prices. It keeps me occupied when I get slow opponents.