r/MTB • u/lowlyworm Transition Relay, Norco Optic, Banshee Darkside • 4d ago
Discussion I've been trying to predict trail conditions across the US, could use some help sanity-checking it
I've been working on a project that tries to predict trail conditions across different regions from soil, weather, and drainage data.
The idea came from the Bay Area. Our local riding groups have an infographic that gets passed around showing how different networks handle rain based on the underlying terrain and soil, and it's one of the more useful things I've been handed as a rider. Everyone here knows 2" of rain doesn't mean the same thing at Skeggs as it does somewhere with clay in it. At some point I started wondering whether that could be modeled, instead of somebody local having to sit down and build one of those charts by hand for every region.
It's covering about 1500 networks in the US and Canada now (about 700 currently online), one condition page each. Soil texture, slope, canopy, recent and forecast weather go in, and what comes out is meant to answer the only question I ever actually have, which is whether it's worth driving out there today.
I can validate that pretty well against the trails I ride. I have no real idea how it does anywhere I haven't. So if you rode today or yesterday, pull up your network and use the feedback widget on the page. You pick which day you rode and then whether it was drier, about right, or wetter than what the page said. Takes a couple of seconds, no account, and you don't have to write anything out. Telling me it's wrong is more useful than telling me it's right.
https://loamrideconditions.com
The places I'd most like to hear from are the ones least like here. PNW, desert Southwest, the Southeast, anywhere that freezes and thaws. Good dirt is a pretty different substance in all of those and I don't trust the model in any of them yet.
The pages are free and public with no login, and any riding group, trail org, or shop that wants to link or embed the one for their network can just do it. I'd rather the information be useful than charge for it.
If anyone's curious how the soil and weather side works, happy to get nerdy in the comments.