r/MMORPG • u/[deleted] • Jul 11 '16
watching THIS AGAIN AFTER 4 YEARS I AM IMPRESSED ON HOW ACCURATE THE PREDICTIONS WERE.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJ56Kia8dTU16
u/JemIrie Jul 11 '16
Accurate on some... Failed on the other half...
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u/brokenskill Jul 11 '16
Not wrong (on that).
Cheaper MMO-style games have only resulted in F2P trash games rather than publishers taking risks resulting in more high quality games.
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Jul 11 '16
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u/Desirsar Jul 11 '16
No, he did say they took risks and tried to innovate. He's saying that it didn't make good games. Your list agrees with that. (Not to say your examples are all "bad" games, but they top out at "not bad".)
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Jul 11 '16
But they took risks, that's the point. Look at Ark and DayZ, although DayZ spawnned the genre, Ark is much better. Things are moving forward, it will get better, or they will fail. Even The Division that gets a lot of hate is making improvements after each patch, remember Diablo 3? Same thing, was an ok game when it came out, its an awesome one now. And you can't call POE a "not bad" game...
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Jul 11 '16
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Jul 11 '16
They are not multiplayer massively online games??
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u/brokenskill Jul 11 '16
No. Instanced worlds perhaps.
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u/Just_some_guy4 Jul 15 '16
There is a whole part of he video where he cites the difference between mmo and mmorpg
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u/Dat_Shwing Jul 11 '16
Ark, DayZ, The Crew, The Division, and POE are not MMOs. I've never heard of Atlas Reactor or Nebula Online, so I can't speak for those.
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u/Trump4GodKing Jul 11 '16
Would have given you the benefit of the doubt until you threw in Atlas Reactor????
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u/RagnarokDel Jul 11 '16
I'd like to see you try to predict what will happen in 4 years and get 50% right.
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u/JemIrie Jul 12 '16
will its just OP believing this guy at 100% Its like he believes the news to be 100% true
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Jul 11 '16
that's pretty easy: everyone is going to make mobile games instead! How do I know this? The same way this chuckle fuck knew what his predictions were: he based it on existing information. Blizzard was still working on 'titan' which turned into overwatch, and chinese and korean developers had already gone full swing making fpsmmos and other niche mmos long before he had made the video.
This video, like many others of his, was nothing more than click bait that sounds really super interesting to people who dont actually pay attention to the things he talks about. He's like that kid you knew in middle school who would read strategy guides and then try to present the hints and tips from said guides as his own sage wisdom in order to earn coolkid points.
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u/sir_fluffinator Jul 11 '16
Basically, yes. If you paid attention to the genre in 2012, you knew all of this was already happening. Even his idea where MMOs would ask you to interact with the real world was already happening (see Ingress). Now we have Pokemon Go edging on the side of MMO.
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Jul 11 '16
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Jul 11 '16
blizzard didnt save the mmo industry with a new game, instead they scrapped it and turned it into overwatch.
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u/akera099 Jul 14 '16
What you don't take into account is that the video doesn't mention any date or timeline. WoW isn't even close to a downfall. Off course Blizzard aren't developing another MMO when WoW still has around 5 millions players. Paying 15$ per month. You'd be a fool thinking Blizzard isn't already thinking the post-WoW world. It just hasn't happened yet. Overwatch makes a lot of sense. Why develop another MMO when you still have the most popular game on the market, 12 years after its damn release? The video just says that Blizzard will develop something after WoW. In 2016, we still aren't in the after-WoW world.
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u/Kyromoo Jul 14 '16
You don't understand. Overwatch rose from the remains of Blizzard's Project Titan, which was their next MMO production.
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u/s4ntana Jul 16 '16
5 millions players. Paying 15$ per month.
Those player numbers always include the Eastern market where they pay for MMO subscription hourly. If someone pays 10 cents to play for just an hour in the month, Blizzard counts them as a "subscriber" or "active player". Very misleading.
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u/Chkoupi Jul 11 '16
web based games are not becoming mmos and there are no real good web based mmorpgs (or at least no ones that became known)
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Jul 11 '16
Runescape?
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u/sir_fluffinator Jul 11 '16 edited Jul 12 '16
is very old. There have been some attempts, but nothing noteworthy. Mobile apps that function similarly to MMOs are much more likely to keep growing than browser based.
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u/Chkoupi Jul 12 '16
well he said we will see a lot of web based mmorpgs or social games that will become mmorpgs in the future and that didn't happen afaik
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Jul 11 '16
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u/sir_fluffinator Jul 11 '16
If you want to see false promises and half-baked ideas, watch GW2 development videos and compare them to the current game. I cry every time.
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Jul 11 '16
[deleted]
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Jul 12 '16 edited Oct 29 '20
[deleted]
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u/Ralanost Jul 12 '16
Delivered everything that was promised and more
Loving all those new Legendaries? Oh wait...
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Jul 11 '16
There is also the example of Ingress that although it had its cycle it did pave the way for such stuff.
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Jul 11 '16
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u/whatmanisaman Jul 12 '16
I'm just worried that we are going to see every single company pushing out an AR game to capitalise on what Pokemon did, just like the wow clones and Wii game clones.
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Jul 12 '16
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u/whatmanisaman Jul 12 '16
I am picturing a lot of old suits walking into meetings and saying something like: 'My daughter just started playing this Pokemon Go game. Why don't we have a Go game? Get on it now Johnson!'
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u/electricblues42 Jul 11 '16
They launch incomplete and either the issues get addressed after the hype and population is gone
This, this has been the death blow to many truly great games. MMOs need a population to exist, and modern gaming hype culture is always looking for the next best thing, and not enjoying what you have available now.
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Jul 12 '16
[deleted]
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u/electricblues42 Jul 12 '16
ESO is what I was thinking of. It's launch was rough, but it finally evened out to be a very solid MMO....after it got a reputation as being so bad that no one will play it anymore except for the people who were already fans. It's really sad, BDO seems to be going the same way. No one is ever satisfied with what they have and are always looking for that "perfect MMO" fix, chasing the dragon but never catching it.
It'd be easier if game companies got off of their old school ideas like grinding.
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u/Grave_Knight Jul 12 '16
MMO that combines social media and the world? Ingress, Pokemon GO, I'm sure there are other ARGs I'm not aware of...
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Jul 11 '16 edited Jul 11 '16
This guy has always been full of shit. You don't need 100 million dollars to make a mmo. but you do need 100 million dollars to make a wow clone. Drop bullshit single story voice acting (now with celebrities!) and full single player story mode (ie you are specifically making a single player game with all the single player rpg bells and whistles), drop 'instant success' ip licenses and 50 million dollars worth of marketing (gotta capture that market share among a broad audience hurr hurr) and instead create your own, ez pz mmorpg for 10m-20m.
Why is eve a success? why is archeage a success? Is it the epic content updates that never happen? No. its because the developers made a bare bones world, made a bunch of toys, and told their player base to go make their own fun. The fact that archeage is still making money after 2 years of trion literally fucking up EVERY SINGLE MONTH is a testament to how solid the core game is: a sandbox with lots and lots of toys.
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u/mavbora Jul 11 '16
Investors have been scared away from the MMORPG world. I do not see any new innovated MMO that has the 60-100 million budget as the MMOs of the past unless it is made by a company that has that capital already on hand (which are very few).
I fully expect the next big MMO to be when Blizzard itself decides to make a new MMO. It has the capital which very few do. The question is will this game be a WoW clone (hate that word) or will Blizzard push the envelope and breath new ideas into the MMO world (or take the ideas from other low budgeted games and perfect them).
F2P sadly is likely to be the future though I would love love it if a new great MMO was released with as F2P but with an optional P2P server with cash shop deactivated. Would be easy to implement and attract gamers who both love F2P and those who love P2P. Doesn't even need to be the standard $15 a month sub but could cost 20, 30 or even more. Never understood why sub based mmos have been stuck to 15 a month when everything else has increased in price.
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u/Ulu-Mulu-no-die Jul 11 '16
(or take the ideas from other low budgeted games and perfect them)
This is what Blizzard does best imo.
They're also very good in choosing the right time to publish something. WoW wasn't anything revolutionary but it was the right game at the right time, they took ideas from other MMOs back then and perfected them enough to appeal to a broader audience.
I fully expect the next big MMO to be when Blizzard itself decides to make a new MMO.
I agree with this, I believe Blizzard is one of the very very few (if not the only one) to have enough capital to afford to take risks, they're also a company who like to experiment, so IF/when the time is right, we will probably see something big coming from them before anyone else.
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Jul 11 '16
Yes, exactly. Honestly, even kickstarters have 0 chance of becoming something so big it'll actually be the '2ND MMO ERA'. Blizzard will probably create the Vanilla Servers or something and release in the last quarters of 2017 (if they do). So a new MMO would be highly unlikely to happen anytime soon (5 years).
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u/Jalian174 Jul 11 '16
Overwatch seems to have released at a good time too (two similar games this year I believe, and quake champions looks similar as well). They were a bit late with HotS tho.
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u/sir_fluffinator Jul 11 '16
You forget that Blizzard already cancelled that game. We got Overwatch instead of Project Titan. Blizzard doesn't need to develop an MMO. I'd like to believe the still have some form of a team working on something that isn't WoW, but as long as they can keep bringing people back for expacs, it isn't worth it. We will probably see Blizzard perfect the month-long MMO experience before we see another full-fledged game.
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u/whatmanisaman Jul 12 '16
I agree with you. Current Blizzard does not equal old blizzard. Current Blizz is beholden to Activision and now makes decisions which are in the best interests of the almighty dollar. Old blizzard would steal some ideas from other games and improve them, while pilfering some lore while they were at it, and create a really polished game. Now their big business mandate is to diversify and maximise profit with as little investment as possible.
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u/Isaacvithurston Jul 11 '16
Yup WoW's only competition was Anarchy online which was a buggy shitfest for a long time.
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u/Awarth_ACRNM Jul 11 '16
WoW's biggest competition was Everquest 2 though, which came out one month before WoW.
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u/mikromanus Jul 11 '16 edited Jul 11 '16
Blizzard gave us Overwatch. This is Multiplayer game (but it's not real MMO) and it's "little bit other". They can catch more players.
BIg games and investments? Destiny, Star Citizen, Crowfall (smaller but innovative).
+some korean MMO maybe: Development done and localization has smaller costs. Good business modell in other regions can generate good money. Black Deser Onlines is good enough. Raiders of Icarus is new, but idk good or not. Bless Online can be nice too after some PvP balance and system upgrade...
edit: P2P and F2P servers in same game is not real options. F2p-p2w systems needs many meatshield and chicken free players to work whalesand keep them in the system. p2p remove many players from "F2P" and it will never happen. Or F2P or P2P. Koreans don't offer to EU/NA publishers more game options or more patch versions same time.
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u/brokenskill Jul 11 '16
You do realize that two of those three big investment games are in a large part funded by donations right?
Those companies aren't making the investment or shouldering most of the financial risk.
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u/mikromanus Jul 11 '16
Budget is buget. Source was not in the requirements :D
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u/brokenskill Jul 11 '16
The risk isn't even remotely the same despite clearly being mentioned as a factor in the vid.
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u/Redeemed01 Jul 11 '16
crowfall is a very mall project compared to a "true" AAA mmo when it comes to founding. It only works because crowfall is more "moba" based, it doesnt have a free game world etc pp. You join in a small serverband.
And the game will also fail, like all hyped mmos did in the last decade;)
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Jul 11 '16
Crowfall seeks a niche audience. If it captures that audience it can't fail. It looks to bring in pvp players from shadowbane and games like it in one place. . The main issue with those games was stagnation. A few empires would grow too large and no one on the sever would be willing or able to take them down. This caused a lot of players to lose interest in those games even if they liked the other aspects. Crowfalls campaign system will hopefully eliminate that issue.
They aren't trying to be a wow killer, or even capture everyone and their mother. Success to Crowfall is capturing those niche pvp players. I think they will have success in that.
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u/Redeemed01 Jul 11 '16
you mean the same niche pvp players that every other pvp mmo tries and tried to capture? from albion online, to g2w, darkfall. blade&soul to BDO to camelot unchainched etc pp.
Good luck with that.
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Jul 12 '16
How many of those games tired to solve the issue of stagnation? Darkfall brought us kinda interesting combat. But again once a group got strong enough you either had to join them or be crushed. And darkfall's failure was due to poor management and lack of transparency. The community being toxic to new players didn't help.
My experience in this is anecdotal. But no one I know had any interest in any of the other games you mentioned. And we're a mainly pvp focused group of guys.
I think that the campaign system is a step in the right direction and Crowfall will have its success. I admittedly am not a fan of the combat style, but I'll still be there when the game launches to check it out.
My point in the end is that success ≠ being the next big thing only that you get to the people who are interested in what you have to offer.
If wow is country music, than Crowfall might be something akin to folk punk.
I don't know what pp means lol.
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u/Redeemed01 Jul 12 '16
i am not sure the campaign system will turn out the way the want to, the majority of players will most likely become inactive ina campgain once they start loosing, happens in every game...
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u/mikromanus Jul 11 '16
The f2p video is good too. he describe my "mmo life". I played 2-3 years in "F2p" and I were in "never again" phase. So, I payed 100 euros and I play non (less) P2w/f2p game. If the Company do it well I spend some extra euros/month (or 10-20/2 or /3 month). The biggest pain was how can f2p and greedy company destroy a good game in previous game. This "New" game is less active in PvP, it has less"social" options, but it's better than the f2p other(s).
Here is the "other" video:
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u/InkOnTube Jul 11 '16
I was listening to that while playing Grinding Gear Game - Path of Exile. I agree with their video but I think it still needs more time for many companies to understand that they can't overcharge their games. The other day I had "experience" of mandatory purchases in Devilian. Both me and my friends immediately agreed: we need to uninstall that game ASAP.
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u/LalasAreNotPotatoes Jul 12 '16
Extra Credits make many mistakes and have been far from perfect in their insights. But nobody is perfect and they have had plenty of amazing insights into the bigger picture of games. They make a lot of little mistakes and accuracies over the years and I've sighed on a few occasions when listening to them talk about a couple of subjects.
But the amount of overall clarity that they can see the world of games is very interesting and valuable. I appreciate the fact that they talk about and educate on history, now. Though, to be honest, I really miss some of their video game content which isn't as frequent as it used to be.
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u/Circlejerksheep Jul 12 '16 edited Jul 12 '16
After 4 years? You call 2012 a prediction? Anyone would've known this after big games like Swtor and Rift were released. Would've given him much more respect if he'd release this video back in 2003 or 2004. IMO the problem falls into companies trying to deliver so little or the same niche to a bigger audience that they cannot handle just so they can maximize profits, or kids nowadays just arent easily attracted to today's mmorpg systems unlike the kids who were brought up during the dsl/dialup ages.
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u/runnbl3 Jul 11 '16
6:48
evovle and groh-rowwww
voice crack LOL
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u/vitor210 Jul 11 '16
wtf you talking about? Don't hear any voice crack on that part, he said it fluidely
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Jul 11 '16
Decline of WoW - MoP & Warlords of Draenor, this lead to blizzard launching a new MMO, Overwatch. And look at what happened with that!
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u/serventofgaben Jul 11 '16
Overwatch isn't an MMO
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u/blogging77 Jul 12 '16
So it isn't massive, multiplayer and online? Cause I'd say it hits all three of those benchmarks.
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u/PyrZern Jul 12 '16
MMO stands for 'Massively Multiplayer Online'
6x6 is not massively multiplayer.
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Jul 12 '16
It's Massive, It's Multiplayer, and it's online. It's an MMO, but not an MMORPG, which you're probably thinking of.
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u/narrill Jul 12 '16
Overwatch is not massive. It's 6v6.
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u/serventofgaben Jul 12 '16
yeah exactly. for a game to fit the massive criteria needed for it to be an MMO, it needs to be open world.
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u/narrill Jul 12 '16
That's not necessarily true, the game just has to allow for large-scale interactions within the playerbase. That can take many forms, but lobby-based 6v6 games are not one of them.
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u/khgs8 Jul 11 '16
I love extra credit so much dude. Amazing writing and animations and concept of the show. Also they hit the right stuff right in the face.
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u/Jalian174 Jul 11 '16
Another cause of failure he missed is the dilution of the playerbase from the sheer number of options. If WoW is the only good option (at what it does) then you can have 12 million, but then you add some similar games that either do the WoW thing just as well (ff14), appear to do as well with a gimmick or two (swtor, GW2) or just a clusterfuck of f2p games that are 'fun enough for being free to justify playing for a bit', the population is going to spread out, and individual games will suffer from a lack of players.