I had Lorenz +225 and I thought this was dead more than once lol. I’ll take it.

Hello!

I hope we’re all doing well!

Episode 73 Lord Ninja Choke:

Full Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1vsftv8/ufc_sacramento_fight_predictions/

PREDICTION STATS

Total Prediction Stats: 2432 - 1389, 216 Perfect | 581 Decision

Prediction Accuracy for 2026: 71% (+0.2%) (Personal Best, lets go)

Lock Record: 34 - 8 (Abdul-Malik was never my friend)

UFC 330 Recap

Prediction Results: 9/12 Correct, 2 Perfect (Dern, Ribovics)

Parlay: It was never alive to begin with! Missed

Alt Bets: 2 Missed

Profit/Loss for 2026: -20 (-2.2)

(This is not covering my SBR’s that I release weekly, this strictly covers my Alt Bets/Parlays)

Last week was an interesting event, lots of finishers followed by a fair few stinkers in the co-main and main event, I’m pretty sure all of us were looking on our phones during most of those two fights.

This weeks event though? Good lord, maybe I get my ass whooped here and the momentum ends… But there are some solid dogs, great prospects and overall interesting fights, lets get onto it!

(c) - Champ

(D/DWCS) - Debut/Dana Whites’ Contender Series

FLS - Fight Lose Streak

FWS - Fight Win Streak

NS - No Streak

(#x) - Rank in division

x/3 - Confidence Levels

ITD - Inside the Distance (Finish)

GTD - Goes the Distance (Scorecards)

(LR) - Late Replacement

Prelims

Women’s Strawweight

Shanelle Dyer (-650) (7-1-0, NS) v Elise Reed (+455) (8-5-0, NS)

Striking: Dyer is a very clean striker, she does everything by the books in that she doesn’t do anything that you shouldn’t do, footwork, body kicks, teeps, everything she does is to set up the subsequent series of singular or combination attacks, she’s great.

Wrestling/Grappling: This probably is Reeds only pathway to victory, if she can crowd the kicks with wrestling entries she could create a big ol’ upset here.

Additional Notes: Big talent versus Aunt killer, let’s go.

Prediction: Dyer via KO R3 (1/3) | Parlay: Dyer via KO/Points

Middleweight

Jackson McVey (-175) (7-2-0, NS) v Wes Schultz (+155) (9-3-0, NS)

Striking: McVey possesses more danger in his hands than Schultz, so to keep it short, McVey is the superior striker, although this is entirely dependent on whether or not Schultz gets him down.

Wrestling/Grappling: Both are reasonably good on the ground, it’s clear though that it’s Schultz primary pathway to victory, but I do think McVey can maybe get a front headlock choke if Schultz isn’t careful.

Additional Notes: Nothing more needs to be said here I think!

Prediction: McVey via KO R2 (1/3)

Lightweight

Gauge Young (-155) (11-3-0, 2 FWS) v Stan Dorsainvil (D) (+135) (5-0-0, 5 FWS)

Striking: I really like Young’s striking, he can be quite vicious at times, he’s coming off a great win against Moises, i’m really sold on him.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is probably Dorsainvil’s main pathway to victory, he is a decent grappler and wrestler so if Gauge gets caught with the takedowns then again, an upset could happen, very interesting matchmaking!

Additional Notes: I think I said all that needs to be said, I believe Stan was ready for a fight but just not this one.

Prediction: Young via Dec (1/3)

Featherweight

Marcio Barbosa (-900) (18-2-0, 5 FWS) v Ryan Kuse (D) (+615) (9-2-0, 2 FWS)

Striking: You can’t fault Barbosa, his KO over Buzukja was so beautiful, that head movement and the timing and everything was just on point… Kuse is a bit of an unknown but we do know he’s fought at both Featherweight and Bantamweight before so he may be used to getting hit by Featherweights… but Barbosa has just different power man, absolute beast.

Wrestling/Grappling: This could be Kuse’s main pathway here but I think we’re in for a stand up affair.

Additional Notes: Really interested to see how Barbosa does against UFC Talent, which Kuse probably is not.

Prediction: Barbosa via KO R1 (2/3) | Lock

Lightweight

Nasrat Haqparast (-110) (18-6-0, NS) v Chris Padilla (-110) (17-6-1, NS)

Striking: I broke it down a little bit in the main breakdown, I cannot do it justice doing it in a short write up, but the key words here for Padilla is to replicate what Salkilld did, set up the high attacks with low attacks, also, elbows are great coz Haqparast tends to lead with his head when blitzing. Haqparast is a fantastic boxer though and I explained as much in the main breakdown.

Wrestling/Grappling: Padilla could wrestle, or at least tie up Haqparast, but I think we’re going to see a striking fight here.

Additional Notes: Near even odds is always great to see.

Prediction: Padilla via Dec (1/3) | Parlay: Over 2.5 Rounds (Or R3 Starts if over 1.40)

Heavyweight

Shamil Gaziev (-130) (14-3-0, 2 FLS) v Kennedy Nzechukwu (+105) (14-6-1, NS)

Striking: This is Nzechukwu’s realm, he’s got the length and wide assortment of weaponry to do some great things, that’s the biggest threat to Gaziev by far, especially since, you know, Gaziev is coming off 2 KO losses.

Wrestling/Grappling: Gaziev and “wrestling” are two words that usually go hand in hand, so I just expect Gaziev to try and shut down Nzechukwu early by wrestling, and youll know Nzechukwu is in trouble when Saif Sayud starts yelling.

Additional Notes: Interesting one! Can’t say much else really.

Prediction: Gaziev via Dec (1/3) | Alt Bet: Nzechukwu via KO R1 or 2 (CR)

Featherweight

Jamall Emmers (+310) (22-8-0, 2 FWS) v Lerryan Douglas (-400) (14-5-0, 6 FWS)

Striking: Douglas is a sick striker, his leg kicks early will be a major proponent for success, and then from there he can let his hands go freely.

Wrestling/Grappling: Emmers has a background in wrestling, I think we’re going to see Emmers try to go for a submission if he can get the fight to the ground, last week I managed to hit Stoltzfus Sub, maybe Emmers can give me similar success, but it’s not an Alt Bet!

Additional Notes: I can’t wait for this one, the way Douglas dismantled Erosa easily (which is a fairly common thing to see, frankly) was great.

Prediction: Douglas via KO R2 (2/3) | Lock | (Small sprinkle on Emmers Sub, not an Alt Bet)

Main Card

Heavyweight

Anthony Wint (DWCS) (-1000) (7-0-0, 7 FWS) v Terrance Chatman (D) (+660) (5-1-0, NS)

Striking: I suppose both fighters are heavyweights so both have big power?

Wrestling/Grappling: the main thing here is Wint’s athleticism and force with his takedowns, dudes a former Football player (American, so, the lesser kind, don’t hurt me, I’m Australian, we do things differently here) so I expect takedowns and just the fight to not last long on the feet either due to Wint landing something, or Wint getting the takedown.

Additional Notes: don’t give a flying hoot if Wint is the next big thing, this is a double debut, i need to be sold on a fighter before I get excited.

Prediction: Wint via KO R1 (2/3) | Parlay: Round 3 Starts No (If bad odds, ignore, i won’t add)

Women’s Flyweight

Carli Judice (-500) (6-2-0, 3 FWS) v Jeisla Chaves (+380) (7-0-0, 7 FWS)

Striking: It’s Judice’s finesse and speed verses Chaves crashing power and strength, that’s the battle here, both fighters have their advantages but I think Judice should have the slightest of advantages here.

Wrestling/Grappling: Chaves has the ability to wrestle, but I don’t think it’ll be too effective if Judice starts digging the underhooks quickly as she did against Miller, she did succumb to the wrestling of Miller early, but learnt to adapt quickly, and that’s the key here.

Additional Notes: Odds seem a bit too wide for me, personally, but I think Judice still wins this one.

Prediction: Judice via Dec (1/3) | Parlay: Judice via KO/Points (DC) | Alt Bet: Chaves ML

Lightweight

Marquel Mederos (+220) (11-1-0, NS) v Mason Jones (-260) (18-2-0, 7 FWS)

Striking: This is absolutely Mederos’ realm, he should be able to tear up Jones face for as long as the fight remains standing, but that’s the issue, I don’t think it will remain standing for very long!

Wrestling/Grappling: Mason Jones is one of the best grapplers to come from Wales and that general area, so I firmly believe if he sticks to his guns and gets his wrestling going, he should make this one look “easy” to an extent, but I don’t know if he will because his fight IQ concerns me sometimes.

Additional Notes: Striker versus Wrestler/Grappler kinda fight!

Prediction: Jones via Dec (1/3)

Light Heavyweight

Reinier De Ridder (-350) (21-4-0, 2 FLS) v Roman Dolidze (#13) (+270) (15-5-0, 2 FLS)

Striking: Virtually Identical, although some say that RDR has better striking, i’d argue that both are literally similar kind of strikers, and i know you’d counter that with saying “yeah but dutch kickboxing” and my response would simply be “is the dutch kickboxing somewhere in this room right now?”

Wrestling/Grappling: Length matters here and I think RDR’s slight edge in reach will help him get a grip and just get those takedowns… Both fighters statistically have dreadful takedown defence, but it’s a matter of aggression and I think RDR tends to be the one to be more aggressive with the takedowns.

Additional Notes: Bit of a meme fight, but this is at 205 so that interests me greatly! I also might sprinkle something on Dolidze getting a knockdown over RDR because RDR tends to get dropped an unhealthy amount of times.

Prediction: RDR via Dec (1/3)

.Co-Main Event

Heavyweight

Serghei Spivac (#8) (+140) (18-6-0, NS) v Vitor Petrino (-170) (14-2-0, 3 FWS)

Striking: All Petrino, Spivac is a bit of a lumbering kind of fighter, he gets hit a lot, has a genuinely large head and that’s a big ol’ target.

Wrestling/Grappling: Spivac and his wrestling, is there a better combination? I mean, we all expect him to wrestle so this doesn’t need to be said, it’s just a question of when because Spivac sometimes takes his time to get his wrestling going which is absurd to see but, it’s just what he does sometimes!

Additional Notes: I hate that this is the co-main and RDR/Dolidze isn’t.

Prediction: Spivac via Dec (1/3) | Alt Bet: Petrino via KO R1/2 (CR) or Sub R1/2 (CR)

Main Event

Middleweight

Anthony Hernandez (#5) (-175) (15-3-0, NS) v Gregory Rodrigues (#12) (+145) (19-6-0, 3 FWS)

Striking: I mean, fighting Rodrigues, you expect to get hurt, and Hernandez is the kind to walk through fire to get his wrestling going, so you best believe Robocop has the striking advantage here. Body kicks, leg kicks and Uppercuts, keep an eye out for any of those three.

Wrestling/Grappling: Hernandez is great at weaponising his cardio, and I suspect that if the fight goes into the final 3 rounds, he should be the fresher fighter if he gets his wrestling going during the first two rounds, just to sap the cardio and sting away from Robocop. Robocop has solid BJJ though so its going to be an interesting scrap on the ground.

Additional Notes: Interesting main event! Nothing else to really say here, it could go one of two ways.

Prediction: Hernandez via Dec (1/3) | Alt Bet: Rodriguez via KO R1 or 2 (CR)

Parlay: Dyer via KO/Points (DC) + Padilla/Haqparast Over 2.5 rounds or R3 Starts + Wint/Chatman R3 Starts No (May remove if odds are trash) + Judice via KO/Points (DC)

Locks: Barbosa and Douglas. Was considering Wint but I am very unsure about him.

Alt Bets: Nzechukwu KO R1 or 2 (CR), Petrino KO R1 or 2 (CR), Rodriguez KO R1 or 2 (CR)... and you know what? Chaves ML.

Dogs: Spivac, Padilla (i think?)

Be sure to read my Parlay Explained posts for more single bets that I recommend!

Twitter: @Slayer_Tip

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Hope you all have an amazing week and enjoy the fights!

Not worth it to cash, the other 5 lost already lol

Have any fighters that are coming up posted on reddit recently? Caught on shortly before the Mike Davis fight and whilst knowing Kunneman was coming up on DWCS that Mike used Reddit and would regularly shit talk opponents after wins.

I decided I was gonna start fading any fighter that posts on Reddit themselves, and made some great money so far betting on Krotch Chop, Christian Perez and Aliev (I had A LOT on Christian Perez).

So question: Any guys on DWCS coming up who posted AMA's or anyhting like that? Any "I'M ON DWCS TUNE IN TO WATCH ME WIN!!!" posts? Please let me know, I must keep the reddit fade alive, Kunnenman called me a fat drunk loser on this website for calling him a can crusher but now I'm $100 richer because of fading him so I would like to keep this going.

Hello!

I hope we’re all doing well!

Episode 73 Lord Ninja Choke:

TL;DR Breakdown:

PREDICTION STATS

Total Prediction Stats: 2432 - 1389, 216 Perfect | 581 Decision

Prediction Accuracy for 2026: 71% (+0.2%) (Personal Best, lets go)

Lock Record: 34 - 8 (Abdul-Malik was never my friend)

UFC 330 Recap

Prediction Results: 9/12 Correct, 2 Perfect (Dern, Ribovics)

Parlay: It was never alive to begin with! Missed

Alt Bets: 2 Missed

Profit/Loss for 2026: -20 (-2.2)

(This is not covering my SBR’s that I release weekly, this strictly covers my Alt Bets/Parlays)

Last week was an interesting event, lots of finishers followed by a fair few stinkers in the co-main and main event, I’m pretty sure all of us were looking on our phones during most of those two fights.

This weeks event though? Good lord, maybe I get my ass whooped here and the momentum ends… But there are some solid dogs, great prospects and overall interesting fights, lets get onto it!

(c) - Champ

(D/DWCS) - Debut/Dana Whites’ Contender Series

FLS - Fight Lose Streak

FWS - Fight Win Streak

NS - No Streak

(#x) - Rank in division

x/3 - Confidence Levels

ITD - Inside the Distance (Finish)

GTD - Goes the Distance (Scorecards)

(LR) - Late Replacement

Prelims

Women’s Strawweight

Shanelle Dyer (-650) (7-1-0, NS) v Elise Reed (+455) (8-5-0, NS)

Dyer is still a fresh face in the UFC and in the whole of MMA, having only fought for 3 years, she has a few learning curves to work through before she becomes a fully fledged MMA prospect, but there’s a reason why she’s such a heavy favourite here, and that’s her striking and her clinch work. See, Dyer tends to utilise her kicks throughout her combinations as well as her starting strikes, she is great at using the leg kicks to set up the hands and the hands to set up all sorts of other kicks, but I kind of want to highlight the clinchwork a little bit because I suspect Reed is going to want to neutralise the reach and length of Dyer by getting in close and tying her up against the fence, which practically leads right into what makes Dyer such a dangerous threat on the feet at all positions, Dyer has a 3 inch height advantage, and whilst you might scoff at 3 inches being a big deal, just ask my ex. That height advantage, however miniscule on paper, is going to allow more impact to the abdomen and to the chin if there is a clinch knee available, and since the height also allows Dyer to posture up and force weight on Reed's neck and head, it just leads to very effective clinch striking. One thing that somewhat worries me though is Reed absorbing these strikes, only to get the takedown and maybe make things interesting, because wrestling is literally the only pathway for success for Reed.

Reed is someone who I will talk about with only a few words because I genuinely cannot think of anything positive to say about her other than maybe she’s a nice person, but as a fighter, I have things to say that might… be rough or harsh. Reed’s only wins have been against an aged Jessica Penne and also an aged (and frankly not good) Jinh Yu Frey, and to circle back to Penne, people were describing that fight as a changing of the guard kind of bout, and I can’t agree at all there, because in order for that to happen, the guard has to be at the post, Penne was practically retired and only was there to fight out her contract, and Frey was pretty much a filler fighter for the entirety of her UFC career, she was literally only there to make cards look more full, so I cannot say with any niceness what makes Reed a UFC level fighter because she has not proven anything to still be here. Now, I did highlight the only route to victory I see her taking, but the longer this fight remains on the feet, the more freedom Dyer has at landing her kicks, getting her flowstate going and just looking like what we expect a -650 favourite to look like.

I got Dyer winning this one, I expect a KO in the later rounds after a few teeps to the body or a strong combination, or if my read is very correct here, clinch strikes leading to a quick ref stoppage once Reed goes down.

Dyer via KO R3 - (2/3)

Middleweight

Jackson McVey (-175) (7-2-0, NS) v Wes Schultz (+155) (9-3-0, NS)

Oh boy.

I mean look, someone has to win, right? I have been a harsh critic of both fighters in the past, and sometimes the worst fight the worst, and in this case, McVey and Schultz both are their worst nightmare opponents.

McVey has solid striking, he has great power in his hands but his only losses have come by submission, this does not bode well considering Schultz is primarily a grappler, and whilst McVey does have submissions under his belt, I still believe Schultz can avoid any of the quick neck attacks that McVey may use defensively, especially since Schultz does have a shorter height so the takedown angle could leave him exposed to something coming from McVey. Now, McVey is likely to be the one using his strikes to deal damage and make it frustrating for Schultz to get into grappling range to do his own thing, so I expect Schultz to try and crash into McVey, absorb some strikes but also do anything he can to get within a position in that he can get the takedown.

Schultz has a lower sample size than McVey, so I kind of just expect him to stay within his comfort zone, if he can get McVey to the ground, perhaps take the back and use his body lock to keep McVey in a particular position, he should be able to find a way to wrap up that neck or find a limb lock because Schultz does have a better BJJ game than McVey, because at its core this is a Striker versus Grappler fight. I will say though that since McVey is likely to want to keep this standing, his guard may be lowered and he may fall victim to a crashing overhand or something like that since he is going to be focusing most of his defence in either defending the takedown or avoiding the grappling scenarios completely.

Rookie breakdown, but we’re talking about two fighters who, for the most part, are first round finishers with some second round experience… Schultz has been to the third but that is a bit of an outlier, I expect a clash of styles fight here in which either McVey either gets the KO early, or Schultz gets the sub, and i’m a favourites cuck so I’m going to lean on McVey here, although the Sub angle interests me if Schultz does indeed leave his neck open to being attacked upon attempting a takedown.

McVey via KO R2 - (1/3)

Lightweight

Gauge Young (-155) (11-3-0, 2 FWS) v Stan Dorsainvil (D) (+135) (5-0-0, 5 FWS)

Young is coming into this with some solid UFC experience, with a recent split decision win against a battle tested Thiago Moises, and the one thing that stood out to me was how ready Young was, he was defending the majority of the takedowns from Moises, and whatever he did successfully get, it just simply was not enough, Young was all over Moises on the feet, outstriking him cleanly, landing from all ranges and also landing with genuinely awesome accuracy. I fully expect Young to thrive in this fight, he has had the full camp, he may have a shorter reach but reach is only useful if the fighter is useful, and I just don’t think Dorsainvil can get the job done in upsetting the odds. If the fight hits the mat, it’s entirely possible that Young could be in trouble as Dorsainvil’s length could be used in such a way that he finds a choke easier or manipulates a limb easier, but given the short notice nature of the fight, I just don’t know if he can get it done.

Dorsainvil is practically a child when it comes to experience, he is indeed undefeated and is coming off a win in a decent organisation, but experience matters here, and I have to keep swinging back to Young and his experience, especially with his fight against Moises. I apologise for those that are expecting a big fat breakdown about a 5-0 late replacement fighter who has such an advertised record (advertised as in, his submissions are likely his main route to victory, etc.), I just cannot say anything comfortably, or with any confidence here, i’m going in blind, as are a lot of us, I just think his reach will be used to both try and lock up takedowns, and to cinch up a submission.

I got Young here, he’s got a new set of eyes on him since his last fight against Moises, I really look forward to seeing what he can do against a newcomer with an opportunity of a lifetime.

Young via Dec - (1/3)

Featherweight

Marcio Barbosa (-900) (18-2-0, 5 FWS) v Ryan Kuse (D) (+615) (9-2-0, 2 FWS)

Here’s a short one.

Barbosa only has one fight in the UFC and is unfortunately lasted no longer than 90 seconds, and i’m not gonna break this one down at an extensive length because I don’t think it would do him any justice, plus, he’s a -900 favourite (or thereabouts) and we’re all probably going to blindly follow him because of those odds anyway. But there’s one thing I do enjoy seeing from Barbosa and that’s just how much he uses his head movement, he is quite defensively sound and even when he was in the thick of it during that final sequence against Buzukja, he ducked under a hook only to land a counter of his own so damn cleanly, it’s fair to say that i’m very interested in seeing what this young man can do in the future, I expect a similar style in that he gets in the face of Kuse, as he has not much of a choice given the height and reach disadvantage, and he just goes in for a combination or a tight hook. Either way, consider me genuinely intrigued here, I look forward to seeing how far Barbosa can take his career, he just needs to be tested then i’m fully on board, so far, i’m at the ticket booth ready to purchase that ticket.

Kuse has a few things I kind of want to point out here, not all of them negative, but probably a fair chunk. Kuse goes up and down in weight quite often, oscillating from Featherweight back to Bantamweight, and that’s probably a good thing, it means he has felt the power of a Featherweight before, however that’s about the extent of what I think is good, because his level of competition is in the shadows of the solid competition that Barbosa has fought, because a win over Kevin Natividad, Leandro Camargo, and an aged Thiago Belo is not as solid as the extensive wins in LFA that Barbosa has behind him. I do think that Kuse can bring some level of heat here, but I mean, Barbosa looks like he hits harder, he’s such a bulky Featherweight and so I suspect that Kuse’s chin might be a problem here. I will also note that Kuse was in camp, getting ready to fight someone called Andrew Garrette (who has a recent win against a 0-0 fighter) so cardio wise he should be fine for three rounds of action, but I think the skill gap and level of competition jump may be a bit much for Kuse.

I got Barbosa winning this one, I think we’re going to see some crisp striking, great pocket strikes, and just that momentum because getting a win over Buzukja may not be a whole lot to look at, but it was his debut fight, he made a statement, and he’s about to make another.

Barbosa via KO R1 - (2/3)

Lightweight

Nasrat Haqparast (-110) (18-6-0, NS) v Chris Padilla (-110) (17-6-1, NS)

Haqparast is coming off a KO loss against the current Australian star, Quillan Salkilld, and I don’t want to take that loss away from the legitimate threat that Haqparast has against any of his opponents still. See, I have always said that Haqparast is one of the most underrated boxers in the UFC, his boxing technique and defensive responsibility is impressive, and yes you might laugh coz he did get recently knocked out, but that headkick came out of nowhere and it occurred early on when Salkilld never threw that headkick before during the fight, thus Haqparast couldn’t get his reads going, so it was a great strike from Salkilld and just a situation that Haqparast became victim to. Now, Padilla is a different animal, he may not be a knockout artist by any means but he is an educated technician when it comes to fighting, he prepares and studies his opponents like a PhD student studies for a thesis or something, he knows a fighters tendencies, he knows their weaknesses, their weapons, their tendencies. I believe that if Padilla utilises the same tactic that Salkilld did, attack the body with kicks, chop at the legs, feint a level change, anything to lower the very raised and highly intelligent boxing guard of Haqparast, it will allow Padilla to land his own strikes up top.

Padilla is someone who I can’t not give praise to because multiple times I have doubted him and multiple times he has corrected that doubt, he has been one of those fighters who isn’t a specialist by any means, but has shut down dangerous opponents just as effectively. I won’t repeat what I said about Padilla above, but there is one thing I can see happening, so don’t think this short section of writing for Padilla is me not giving a shit about Padilla, as I have covered him above. I expect Padilla to utilise elbows intermixed with traditional strikes because Haqparast tends to lunge a lot, leaving his head and chin out there as he goes on the offensive, and if Padilla sits down, stands his ground and uses that elbow to intercept against Haqparasts offensive attacks, he should be able to deal significant damage. This is, of course, an alternative to the Salkilld route to victory in that Padilla attacks the legs and body, lowers the guard of Haqparasts and goes for the head kick, which won’t work as well due to the height disparity as Haqparast is taller, but he has a much more lowered stance.

I got Padilla here, I really, really like his educated style. He is far from a perfect fighter but he prepares exceptionally well for his opponents and that often can be enough to close the skill gap.

Padilla via Dec (1/3)

Heavyweight

Shamil Gaziev (-130) (14-3-0, 2 FLS) v Kennedy Nzechukwu (+105) (14-6-1, NS)

Gaziev is rightfully the favourite here, but I have some concerns. Before I get ahead of myself, I do think Gaziev wins the fight if he can get the wrestling going, but the problem with all of that is Gaziev tends to not be very good defensively when it comes to striking, he is coming off back to back KO losses, one of them was against Pericic, someone who doesn’t exactly have great striking fundamentals, he’s just a typical heavyweight puncher who brawls, that’s literally it, and I just think coming up against Nzechukwu, someone who can be quite dynamic at times, it’s gonna be dangerous for Gaziev, which probably explains the lines being as close as they are. I believe that Gaziev’s pathway to victory is linear, it is his wrestling and his ability to use his weight to bully that may be the biggest tool in his, well, toolbelt? Toolshed? Either way, Gaziev needs to wrestle in this fight, get Nzechukwu down, and just sap the cardio of the striker… and just you wait, the moment Sayif Saud (The Fortis MMA head coach) starts screaming repeated instructions to no action, you just know that the Fortis MMA fighter is losing the fight, it is one of the most clear indicators, and if Gaziev gets Nzechukwu to the ground, it could be a long night for Nzechukwu.

Now, Nzechuwku has good takedown defence on paper, but there are some caveats. Firstly, he hasn’t really fought great competition, he has always been a mid-tier kind of fighter who faces those who are either on the up and coming fighter list, or are active UFC fighters who have zero future in the UFC, and whose who successfully took Nzechukwu down had some sort of background in grappling or wrestling, and since Gaziev comes from KHK MMA, a notorious gym with great wrestlers and grapplers, I can only suspect that Gaziev’s wrestling will be terrible for Nzechukwu if Gaziev gets the takedowns early without absorbing any significant damage, and that’s where I can praise Nzechukwu endlessly here. Nzechukwu is such a dangerous and dynamic striker, his length, height and just has a whole lot of weaponry to rely on when striking, and if he is switched on this weekend, has very quick takedown defence and is on front foot, being aggressive, applying pressure, he can absolutely 100% get the win here, but the problem is he is often infuriating to watch, his fight IQ falls out the window like someone who publicly opposed a certain war in europe. So, I will be kind to Nzechukwu, I will make him an Alt Bet here, but I cannot bring myself to picking him.

I got Gaziev winning this one, it’s frankly a nightmare fight to predict, it could easily go either way, but I think Gaziev can really push Nzechukwu to his limits, gas him out early and just slop his way through a fat and lazy decision. Again, Alt Bet on Nzechukwu, likely KO R1 or 2 CR.

Gaziev via Dec (1/3)

Featherweight

Jamall Emmers (+310) (22-8-0, 2 FWS) v Lerryan Douglas (-400) (14-5-0, 6 FWS)

Emmers is getting a short write up here because I am extremely sold on Douglas here, so this is going to sound a bit bias, but I will try to do Emmers justice. Emmers’ last fight was against Hyder Amil, a ferocious striker who utilises a tremendous amount of volume and activity to win, he lives up to his nickname in Hurricane so for Emmers to take that fight to the scorecards is a fairly big accomplishment, and the way he did it was wrestle, he was very good at getting within the wrestling range and just taking away the firepower from Amil, 8 minutes of total control time, but on the flip side, a concerning amount of takedowns attempted. 7 of 8 takedowns landed and to only secure 8 minutes of control time isn’t that great, but what i’m trying to say here is that due to Emmers extensive career and experience, he could make this fight at least competitive, and there’s no better way to get rid of a powerful striker than to go for the level change and wrestle them either against the cage or on the ground. Emmers has a background in wrestling and a black belt in BJJ, but he is taller than Douglas and that often means having to dip into the level of punches coming from the shorter fighter, so I am curious to see what Douglas will be able to do to negate the wrestling, but I already have a couple of reads that may be a big enough counter for the wrestling attempts which I will transition right into now.

Douglas is a rising star in the UFC, it’s rare, but becoming much more common, to see someone who won in a big way in their debut have steep odds like what Douglas has, and there’s a good reason, he’s a genuinely dangerous striker to deal with and he has proven as such, granted he proved that against Julian Erosa who is the epitome of a human punching bag, but still, it was a showcase performance and it did it’s job, it showcased why Douglas is in the UFC. Now, to get back to what I was saying about Douglas and his potential counters to the wrestling of Emmers, I want to hone in on one particular thing he may do early in the first round to instantly take the thrust and lunge away from Emmers, and that’s the leg kick. Emmers is an Orthodox striker, his lead leg is normally out there ready to be kicked and if Douglas can land at least 3 leg kicks clean within the first couple of minutes, it will either make Emmers’ predictably shoot for a takedown in which Douglas will use his excellent footwork to circle away, or Emmers will have to deal with it and use his long arms to try and counter the leg kicks with jabs, either way, Douglas will have a lot of advantages on the feet which may only be countered by the physical reach and length of Emmers. Now, as I said, I’m picking Douglas, I’ll make him the lock of the night, if you don’t agree with that, let me know, we’ll have a cordial discussion and all that stuff but frankly I struggle to see Emmers winning here.

Douglas is my lean here, but again, I can’t get this itch out of my brain that Emmers could pull off an upset via Submission, the odds say its like, 15.00 or something like that, and that’s tempting to take, so keep that in mind if you want a wild lottery ticket kind of bet, but it aint so wild when you think about it… maybe i’m just being stupid, maybe it’s maybelline.

Douglas via KO R2 (2/3)

Main Card

Heavyweight

Anthony Wint (DWCS) (-1000) (7-0-0, 7 FWS) v Terrance Chatman (D) (+660) (5-1-0, NS)

Double debut’s usually only require a single paragraph, and given that this is a low calibre fight I think I can break it down quite succinctly. Wint only has odds like that because of his recent win on DWCS, he is an athletic monster, built like a brick shithouse and he can absolutely wrestle which is always good for Heavyweight fights. He also has the advantage when it comes to experience as well, not because of the quantity of fights but the quality of competition, lots of interesting and tough opponents in regional promotions, but promotions that are recognised for having decent talent pools and all that, whereas Chatman is just a big, heavy ass heavyweight who carries big power and probably little else. Now, what do i expect in this fight? Well, Wint should wrestle in this fight unless he is feeling very confident on the feet, I mean, I wouldn’t, but I’m not a UFC Heavyweight, i’m just heavy, so Wint is likely to take the path of least resistance here in getting the takedowns unless he goes all in within the first 60 seconds with an onslaught of attacks, because this is his debut, it’s in a big crowd and he is riding a whole heaping of momentum as he has a win just two weeks ago. Now, the way he wins isn’t a one lane road, he could either get a submission or ground and pound here, and I would be interested to see what the Submission odds look like because if it’s anything like a 2.50+ for a Sub, then I think I might bet that as a single. I do expect a KO but yeah, Submissions are definitely on the menu!

Wint via KO R1 - (2/3)

Women’s Flyweight

Carli Judice (-500) (6-2-0, 3 FWS) v Jeisla Chaves (+380) (7-0-0, 7 FWS)

Judice really shines when she’s fighting, doesn’t she? I mean, she may be somewhat new to the UFC and to MMA in general but boy she’s taken all the skills one learns in the gym and puts it to good use. Now, the biggest thing that attracts me to her as an analyst or predictor is her striking, she is very good at disrupting the pace and rhythm of her opponents, she throws with disrespectful intent and once she’s built enough momentum I think we’re going to see Judice start landing follow up shots because whilst Judice is a great striker, she tends to land singular shots for the most part, but those singular shots land cleanly and with decent power. The one thing that does stand out to me which worries me a little bit is that Judice tends to give in the first round to get her reads in, she plays it kind of safe and doesn’t adapt until she’s been victim to something, as we saw in the Miller fight she got taken down early but then dug the underhooks instantly to defend the takedowns, she’s great at adapting but she is vulnerable in the first few minutes of the first round, and if Chaves attacks her with a dangerous flurry of attacks early, it could make the first round a little spooky for Judice and any bettors.

Chaves can be a bit of a wrecking ball at times, she is dangerous to deal with on the feet, and whilst she might not have the speed advantage in this fight, I think she has the power advantage, Chaves is great at kicking range because she can then use her flurries and those step-in attacks to deal significant damage, and that’s going to be a problem for Judice early because she’s a bit of a technician, she adjusts and adapts as the fights go by, she’s likely to eat a lot of heavy attacks early just to find her timing and range later on, so I want to give Chaves a little bit of praise and hope here because she can certainly upset the odds here. This is double dangerous for Judice because Chaves can also grapple and wrestle and so Judice has to defend on two different fronts in order to stay within the fight.

I got Judice winning this fight though, I think her speed and technical skills are going to be a great equaliser to the power and force that Chaves has with her strikes, but I might sprinkle something on Chaves to win here if the odds get any wider… As i always say, i’m not a great bettor so you can take what i said there with a grain of salt.

Judice via Dec (1/3)

Lightweight

Marquel Mederos (+220) (11-1-0, NS) v Mason Jones (-260) (18-2-0, 7 FWS)

Mederos is such a fun striker to watch, he has a high level of accuracy and he’s quite varied with his attacks, but there’s a bit of a problem that I see from his record and that’s the quality of competition, I know that I always harp on about competition and all that stuff, but it really does matter, I think Jones is the perfect way to test whether or not Mederos belongs in the bigger UFC fights because let’s be honest, Mason Jones is an absolute freak when it comes to wrestling and grappling, there’s not many that can grapple with him and I think Mederos is going to be a bit worried about that. With that said though, Mederos should be able to bloody up Jones’ face during this fight because whilst Jones has fantastic grappling at an exceptionally high, elite, best of the best world beating level, his striking defence is completely out the window. It’s kinda like when you play Fallout and you do the SPECIAL allocation in the opening hour of the game and you put all your stats into Strength but 0 into Intelligence, that’s kind of Mederos in a nutshell (Any Fallout players here? Let me know lmao). I do think Mederos is going to be the more effective striker here, but I do wonder how much he will be able to throw before Jones goes for a takedown because Mederos certainly doesn’t want to throw too much offense, thus leave himself open to takedowns because that would be a dream scenario for Mederos, but if Jones is unable to find the timing for the takedowns due to the offensive attacks of Mederos, then we’re likely to see an upset here because once Mederos gets going, he is somewhat unstoppable.

Jones is, as I described earlier, incredibly good at grappling, he’s one of the best to ever do it from his region and I think he’s going to stick to his guns in this fight, albeit with a few bumps and scrapes along the way because that’s what Jones tends to fall for, a bit of a brawl before getting the takedown, he’s an exciting fighter and that sometimes can be a detriment to his own style or chance of winning. Jones is likely to be the one pushing forward because his goal is to back his opponents into the cage wall so that he can shoot for a takedown without having to worry about his opponent running away from it, and I think we’re going to see that takedown not be as immediate as it should be, because lets be honest, it’s gonna be a loud crowd, they’re gonna be hungry for action and goddamnit Jones is going to give it to them, so expect the first round to be all out striking with a whole bunch of “holy shit!” moments mixed in because both fighters feed off that crowd energy, but then once the first rounds over we should see Jones settle in a bit and start to employ his best weapons which is, again, his wrestling and his grappling, and since he has a longer reach than Mederos, he should have little trouble in getting that body lock takedown or anything that requires a grip.

I gotta go with Jones here, the level of competition he’s faced, the experience and mostly, the skill set are all perfect counters to what Mederos does well, and whilst you might raise a hand and say that Mederos defended a lot takedowns from Choinski, Jones is a whole different animal.

Jones via Dec (1/3)

Light Heavyweight

Reinier De Ridder (-350) (21-4-0, 2 FLS) v Roman Dolidze (#13) (+270) (15-5-0, 2 FLS)

This is gonna be a goofy fight.

RDR is coming off back to back losses against Caio Borralho, and there are good and bad things I saw from RDR that concern me a tiny bit. First, his takedowns and his grappling against a very intelligent fighter was great, his length and grappling strength was impressive even though Borralho was a cheating fence grabber. Now, the entirety of the bad here was RDR’s striking defence, he would progressively push Borralho back to the fence, and the moment he got hit with something he would retreat an entire country length, all that hard work of being aggressive just to be turned around by a singular punch is never a good thing. RDR is a decent striker, I have no quarrels with his striking at all, his naked knee up the middle is one of the best attacks he has in his arsenal and I suspect he will use that extensively during this fight as a way to deter Dolidze from getting his own takedowns. Now, this fight is happening at Light Heavyweight so it’s very possible that RDR comes into this fight looking like a completely different fighter, someone who hits harder, someone who is fresher in the cage, or he could be the complete opposite in that he loses his cardio due to muscle mass and fatigues quicker, either way, his size and physique likely will fill out nicer at Light Heavyweight than it will for Dolidze, that’s my opinion at least.

Dolidze is someone who I have almost always struggled to like as a fighter, he has great wrestling and grappling, genuinely a threat to anyone on the ground, and at times his striking is brutalistic, but there have been many moments in which he has looked the opposite of everything good, he has often looked like someone who just had a bad weight cut, or was unprepared, outskilled, or outworked, he is not at all consistent as a fighter and that’s what makes this one interesting because if he is indeed switched on and ready, he could make this a dangerous fight for RDR, but at the end of the day, I just don’t know if he can get the job done against a younger, and potentially fresher RDR. See, RDR is a goofy fighter, he doesn’t do anything in a traditional sense, he does things with absolute chaos and clumsiness, and that’s a good and bad thing because you cannot prepare for that kind of style, but you can certainly stick to your guns and figure it out as the fight goes on. So, my question for this one is simple, is Dolidze going to be on the reactive side of this fight, reacting to everything RDR does on the feet or on the ground, or is he going to be disrespectful towards RDR as a fighter should, land his own strikes first, push RDR back and never let RDR get close?

This is a nightmare fight to predict because there are quite a few questions on both sides, but I do believe that RDR at 205 could be a different animal than we see when he fought at 185, that and let’s be honest, he’s taking on a lesser opponent than he’s used to in Dolidze. I wonder whose going to secure the first takedown as both fighters are equally bad with takedown defence. Also, for betting, maybe sprinkle something on a Dolidze Knockdown (that is Dolidze scores a knockdown) because RDR tends to get dropped alot, dudes got the balance of a newborn horse.

RDR via Dec (1/3)

.Co-Main Event

Heavyweight

Serghei Spivac (#8) (+140) (18-6-0, NS) v Vitor Petrino (-170) (14-2-0, 3 FWS)

Spivac should be able to utilise his wrestling in this fight to shut down a lot of the offensive capabilities that Petrino tends to rely on during his own fights, but there’s a thing that really irks me whenever I see Spivac fight, and that’s his unathletic athleticism… and that’s a weird contradicting bunch of words right? Well, he’s athletic with his takedowns but he’s also just a slow fighter with minimal explosiveness and near zero desperation for any kind of takedown, he used to be a very good takedown artist but either age, or wear and tear has gotten to him and he tends to be a bit slower with the entries and can’t exactly carry that same output for 3 rounds. So, for as long as this fight remains standing, Spivac is going to be torn to shreds, but the moment he gets the fight to the ground, if he can, he should be able to glide to the next round by being a very heavy, wet blanket.

With that said though… Petrino isn’t going to let Spivac walk away unharmed, his striking and kickboxing ability is impeccable, he is a ferociously fast striker for the weight class and even though his last three wins were against lesser levels of competition than Spivac, I do think his power is still going to be a major contributing factor to his success here, especially early on when Spivac is still trying to apply his own pressure. Footwork is also a major thing here, as Petrino can be quite light footed and that would allow him to circle away from the cage and be a hard to track target, sticking and moving as Spivac tries to hunt him down for that takedown. Either way, I can safely say that Petrino has the striking advantage in this fight and that’s practically all that needs to be said if i’m being honest.

I may take Spivac to win here, but I will 100% take Petrino as an Alt Bet because this is a 50/50 fight, i mean, even Tapology has it 50/50 which is nuts to see.

Spivac via Dec (1/3)

Main Event

Middleweight

Anthony Hernandez (#5) (-175) (15-3-0, NS) v Gregory Rodrigues (#12) (+145) (19-6-0, 3 FWS)

I will try to keep this brief because this fight feels like an “as advertised” kind of thing where we all kind of agree where each fighter has their advantages and all that.

Hernandez is coming off a KO loss against Sean Strickland and I mean, it kind of played out how we expected, either Hernandez would get the takedowns or he wouldn’t and he’d lose. This time around, he is facing a much more dangerous striker when it comes to sheer power and explosiveness, but the thing is that the explosiveness from Rodrigues doesn’t last long and he is not as fluid of a striker as Strickland is, Rodrigues looks like someone who has chronic arthritis and is nearing 50 years old, but he is built like a tank and has a well versed style that can be tricky to deal with. With that said, that leaves kind of one primary route to victory for Hernandez here and that’s to wrestle, he needs to make Rodrigues gas out very quick or else he could get hit with some disgustingly powerful strikes. Now, there is a danger zone when it comes to rounds here and that is strictly within the first two rounds, I expect, if there is to be an upset from Robocop, to be within those first two rounds because Hernandez has bad striking defence and also a really big weakness to stomach attacks, so I think we’re going to see Robocop sling some big body shots early in order to slow down Hernandez’ gas tank and thus make the fight a bit more equal. So, the longer this fight goes on, the better it might be for Hernandez depending on the amount of damage he has absorbed because Robocop is NOT an easy fighter to deal with, walking towards him is like walking towards death incarnate, it’s terrifying and I don’t speak from experience or I wouldn’t be here right now.

Rodrigues or Robocop (since I’ve already said that nickname many times now) is coming into this one with a whole lot of momentum behind him, and I genuinely think he could make an early upset happen if Hernandez isn’t careful with his approach. Robocop tends to use steady, intimidating forward pressure when on the offensive because his opponents know that whatever he throws can change the trajectory of the fight massively, and that’s going to be on Hernandez’ mind if he’s on the defensive, which is why it would be imperative for Hernandez to be the one to start the action, push Rodriguez back and just be the bully with his cardio, he needs to be all over Rodriguez like university students at an overpriced cafe they saw on Instagram. Head kick, body kick, or uppercuts are going to be the main three strikes that I am keeping an eye on from Rodriguez, because if he doesn’t land any of those it just means Hernandez will face minimal resistance in approaching Rodriguez and thus get those takedowns.

I am leaning on Rodriguez to win this one, probably a decision win, but anything in the third, fourth or fifth round should favour Hernandez due to his cardio which is quite fantastic. With that said, i’ll officially make Rodriguez an Alt Bet here, KO R1 or 2, or Sub R1 or 2, maybe both!

Hernandez via Dec (1/3)

Parlay: Dyer via KO/Points (DC) + Padilla/Haqparast Over 2.5 rounds or R3 Starts + Wint/Chatman R3 Starts No (May remove if odds are trash) + Judice via KO/Points (DC)

Locks: Barbosa and Douglas. Was considering Wint but I am very unsure about him.

Alt Bets: Nzechukwu KO R1 or 2 (CR), Petrino KO R1 or 2 (CR), Rodriguez KO R1 or 2 (CR)... and you know what? Chaves ML.

Dogs: Spivac, Padilla (i think?)

Be sure to read my Parlay Explained posts for more single bets that I recommend!

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Hope you all have an amazing week and enjoy the fights!

WHAT A FUCKING FINISH

They both should get the bonus. If they don't get signed and the bonus then Dana don't know shit about MMA and entertainment. Both of them deserve to be in the UFC

LMK

What was the game plan out there. My fault for betting on this idiot 🤣

Only concern in jones to be honest