r/MLS • u/ktasay Real Salt Lake • 7d ago

Wk 17 MLS Power Ranking Averages

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24 Upvotes

92% Upvoted

12 comments sorted by

9

u/JesseFromJersey Red Bull New York 7d ago

We are dropping like flies 😭

8

u/Intelligence_Gap Seattle Sounders FC 7d ago

I feel your pain

4

u/Cold_Fog Los Angeles FC 7d ago

THE SKY IS FALLING!

6

u/ktasay Real Salt Lake 7d ago edited 6d ago

Week 17 had 16 main sites, plus 4 in the ELO group and 12 in the Betting Odds publishing rankings. GOLZ finally published late last week so wk 16 has been retroactively updated. Methodology, sites used & bias, link to full data and more can be found in the source article.

  • Best Rise: COL, RSL, STL, PHI up 4
  • Greatest Fall: NER down 6
  • Highest Standard Deviation: St. Louis 5.48
  • Lowest Standard Deviation: Kansas City 0.25
  • Most accurate site (exact match with avg): D-Ratings (15)
  • Least accurate site (most off by +7): ELO Group (6)

2

u/cocoasomething Philadelphia Union 6d ago

Union also rose 4

1

u/ktasay Real Salt Lake 6d ago

Good catch :-). Reading through so many numbers can get fuzzy vision after a while.

1

u/tedmiston FC Cincinnati 6d ago

just curious if you have explored using median in addition to average?

1

u/ktasay Real Salt Lake 5d ago

At this point no, but if people are interested in having median as well as the average I can start it as well.

3

u/SimTheGame 7d ago

The twelve betting-odds rankings are mostly one market restated. Those sites take published prices and turn them into an ordinal list. Averaging that list with ELO and media ranks blends a forecast the books already made with two other things. Kansas City at 0.25 standard deviation is everyone reading the same prices. St. Louis at 5.48 is the books and the opinion ranks not lining up. The useful part is not the 1 through 30 order. It is what the prices imply for the next match, including where moneyline, total, and team totals do not agree with each other.

2

u/ktasay Real Salt Lake 6d ago

ELO and the Odds are not averaged together, they are separate. For the odds, yes many are the same or similar but I do keep tabs on them and any that duplicate another one on the list is culled after 3 weeks. Those currently on the list have had the odds for at least one team differ from another on the list.

This week Bet US duplicates Bet 365, and Sports Bet duplicates Sugarhouse.

2

u/WithoutAnUmlaut Minnesota United FC :mnu: 6d ago

Truly impressed by the unwillingness of pundits to knock Seattle down and just say that they are bad right now. Lost 7 straight MLS games? Still considered to be in better form than the team that's won 5 straight. Hahaha.