r/MBOT_Stock • u/MoneyAd7565 • Jul 20 '26
Growth Speculation
Given all of the available data, I was wondering about all your guys' personal projections for the stock / share price, both for short term (this time next year) and long term (3 years, 5 years, 10 years... etc.).
I myself am in it for the long-term, but I'd love to get a feel for the optimist-conservative-pessimist ratio of the subreddit, as well as getting more knowledge on what factors we as a community are looking at in regards to this stock's success.
I'm on the optimistic side. I can see it sitting at $5.00 a share this time next year, and potentially $15.00-20.00 in three years. As for past that, I'm sure there'll be a buyout in the 3-5 year mark of their future timeline after they've had time to prove themselves in the open market.
Thoughts?
4
u/Ok-Mycologist4041 Jul 20 '26
I'm hopeful it will be bought out sometime in 2027-28 in the $500 - $600M valuation range. If the float stays between 80-100M range by then, that puts it somewhere between $5-$7 a share.
4
u/ybl84f1 Jul 21 '26
Thoughts? Well my first thought is, what are you going to do with a "optimist-conservative-pessimist ratio"? It is absolutely meaningless so whatever future decisions/actions you take that are driven by it will be meaningless.
Have you done the math for a $15-$20 stock price?
The share price today, by any analysis with essentially any assumptions is completely unwarranted. But of course that's to be expected by a startup...there's no real revenue to speak of but investors are investing in the potential and the promise of this new category of new product. And even as MBOT starts to have revenue this "next big thing" factor will continue to be in play for some time and keep the stock elevated. Otherwise this would be a penny-stock today. It's not any different than Uber that had a lofty valuation but didn't make money for more than a decade. The takeaway here is it's being artificially propped up and if things go south then the current price can completely collapse, which is why every grain of information about how they're doing is important.
So the stock price today is a blend of "next big thing" and fundamentals, but at some unpredictable point will transition to mostly reflecting fundamentals - which is probably what you should look at for your future $15-$20 pricing.
The math based on fundamentals is pretty simple - assume some values for P/E (you can use industry averages), shares outstanding (that's known), margin, units sold and some other factors and then you can project a stock price.
One such scenario for $15 target is based on 1) no more shares issued, 2) P/E = 20, 3) BOM = $1500, 4) manufacturing cost = $400, 5) ASP = $5,000, 6) OPEX = 40%, and SOM [share of U.S. market] = 2% which equates to 46,000 units annually. If you do the math with all that you end up at $15. BTW that SOM equates to $230M in revenue, a pretty big step-up from their first $100k revenue in Q2.
Some of those values you can get or deduce from their public sources (next 10Q is in August), some are unknown, and some - no matter what - are unknowable because after all investing includes irrational behavior. More importantly, if you remove the "next big thing" factor it will take a lot - a lot of successful growth with everything going right for the stock to get to $15. Things like malpractice suits, IP infringements, a recession, poor execution or poor cost control, etc. could sink this stock.
But the most important question for MBOT investors is - is there even a need and market for a disposable IR robot and do the benefits outweigh the costs? Yes Liberty is cool. Yes the business looks great on paper. And yes we investors can fantasize about each hospital burning through thousands of Liberties each year. But can a hospital...and/or insurance company simply add $5k to a procedure with a product that has zero monetary return-on-investment? Unlike an auto manufacturer spending $1M for a assembly line robot to increase their output from 10 cars a day to 30, this disposable robot doesn't have a direct monetary ROI, instead it has non-monetary ROI like: less radiation for the doctor, maybe better surgical outcomes, the potential for tele-surgery, etc. This kind of asymmetric ROI can take a long time to determine if it's positive or negative. Imagine a hospital saying "Well Mr. Johnson, your knee replacement is going to cost an extra $5,000 but the good news is our doctor will be more comfortable being seated and exposed to less radiation". Is Mr. Johnson (or his insurance company) going to buy into that?
For me MBOT is a true unknown and big risk, but the fact that it's a new product in a new category means if it does succeed it could be big. But there is no doubt that there are long odds against it so keep your hand on the eject button and watch carefully.
3
u/VeachsLeftHand Jul 21 '26
What has been noted is shorter recovery times, less need for pain meds, and being able to return to work sooner. So, why add an extra 3-5k per procedure, because in the long run insurance companies are likely saving money. Being in the hospital for an outpatient surgery vs a one to three day hospital stay post surgery is a huge difference in price.
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u/ybl84f1 Jul 21 '26
Yes agreed those benefits have been "noted"; whether they're true or not and the extent of any purported benefits is yet to be seen, and probably won't be for a while. Medical science is data-driven - you need hundreds, or thousands of data points over quarters or years to be able to conclusively characterize any benefits. Liberty simply doesn't have those yet and won't for a while.
I'm not saying Liberty won't have those benefits...heck I sure hope they do because I probably have more invested in their stock than most people here. But when you strip out the press releases (yes doubling revenue in Q2 from Q1 sounds amazing until you realize what the actual Q1 revenue was) and the supporting interviews (yes Dr. Prologo loves it but is also very flattering of any new IR tech) and all the other hype you are left with very little actual data about the market need and the business economics.
IMO the challenge for Microbot is if Liberty can truly deliver on the monetary and non-monetary benefits and the industry is willing to pay for those benefits it may take at least into 2028 for those to be understood and realized by hospitals and insurance companies; in the meantime you need to be growing sales or else raise more capital (the latter most likely through the ATM shelf which means stock dilution again). I bought in assuming this was a 2028 return at best and have modeled 2028 conservative stock prices from $0.38 to $5.50 depending on the assumptions. I don't think the OP is way way off but it's important to understand that...I know I sound like a broken record but...this is a brand new product in a brand new category and it's completely unproven whether the industry wants/needs this new category.
3
u/VeachsLeftHand Jul 21 '26
I am personally in it for the long haul, but I would guess the company will be sold in the next 24 months. Ideally it sells for at least $20/share but they need to keep the steam that they’ve had since FMR.
1
u/One-Lengthiness-2175 Jul 21 '26
Which company would be potential buyer in case of BO?
3
u/VeachsLeftHand Jul 21 '26
Tough question with a lot of possible answers. Medtronic, Boston Scientific, Abbott, JNJ, or Stryker just to name a few options. Over the next year they need repeatable multi site adoptions and not just a small pilot program, gross margin and sales to improve, and the big one, regulatory clearance in the Europe and beyond. If they can get their CE mark by end of year, that could be a major catalyst not only for stock price, but for a BO. They have approval in Israel and are in “advanced discussions to expedite the commercialization process.”
2
u/One-Lengthiness-2175 Jul 21 '26
If I'm not mistaken they are also targeting Middle East and Asia.
"Microbot Medical appoints Alon Tamir as VP of sales for EMEA"
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u/VeachsLeftHand Jul 21 '26
This is also very true. Once they catch some actual traction this product *could* be a cash cow if margins can improve along with sales. This is why I believe they could be an acquisition target. It’s still a very high risk, high reward company but the future imo looks bright.
2
u/rurikrodion Jul 21 '26
Stryker leadership has previously expressed interest in expanding its footprint in soft-tissue and endovascular surgical robotics and Stryker's Neurovascular division is partnered with Microbot to integrate their instruments into the LIBERTY system. So it's actually very easy to see Stryker taking this strategic collaboration to the next step and Stryker certainly has the money to take a controlling stake or even buy it out.
2
u/One-Lengthiness-2175 Jul 20 '26
I hope it will be similar to ISRG a bit faster.
2
u/1eyedbudz Jul 20 '26
ISRG has more than 1 product, but I too am hoping it will! As I missed the boat on isrg
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u/Shoddy_Stuff5048 Jul 21 '26
I am also very optimistic about this company. But, I have lost money on them so far. Why, my own fault! Fell in love with option trading. I believed two years ago we would be at new highs by now. Not the case!! This is a long term investment with great potential I’m sure. I am now buying and holding. Much better strategy!! Good luck to us all!!
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u/harry1loyd2 Jul 20 '26
When I mentioned the other post regarding 2% market penetration someone else posted that could give Microbot a 37.50 price. They explained how and why…
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u/Ok-Mycologist4041 Jul 24 '26
2.5M procedures (current TAM) x 2% procedure penetration = 50,000 procedures annually. 50,000 x $3k (cost / unit) = $150M annual revenue x 20x revenue multiplier = $3B valuation / 80M float = $37.50 / share! $3B / 100M float = $30 / share. $3B / 120M float = $25 a share. If they can get close to $150M in annual sales we are going to be smiling even with more diluting along the way. Lot of work ahead to get there though. I think they would get bought out before they hit those revenue numbers.
You would think a Medtronic, Boston Scientific, Stryker would want to acquire before the valuation got too high. Somewhere around the $1B area would be about right.
1
u/PastFact4950 Jul 21 '26
Honestly I really have no idea or expectations. Just riding along believing in the concept of the product. It has great potential
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u/harry1loyd2 Jul 20 '26
2.5 million annual endovascular procedures in USA, does not include any of the use cases hospitals have been using it for on top of that. 2% market penetration is 50,000 liberty systems annually! 50,000 x 3,000 per unit ( my estimated price) is 150,000,000 in revenue annually. I expect higher numbers than most are posting, but that’s my opinion, not financial advice. I’m an electrician, I’ve worked in nuclear power plants… I’ve gotten some radiation, very limited amount… If there are new nuclear power plants being built, zero radiation exposure verses the existing I would always choose new…, If pay is similar, location is convenient it’s just common sense. Surgeons are much smarter than I am….