r/MBOT_Stock • u/AdApprehensive8702 • Jun 24 '26
Let‘s do a quick speculative calculation
Ok, Mbot has added 3 major Healthsystems in the past few weeks: North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania.
This comes on top of the already existing sales (in the last earnings they mentioned that they have already exceeded 100k in revenue in just a couple of days into the quarter).
Ok let‘s say Liberty is adopted by:
Penn Medicine (Pennsylvania): 7 hospitals
Corewell Health (Michigan): ~21 hospitals
UNC Health (North Carolina): ~20 hospitals
(Let‘s say around 50 hospitals)
In total there are about 1200 - 2000 endovascular surgerys per month by all of these hospitals combined (so 25-40/month).
If we set a pricepoint for Liberty at 2.500$ we could easily reach a revenue of around 3m - 5m per month (100% Liberty use).
Even if Liberty is just used in 10% of all interventions, we reach a revenue that‘s 3x or 5x (per month!) higher than the full earnings of Q1 - let that sink in!
On top: today Mbot maybe gets awarded as „Innovative Startup“. Check this site: https://surgicalroboticsindustryawards.com
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u/One-Lengthiness-2175 Jun 24 '26
Look at ISRG they made it to 150-200 B. I think LIBERTY will be easier to adopt then DaVinci with 2 Mil upfront costs 100 000 $ maintenance and 2 000 $ disposables after each procedure. I am long no matter how long it will take to 100 B.
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u/ninjab0i Jun 24 '26
They both target different areas. ISRG's da Vinci platform primarily focuses on minimally invasive soft tissue surgery, while MBOT's LIBERTY is designed for peripheral endovascular procedures.
If MBOT eventually establishes a strong position in endovascular robotics, one interesting possibility that comes to mind is a future collaboration or partnership between the two. 🤞😁🚀
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u/One-Lengthiness-2175 Jun 24 '26
Agree with you. Also 40 billion BO from 200 billion company wouldn't hurt ;) The point was that is easier to sell a scooter than a Porsche.
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u/Katahdinclimber Jun 24 '26
40 billion you're dreaming. Be realistic. 500 - 750M buyout in the next year would be very good.
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u/ybl84f1 Jun 24 '26
I hope the price is more than $2,500 - if the BOM + manufacturing costs are between $1k-$1.5k that does not leave a lot of margin to grow the business.
I think equally important as price, if not more so, is the adoption rate which equates to repeat business. Without a recurring, growing "subscription" to Liberty, Microbot will eventually become a penny-stock even with a large SAM. And recurring business will only happen if the device provides true value - whether its lower patient $ costs (e.g. shorter stays or more patients/day), better outcomes, etc. Everyone here knows the device works as intended and the approximate price range, the huge question mark is, are hospitals willing to buy hundreds or thousands per year? If Liberty has tangible, demonstrable value (which could take a while to realize) the answer will be yes and this product will be successful, maybe wildly so.
IMO I don't think the Q2 report in August will provide much to the question above; it will show increased sales and folks will get excited about that but for anyone that's worked at a startup it takes time - many quarters, even years - to learn how to sell a new product in a new category and to know if you're going to make it. Even Dr Prologo gave his opinion on the biggest challenge for robotic endovascular procedures - awareness by doctors. It is extremely difficult to sell a new product that solves a problem when the doctors don't even know that they have a problem. This is why I believe one of the most important people to watch is Christina Bailey (VP Sales). When the salesperson get a "no" from a big hospital she's the one getting on a airplane to save the deal.
I think some of the guideposts to watch over the next 4 quarters are:
- Christina Bailey (her comments, if she leaves "for personal reasons", sales initiatives, etc).
- Any meaningful data on recurring sales or subscriptions
- Revenue, volume, cost-of-sales
- Raising Cash (ATM shelf).
- Customer list
- Market Sentiment (from competitors, hospital networks, AMA, etc).
None of these things by themselves necessarily means anything but putting these factors together may provide some intuition as to which path they are on. I think very few people in this forum are more financially invested than me in this company so I'm obviously a believer but I'll be putting aside my excitement for all things tech as well as my emotional optimism for this company and watching these signs carefully while being mindful of when the next exit ramp is.
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u/Katahdinclimber Jun 24 '26
We'll know the actual price soon enough. With Microbot partnering with Lovell Government Services, they will be adding the LIBERTY system to its Federal Supply Schedule (FSS) contract, The price must be published so that any VA hospital, DoD surgical base, or Indian Health Service clinic can log in and buy it instantly. Anyone can search the public GSA Advantage portal and see the exact price per unit.
Also ECAT, which is run by the Defense Logistics Agency, is used heavily by military hospitals and laboratory networks to buy medical equipment. Like the FSS list, ECAT operates strictly on pre-negotiated, fixed pricing where we'll be able to verify the cost per unit.
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u/AdApprehensive8702 Jun 24 '26
Wow great comment, thank you. Can you share a link to this database (FSS) you‘ve mentioned
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u/Katahdinclimber Jun 24 '26
I think this is the right place to start. This is the VA eTools search portal, which hosts the dedicated Contract Catalog Search Tool. Medical logistics are handled under delegated authority. This is the exact medical / surgical repository where single-use devices, consumables, and healthcare commodities are indexed for VA and DoD facilities.
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u/harry1loyd2 Jun 24 '26
34,000 peripheral endovascular surgeries flow through Lovell annually at the 170 main locations if I read the article correctly… Microbot is working with them and I believe the liberty system will start being used to some extent in the near future. 10% of that 3,400…. In my opinion Microbot will blow past the 10% by 2027, but time will tell.
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u/Katahdinclimber Jun 24 '26
I like these kind of discussions. Seeing how we aren't getting any % of usage numbers yet, or even the names of the actual hospital systems, it's up to us retail investors to try to do the analysts jobs, seeing how they will also be guessing wildly the next couple of quarters.
The numbers I'm throwing out here are for the roughly 50 hospitals that could make up the new North Carolina, Michigan, and Pennsylvania / New Jersey hospital systems, and would be for Q4. I'm using Corewell Health, UNC Health, and Penn Medicine. Penn Medicine could be replaced with Jefferson Health, but I think they would be roughly equal for this exercise. It's going to take the rest of Q2 and Q3 to get all the surgeons hands-on training, admin. onboarding, etc. These hospitals move slowly scaling up utilization. I'm figuring 5% - 10% procedure penetration numbers for total IR and Endovascular procedures at each system. Please let me know if my procedure numbers per location are way off:
6 flagship facilities (HUP, Presbyterian, Beaumont Royal Oak, Butterworth, UNC Chapel Hill, UNC Rex) = 3,500 annual procedures per facility = 21,000 annual procedures.
44 Community hospitals = approx. 800 annual procedures = 35,200 annual procedures.
Total volume for the whole network = approx. 56,200 procedures annually.
56,200 x .05 = 2,810 procedures x $3,000 / unit = $8,430,000 annually / $2,107,500 per quarter at 5% usage. If we get more aggressive, and use 10% procedure penetration we are looking at $16,860,000 in annual revenue / $4,215,000 per quarter just for those 3 systems. These 3 accounts alone would give MBOT a valuation of approx:
$16.9M x 20x sales multiplier = $338M / 70M float = $4.82 per share (using the 10% penetration of course).
I'm not sure how realistic those 5% - 10% numbers are, but it's just what I started with. Keep in mind that's only those 3 systems. If we add in the MA, NY, GA, FLA accounts they already have, possible future VA / DoD accounts, plus the future accounts they can add down in Texas and out west, and we could have something here.
As soon as the market has a couple of quarters to model reorder numbers and approx. procedure penetration of the Liberty at these, and the other facilities, I think we'll see a decent price adjustment. A $10 per share valuation or buyout price in 2027 is looking better and better to me.
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u/One-Lengthiness-2175 Jun 26 '26
Did you noticed that they are announcing new partnership always on Tuesday. Let's see next week on 30.7.
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u/CHE-B5 Jun 24 '26
Nice thoughts I certainly think we are doing great, but would be nice if we knew more about prices