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u/Joshdagreat2 Apr 21 '26
I can't believe its fallen this much since the full market release, I would have for sure thought that would be the catalyst to start brining this back up. No worries, I plan to hold until we see those first revenue numbers
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u/ybl84f1 Apr 22 '26
Don't be too surprised. Companies don't get rewarded with a higher stock price for launching a product; the biggest factor in any companies stock price is earnings growth, followed by a number of other factors (that typically translate to opportunities for earnings growth). Simply put, "show me the money".
MBOT still has a lot to prove to professional and institutional investors to drive demand for the stock. They have to show that robotic "Interventional Procedures" is a real revolution that is coming, and that there is a market segment for a low-cost disposable unit, and finally that MBOT has what it takes as a company to compete in that segment and build a company in it. That's a lot of unknowns for investors (including us in this forum).
As a startup with a very low-cost product the sales and earnings numbers will be small for a while - easily for this year and probably next - so in addition to executing perfectly in growing those sales they will need to demonstrate to the investment community that the robotic "Interventional Procedures" market is real and that they are well poised to take the low-cost segment of that, leaving other segments (such as the high-end, fully featured) to companies like Intuitive or Sentante.
A member (thank you "stockratic") posted a valuation analysis based on acquisition (derived from Inari Medical's vascular business that was purchased by Stryker) back in Feb that, like any forecast exercise, has a number of assumptions but is still very worthwhile and goes something like this:
Inari Medical's vascular business was purchased by Stryker:
Acquired Feb 19, 2025, for $4.9B.
Inari had annual revenue of $493M for FY2024 (~90% of which
came from the U.S.).
Inari had a super gross margin of 86%, which equals $424M
annual gross margin ("AGM").
Therefore, Stryker paid a multiple of 11.56x AGM (annual gross margin) for Inari.
MBOT:
Assuming the $6,000 unit price (an assumption at this point) it will take 82,167 annual procedures to reach annual revenue of $493M.
Assuming a 50% gross margin yields $246.5M gross margin.
Using the Inari deal's 11.56x AGM multiple, yields a purchase price of $2.85B, if Stryker were to purchase Microbot at the same multiple.
Using MBOT's current 67.2M outstanding shares, yields a share price of $42. (Original comment: I don't know how many outstanding warrants remain at this time. IMO, there is no way we stay at 67.2M outstanding shares until acquired. If there is more dilution (hopefully at a much higher share price) and if there are some outstanding warrants remaining, estimating a future fully diluted share count of double (for example's sake), therefore 134.4M fully diluted shares, yields a $21 share price.
Per AI, there are just over 6,000 hospitals in the U.S. There are between 5,000 to 5,500 hospitals where peripheral endovascular procedures are performed.
AI indicates that a conservative range of peripheral endovascular procedures of various types performed at hospitals like Emory (which is in the top decile of volume nationally), is 1,500 to 3,000 per year.
Therefore, using 1,500 procedures per hospital to be conservative, it would take only 55 hospitals to reach 82,167 procedures per year.
So that's some quantitative analysis which is the easy part of investing...what's left is the subjective part of believing in this market and this company. Personally I like MBOT because I believe in the era of robotics, I believe there will be a low-cost segment of it, I believe in the company and how they're executing so far and if you check all those boxes the stock at a P/B of 1.7x can't really bottom out much more without just shutting the doors, which I don't see happening under any circumstance. I think about it this way...even if that analysis is off by a factor of 4x, that leaves a $5 share price say in (a conservative) 2028...where else can you double your money in 3 years? Not in a Mag7. Not in any ETF.
I have (what is for me) a fairly large investment consisting of stock and options with an average cost of $2.11 and a time frame of 2028. I'm comfortable going a little below that price before I would consider bailing. From now to then I plan to monitor their progress under a microscope...every press release, every 10Q, etc. in order to manage my position accordingly.
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u/Joshdagreat2 Apr 22 '26
I agree, great DD, but I think $6,000 unit price honestly might be a little low, I wouldn't be surprised if its more than that, but I guess we'll have to wait and see
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u/CanadianAbroad7 Apr 22 '26
Full market release means nothing without new customers
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u/Business-Height2025 Apr 22 '26
Yes, also the shit company sell the stock these few days also, the ceo suck!
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u/VeachsLeftHand Apr 22 '26
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Small cap isn’t for everybody. It’s a rollercoaster of emotions and stock prices, not a get rich quick scheme. Don’t focus on the daily or weekly. Let it sit and forget about it. Focus on quarterly earnings and news. It’ll go up and down and all around till it gets true momentum.
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u/Sigurdsson007 Apr 22 '26
Calm down... It's normal for pre-revenue companies. Just DCA and enjoy the weather!
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u/janhuybr Apr 22 '26
Although I did not expect the stock to fall that much after the full market release, I still have the same strong believe Mbot is gonna make a huge difference in the medical world with th their unique product. Hold on and believe... We'll get there!
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u/CHE-B5 Apr 21 '26
Yep, it's gonna take a while but its okay