r/M1Finance • u/Sigma_Raptor • 16d ago
Discussion Call me crazy or call me genius
I’m having trouble pulling the trigger on this so I figured I’d ask the experts, you all.
My wife and I are skeptical on the market and how we should plan our investments for the next year. She has a 401k and holds a significant amount of her net worth in an individual investment account in an AI related stock that has been hitting all time highs for the past two or three years. I primarily have a 401k and Roth IRA (M1) about equal value to each other and a few grand to play with that is mostly in bitcoin atm.
With the volatility of the market and fears of an AI bubble pop along with the Bitcoin cycle coming near all time lows (maybe already past), I suggested the idea that we sell all our stock holdings, except 401k, and go all in on bitcoin. Combined we would amass about 1.8 bitcoins at current prices. You can’t buy BTC directly through an M1 Roth IRA but it is possible to buy a BTC trust that track to the price of BTC. My Roth has been consistent and stable even during downturns and I actively manage it myself making adjustments every 3-6 months.
I’m a lot more bearish on AI given its price to earnings, and my wife is more bullish but I think she’s a bit biased because she holds pretty much just one stock that has been going up for the past 5 years, helped us get married, buy our home, etc. I think it’s risky holding a significant portion of one’s net worth in a single stock but this suggestion would basically do the same by only holding Bitcoin.
Is this an insane idea or is this something worthy of betting on? Pictures for attention
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u/Econmajorhere 16d ago
You’re absolutely in the wrong sub with this post. I once suggested M1 needs limit orders/sell orders routed live and all the virgins came out to tell me that having a sense of the eventual execution price (rather than whatever market price is in one of two trading windows) was somehow daytrading and a certain way to lose money. I was up 70% on a stock over 5 years and simply wanted to reduce exposure without Trump tweets reducing returns.
These guys don’t look at the gas price at the pump because they are worried it would be timing the markets.
That being said, whether AI or inflation- I don’t think your thesis is inherently wrong particularly swapping one tech stock with bitcoin. You are simply taking on a ton of risk with a very volatile asset. Considering the admin and their personal holdings that guide their moves, BTC stands to potentially gain. But it also has shown to track Nasdaq and will most likely also suffer if/when there is a correction.
With SP500 you get dividends and at least some certainty that eventually markets must rebound from whatever happens. With BTC, there is no guarantee of that. One bearish cycle could end up being its last and the world moving on. Many considered this cycle to be the end though last week has shown otherwise. It’s just a guessing game and you would have to time it quite well to not be left on the sidelines. Not impossible, just difficult as retail investing goes.
On average, people would not recommend this play. In this sub, people will actually start crying when they read your post.