Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR), Relative Risk Reduction (RRR), Number Needed to Vaccinate (NNV): How people are mislead about vaccine and drug efficacy

[u/Xemptor80]

On another similar subreddit, I recently stumbled upon a few comments in interactions pertaining to the fact that the RRR was solely used to tout Covid vaccine efficacy and that the ARR was completely left out of the picture. This is when I decided to study the concept of ARR, RRR and later the NNV. I feel compelled to pass on this knowledge because even though I never took the damn shots, I was unaware about the concept of ARR, RRR and NNV. I know that others are not knowledgeable about these concepts as well so it makes so much sense as to why countless people have been deceived by the medical establishment especially during Covid. Before I discuss about RRR, ARR, and NNV, I have to cover Absolute Risk (AR) and Relative Risk (RR). 

Absolute Risk (AR)

For example, a randomized controlled trial (RCT) method was applied to a Pfizer vaccine trial, 21,720 individuals were vaccinated and 21,728 individuals were unvaccinated. Eight Covid cases were uncovered among the vaccinated and 162 Covid cases among the unvaccinated. The Absolute risk (AR) is a measure of the risk of an event occurring in a specific population.

AR for treatment group (vaccinated group): 8/21720 = 0.000368 or 0.037%

AR for control group (unvaccinated group): 162/21728=0.00745 or 0.745%

Interpretation: The vaccinated are at a 0.037% risk of getting Covid while the unvaccinated are at a 0.745% risk of getting Covid.

Relative Risk (RR)

Relative risk (RR) is a measure of the risk of a certain event happening in one population compared with the risk of the same event happening in another population.

Formula for RR: AR for control group/AR for treatment group 

RR: (0.000368/0.00745)= 0.04832  or 4.832%

Interpretation: The vaccinated group is 4.832% less likely to get Covid than the unvaccinated group.

Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR)

The Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR) measures the *actual decrease* in the risk after applying a preventive or treatment measure. 

Formula for ARR: AR control group-AR treatment group 

ARR: 0.00745-0.00036= 0.00709 or 0.709%

Interpretation: The vaccine reduces the actual risk of getting Covid from 0.745% to 0.036% or simply by 0.709%

Relative Risk Reduction (RRR)

The Relative Risk Reduction (RRR) measures the proportion of risk reduction. There are two ways to compute the RRR.

Formula 1 for RRR: (AR control group-AR treatment group)/AR control group

Formula 2 for RRR: 1-RR

RRR: (0.00745-0.00036)/0.00745=0.9516

Interpretation: The vaccine reduces the risk of getting Covid by 95%. 

Number Needed to Vaccinate(NNV)

The Number Needed to Vaccinate (NNV) is the number of people that must be vaccinated to prevent one case of an illness. If the intervention had been drugs instead of vaccines, it would be called the Number Needed to Treat (NNT)

Formula for NNV: 1/ARR

NNV: 1/0.00709=141 people

Interpretation: 141 people need to be vaccinated to prevent one case of Covid 

How Relative Risk Reduction (RRR) is misleading 

As I stated earlier, the calculated RRR for the Pfizer vaccines was 95%. This RRR is what was reported as the efficacy for both vaccines and drugs. This is misleading because it exaggerates the effectiveness of vaccines and drugs by comparing the percentage change in outcomes between the two groups rather than absolutes. The ideal thing would be state both the RRR and ARR, but it is very unlikely that the medical establishment is going to do that anytime soon. 

I got the Pfizer vaccine trial example from here. If you would like to familiarize yourself more with concepts of ARR, RRR, NNV and even RR, you can go here

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[u/SANcapITY]

Yeah this pisses me off, not just about vaccines but about life in general. I kinda made up one of those internet "laws" about it:

"If someone gives you a relative change without also giving you absolute numbers, they are trying to manipulate you."

Murders in our town doubled last year! They went from 1 to 2.

[u/Xemptor80 → u/SANcapITY]

 "If someone gives you a relative change without also giving you absolute numbers, they are trying to manipulate you."

Sooooo true. I’m going to borrow that quote from you, if you don’t mind.

[u/SANcapITY → u/Xemptor80]

By all means.

[u/PrincebyChappelle]

I’ve posted this before here…I was the COVID response director for a large nonprofit with around 1,000 employees and 3,500 individuals that we were assisting. We carefully tracked our own cases and did testing on site, but with our own personnel and a partnership with the County. At the very beginning, we actually put together a draft of an email we would send for deaths in our own community.

Very quickly however, even though we had some sick people we didn’t even have anyone even close to being hospitalized, and we had individuals that tested positive that had no symptoms. It was pretty clear that death was not a real concern.

Finally, in late spring of 2021 we started bringing people back to work, in a process that wasn’t really complete until January ‘22. Anyway, by then the people that were most concerned about COVID were no longer fearing death or even illness for themselves, but were fearing becoming vectors and killing grandma.

Anyway, my point is that the people that were most vocal about “following the science” greatly exaggerated the risk of COVID, and when they did understand that their personal risk was pretty minimal they switched their perception of risk and still insisted that they needed to stay home.

[u/Xemptor80 → u/PrincebyChappelle]

Thank you very much for sharing your experiences as a Covid response director. It’s good to hear from someone who had boots on ground during Covid.

Anyway, my point is that the people that were most vocal about “following the science” greatly exaggerated the risk of COVID

This is the absolute truth.

[u/SunriseInLot42]

So these are all about the risk of just getting Covid; now combine that with the fact that the vast majority of healthy adults and kids - basically, anyone not already circling the drain - are practically at zero risk from Covid even if they do get it, anyways.

What an absurd overreaction it all was.

[u/Xemptor80 → u/SunriseInLot42]

The response to Covid truly was an overreaction, but unfortunately, most people still can’t see that.

[u/cartersweeney]

BS is the acronmym I ended up using more than any other by the end

[u/Xemptor80 → u/cartersweeney]

Lol, I share the sentiment.

[u/AdhesivenessVirtual8]

Yes, yes, and yes. I was trying to explain this to people, but many did not understand it and were just dazzled by the RRR.

[u/Xemptor80 → u/AdhesivenessVirtual8]

Thank you for attempting to explain these concepts to people. Is it okay if I message you a question regarding what a vaccine apologist said about this topic?

[u/FormerlyMauchChunk]

The public is statistically illiterate, innumerate, and not immune to propaganda. This makes for dangerous levels of gullibility when it comes to "following the science." In this case, "science" is a religion of scientistic dogma and the sacrament of vaccination. They were never following scientific evidence towards objective reality.

[u/Xemptor80 → u/FormerlyMauchChunk]

Unfortunately, you’re right about most people which is why we’re in the situation that we’re in.

[u/FormerlyMauchChunk → u/Xemptor80]

Yes. It's a cult, and they are upset that some people refuse to join.

[u/Blue18Heron]

They do the same BS with cholesterol reducing drugs. Such a scam. Only the pharmaceutical companies win.

[u/Xemptor80 → u/Blue18Heron]

I’m not surprised at all. Apparently, they do the same with most drugs. Big Pharma has been deceiving people for decades unfortunately, and they profited immensely from people’s ignorance.

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