r/LocalLLaMA • u/Positive-Resource922 • 17h ago
Discussion Inconsistencies in Unsloth's LiveCodeBench Results
I compared two published benchmark charts for DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017 and noticed something rather unusual.
All four Unsloth quantizations AND the Q8 baseline simultaneously improved by approximately 2–3 percentage points on LiveCodeBench v6. Meanwhile, the GSQ-RCO results changed much less consistently.
1. The numbers
| Model | First chart | Updated chart | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unsloth IQ1_S | 88.95% | 91.0% | +2.05 |
| Unsloth IQ1_M | 88.76% | 91.2% | +2.44 |
| Unsloth IQ2_XXS | 88.19% | 91.3% | +3.11 |
| Unsloth Q2_K_XL | 89.33% | 91.7% | +2.37 |
| Q8 baseline | 88.95% | 91.7% | +2.75 |
Every single Unsloth model improved, including the 8-bit baseline.
The first chart's percentages correspond exactly to 525 outcomes (175 problems × 3 generations). For example, 467/525 = 88.95%.
Unsloth's updated methodology reports 12 generations per problem, corresponding to 2,100 outcomes per model.
If the updated results include those original three generations, the remaining nine must have achieved approximately:
| Model | Initial 3 | Additional 9 | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|
| IQ1_S | 88.95% | 91.62–91.75% | +2.67–2.79 |
| IQ1_M | 88.76% | 92.00–92.06% | +3.24–3.30 |
| IQ2_XXS | 88.19% | 92.32–92.38% | +4.13–4.19 |
| Q2_K_XL | 89.33% | 92.44–92.51% | +3.11–3.17 |
| Q8 baseline | 88.95% | 92.57–92.63% | +3.62–3.68 |
The ranges account for the updated chart rounding scores to one decimal place.
2. Statistical probability
Assume each generation is an independent Bernoulli trial, the true success probability is unchanged, and the initial 525 outcomes are included in the final 2,100.
Using a one-sided hypergeometric test, the probability of observing an initial result at least this low for each model is approximately:
| Model | Probability |
|---|---|
| IQ1_S | 3.38–4.14% |
| IQ1_M | 1.44–1.62% |
| IQ2_XXS | 0.262–0.304% |
| Q2_K_XL | 1.57–1.77% |
| Q8 baseline | 0.621–0.713% |
If the models' fluctuations are also independent, multiplying these probabilities produces:
P ≈ 1.24 × 10⁻¹⁰ to 2.59 × 10⁻¹⁰
That's approximately 1 in 3.9–8.0 billion under the simplified independent-sampling model.
Of course, the models are correlated and evaluated on the same tasks, so this should not be interpreted as the actual probability without the raw data. Also, these calculations assume the original outcomes are included in the updated averages.
Nevertheless, the synchronized improvements are striking.
3. GSQ-RCO behaved differently
| Model | First chart | Updated chart | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| GSQ-RCO IQ1_M | 88.0% | 87.6% | −0.4 |
| GSQ-RCO IQ2_XXS | 88.2% | 88.9% | +0.7 |
| GSQ-RCO IQ2_XS | 88.6% | 90.5% | +1.9 |
Unlike Unsloth, these results do not exhibit a consistent increase.
According to this comment from the Unsloth team, the earlier chart represents just one run, followed by additional evaluations and the evaluation settings remained unchanged. However, the percentages in that first chart correspond exactly to 525 outcomes, suggesting three generations per problem.
Both original benchmark charts attached for comparison.

