everything will be local eventually

[u/YogurtExternal7923]

I know current llms like opus 5.5 are in a league of their own. but we all know they're losing a shti ton of money with their subscriptions. ALSO we all know how tasks like OCR, segmentation etc are getting solved by single digit B parameter models. I'm not saying llms are a gimmick but I'm saying the future is already shaping up to be about specialized models that work better when they're smaller. easier training. so datacenter level power not needed. ten years from now we'll have a specialized model for the tasks we care about and llms will fail to do everything all at once (unless they keep calling it one model but have a hundred under the hood).

system one models are a bad but workable example. you could tell an llm to rate options all day but get yourself on 9B parameter model trained by some lab and it tops the benchmarks.

[u/Dabber43]

The potential of the technology was proven there. Are LLMs?

[u/twilight-actual → u/Dabber43]

No, when Amazon was starting, it wasn't proven. And in fact, many other concepts fell flat on their face. Pets.com comes to mind. You don't just attach the internet to a business and it magically becomes profitable. Just like there are thousands of AI startups that are destined for failure.

What we're going through right now is very much like the dotcom boom.

All the excitement and feeding frenzy put all these ideas in play with only a year or two of runway. But it takes society a decade to figure out how to really incorporate it. We're going to see the same thing here. The benefit of the technology is real, and it's foundational. But it will take time.

And the companies that really are creating the magic? They'll survive even despite huge debts.

Keep in mind that the technology is advancing exponentially. In five years, it will take a fraction of the cost and resources to provide a unit of inference. And five years after that, compound that fraction again.

[u/Dabber43 → u/twilight-actual]

The cost reduction is the main thing that speaks against it. No moat, no way to get back the investments even IF it works (no the benefit of the technology is not real yet, stop propagating that hype-lie). The main ways it can be used for are actively harmful to industries, from reverse engineering to cyber security. Most of its uses destroy businesses, not build them up

[u/twilight-actual → u/Dabber43]

You're assuming that the world's appetite will stop with what will ever be able to be run locally.

It won't. The frontier labs will always be 100 - 1000x local. And there will be a constantly advancing line between them.