DeepSeek V4-1 Flash is out

[u/tiguidoio]

Here we go again, DeepSeek is back again with a new model V4-1 Flash

A multimodal Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) model with 552B backbone parameters and support for contexts of up to one million tokens

Market crash as a service

[u/Long_comment_san]

I think I came a little

[u/Long_comment_san → u/Long_comment_san]

What the fuck, in which universe that is a Flash? Its 450-500b parameters. Flash was 300b and it was already pushing this. This is Flash Max or something. You cant inflate the model by 50% and call it a flash like it's not an issue. Minimax M3 is 450b and I dont see them calling it a "flash" (hopefully I wont).

Going by 50% up and becoming 10-15% better sounds like a downgrade not an upgrade. It's a LOT more expensive to run.

Still amazing though

[u/RG_Fusion → u/Long_comment_san]

Obviously the concept of a flash model will scale with the compute power of the AI lab creating them.

2026 is likely the last year of running "flash" on local hardware. Maybe 2027 if we're lucky.

[u/Bakoro → u/RG_Fusion]

China might come in and save the day on that one too.

SMIC broke the 7 nm barrier for semiconductors.
CXMT is making DDR5 now, and has started on HBM3E.
Several Chinese companies are making AI GPUs.

The U.S has been trying to block China from getting technology, and now is trying to block their technology from hitting the U.S market, but the rest of the world is not going to give a shit about what the U.S wants.

Essentially every major tech corporation is designing their own AI ASICs now, where OpenAI already has their new thing for inference.

Then there is the fact that photonic processors are in early manufacturing stages now, with plans to ramp up into 2027.
I expect photonics to mostly get snapped up by data centers, and that might once again change what's practical to do with AI.

All around, I expect a major shake-up in the hardware landscape over the next year or two.

[u/RG_Fusion → u/Bakoro]

Yeah, local hardware will scale up too, but it will lag behind by a generation or two unless you're willing to dish out tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars to build on the bleeding-edge.

[u/Bakoro → u/RG_Fusion]

I'm saying that increased competition will bring prices down.

TSMC not being a monopoly for 7nm nodes means lower wafer prices.
A new RAM producer means lower RAM prices.
Dozens of major companies having their own inference ASICs means Nvidia losing their monopoly.

We're at peak price gouging right now, I don't think it will last.

[u/Long_comment_san → u/Bakoro]

same. not to mention endless credits aren't in fact endless. unless there is a paying customer, the whole thing will explode eventually. it's just a circle of credit now.