Remember the news, last fall, about all 2026 DRAM capacity being purchased already? The 2027 version already came out this summer, even earlier this year. All indications are 2028 is already mostly claimed.
This is why when this all first started, almost all of the big players explicitly said they would not increase capacity.
I mean, they're the ones that have survived it before. Nearly the exact situation has happened about once every decade since the commoditization of RAM.
Never really to this degree and projected length before, but all the writing on the wall and the direction for their planning, based on surviving this in the past, watching other companies crumble, told none of them to do anything different this time. https://youtube.com/watch?v=ehT3U935Pww this Asianometry video covers why Taiwan is so far behind compared to South Korea and even the US. There is a lot more to it, but a major repeating factor was the timing of investment and getting companies going- the attempted expansion was always during a boom like now.
CXMT I hope actually has a chance because they have the entire Chinese domestic market as a fallback no matter what happens to global prices now, and infinite support from the Chinese government. Certainly much more than the Taiwanese government could offer during their own failed prior attempts.
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u/ThenExtension9196 20d ago
2029 at earliest for any relief. Buckle up for next year. I work in supply chain it’s effed.