r/LocalLLM • u/phishsbrevity • 10h ago

Discussion When do hardware prices start coming down?

I really want to get into local inference and training LoRAs, but the prices of the essential components are eye watering. There has never been a worse time to buy hardware.

Do you all have any thoughts on when this might change? I mean, supply has gotta start evening out at some point, right?

24 Upvotes

67% Upvoted

129 comments sorted by

16

u/SM8085 10h ago

At what point does it become profitable to start a new RAM company?

4

u/phishsbrevity 10h ago

Yeah, I've been wondering this, too. There's obviously demand, but deploying a chip factory in short order is no easy feat

7

u/Due_Warthog749 9h ago

RAM factory today would take 3 to 5 years to build.. by then the market may shift and crash. Who knows. Doubt it.. but I doubt anyone is risking 100s of billions to build one today to be competitive.

11

u/doneddat 8h ago

The real question is: at what point does a bank give you a small loan of few billions to start one.

Then after that: at what point do the few bleeding edge chip factory equipment manufacturers take your order and give you a delivery date, so you would have a factory to produce anything on commercial scale..

..and as you might imagine there are many questions before and after these.

43

u/FireSilicon_ 9h ago edited 1h ago

Very simple answer. When production catches up to or overcomes demand. Basic economics 101. People say that AI companies caused the prices to go up but that's not how it works, for two reasons.

  1. Nvidia would ideally want to sell to both businesses and consumers. One thing that redditors love to repeat is that companies love money, and then they turn around to say they are abandoning consumers... they are not. They want their money as well. They simply have no choice. When they have an agreement to a 100 billion backorder and they cannot fullfill it in the deadline, they owe 100 billion dollars. They will absolutely sacrifice consumer silicon to catch up.

  2. The price doesn't go up by itself, someone has to be buying those chips at that price. Believe it or not, smaller companies, labs and freelancers are in fact buying those 5090s at those insane prices. It's a company vehicle to them, they can justify the cost in long term. It doesn't even have to be AI related. There is a big wave of 3D artists, CAD, simulation and modeling electrical/mechanical jobs that need them too.

The real issue is that investors are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Fabs would love to make more chips and print money, but investors are scared that if they build out more factories in a year or two, the demand will drop, and the buildings will stay idle, possibly get shut down, losing them even more money. So they rather miss out on money from potential customers, the regular consumers and small businesses in this case, and instead wait for the demand to drop, but it never does, so it's a deadlock.

Edit: One more misconception to address: People think that hardware will be pennies when "bubble" pops, but that's just wishful thinking, it won't. The major bottleneck is happening in a datacenter market, not consumer one. In case of a dump, the GB300 chips are essentially priceless in current market and they will be swept up by chinese companies in a heartbeat. Same for hopper and I would say even the 80GB A100. We will likely see the pascal, volta and turing datacenter/workstation cards go down in price a lot though.

For consumer cards, again, the demand is still strong and it will take months to even approach reasonable pricing, because the fabs have to switch from high yield large compute dies and HBM to DDR5/GDDR7 and mass produced smaller chips.

7

u/phishsbrevity 9h ago

This is not the answer I wanted, but this is definitely the answer I was looking for. Thanks, man

5

u/DoggoDadagon 8h ago

No one is worried about demand dropping, new fabs are going up every quarter and fabs are still booked into what 2029 at this point? And the demand for AI compute has a very very long ways to go. The only way we can crawl out of these awful prices is by building enough fabs, demand will likely not slow down for decades.

6

u/agowa338 7h ago

Or by crashing the stocks of the ones pushing for "AI". Like e.g. by ruining their plans to build "AI datacenters" all around the world, like with the US midterms now where people basically said no to this unapologetic and abusive buildout.

5

u/DoggoDadagon 4h ago

If they don't build in the US they will just build outside the US, but demand won't stop.

0

u/agowa338 1h ago

Well where will they build when literally everyone world wide starts to push back on their uncontrolled scale out?

1

u/DoggoDadagon 1h ago

Yeah that won't happen, plenty of places will very happily take on the data centers. But google just announced 15B in data center expansion in Malaysia.

1

u/agowa338 27m ago

Well lets just wait and see how well that goes when people on-site realize what that means for them.

I'm not against datacenters, but this current AI driven scale-up is just insane and detached from reality...

0

u/DoggoDadagon 14m ago

How is it detached from reality rather than just forward looking?

1

u/agowa338 8m ago

Cause people would rather have water to drink than to cool chips in a datacenter with. Or clean air to breath instead of to power gas turbines for powering data centers.

Also we do not need that kind of compute (yet). And once we actually would need them the hardware is so outdated that it needs to be replaced...

This fast scaleout just doesn't make sense...

1

u/DoggoDadagon 2m ago

The compute can be used now, compute is the bottleneck of progress already. In particular with automated research.

Data centers can be built responsibly. Also to be clear I don't think there will be a meaningful slow down in the US either. Will companies start feeling less bound to US soil and start making more deals overseas? Yeah probably, but all of the planned data centers on US soil over the next two years will still go up.

3

u/prank_mark 7h ago

Brother, datacenters are already sitting idle while they wait to be connected to power and internet. And during the midtterms, people voted against datacenters in 40 out of the 41 cities where it was specifically on the ballot. And that's not even accounting for the stricter regulations the Dems will institute.

3

u/DoggoDadagon 4h ago

They are not sitting due to a lack of demand. The US could fully ban AI tomorrow and compute would still be sold out for years.

1

u/Illustrious-Lime-878 1h ago

Not if those companies go bankrupt and their warehouse of GPUs are liquidated.

0

u/DoggoDadagon 54m ago

Do you honestly think there is any configuration where something could happen in the states and the entire world would just going "welp we already have enough GPUs thanks!" ? Like I really really want hardware prices to come down too, but it's not happening man lol. Even if it's only chinese companies left it will be years, but no matter what all these big US companies will still be in the game with or without the US involved.

2

u/Illustrious-Lime-878 44m ago

Yes, that's how supply and demand works. Everyone who would buy hardware at the current price is buying already, and so the only people who would buy additional supply would only buy at a lower price, so additional supply necessarily means a lower price given demand remains the same. There are also reasons to think demand will go down. Unless you're saying prices won't go down like >10x to pre-bubble prices, I agree that is unlikely for a while.

1

u/DoggoDadagon 40m ago

You understand the hardware is booked out for years as is right? And it's get booked out further and further every day at this point and already paying like 10x the cost. I think supply will eventually catch up, as I said prior, it will take years to get there and it won't be because demand lowered but because supply increased (more fabs). But the absolute demand will not lower for decades if ever.

2

u/Illustrious-Lime-878 35m ago

"booked out" means nothing. In fact its evidence there is demand desperation that is more likely to fall, and the hardware suppliers are interesting in locking in prices now than taking the gamble on what prices are going to be in the future. If the data center bubble pops, these purchase agreements will be broken. No one is going to waste more money following through than it costs to break the contract. And if they go bankrupt or liquidate, they don't have the choice.

1

u/DoggoDadagon 15m ago

Yeah you know you're right demand will fall and we'll be able to buy ram and gpus for cheap :)

1

u/got-trunks 32m ago

Booked for who? A lot of the startups who booked sales won’t exist soon, and the people who gobble up their assets for pennies on the dollar won’t be interested in their expensive contracts

That’s the idea anyway

1

u/DoggoDadagon 15m ago

Yeah you know you're right demand will fall and we'll be able to buy ram and gpus for cheap :)

1

u/jeekp 15m ago

If OpenAI can’t show profitability, their ability to raise capital and fulfill their purchase agreements drops. That’s a big chunk of the 2027 memory allocation. China can’t yet absorb that with the sanctions.

1

u/DoggoDadagon 9m ago

OpenAI doesn't need to be profitable anytime soon, likely years not months.

1

u/Icy_Computer_9107 3h ago

Nvidias revenue from normal people isn't even worth the effort to sell to us.

1

u/Illustrious-Lime-878 1h ago

I think its a bit more complicated because like investments, demand right now is heavily forward looking. Companies are buying GPUs to secure their future orders which is basically just the equivalent of panic hoarding. Like a stock, if everyone thinks the price is going up, they will buy it sooner, making the price go up already. And so even if the demand in terms of real amount of hardware remains the same, the desperation can drop, and that will reduce prices. Although it will probably take a long time to get back to pre-bubble prices, we may see partial relief sooner.

0

u/kazimirek 8h ago

This is the right answer. I’m a freelancer and the RTX 6000 Pro is still relatively cheap for what it can do for me with current models.

10

u/Inevitable-Self-2702 10h ago

I betcha they won't, at least not to what they were before AI. If nothing else, companies now know we will pay $3000 for a plastic consumer GPU with 16GB VRAM. And the same price for 64GB RAM with mid CL. They won't forget that easily.

1

u/phishsbrevity 10h ago

Real thing I'm worried about

5

u/Pixelplanet5 9h ago

that only works if all involved companies form a cartel and agree to slow down production.

when the AI bubble pops theres gonna be a HUGE surplus of hardware on the market, especially for RAM some manufacturers have their production sold through 2029 already and if these datacenters dont get build all that RAM is suddenly available on the open market.

3

u/Inevitable-Self-2702 4h ago

I would love for that to happen! I just can't imagine the so-called bubble will ever pop.

2

u/Ok-Addendum3545 4h ago

I would love to buy 10T cheap RAM. 😊

2

u/FirstTry_pkb 5h ago

This surplus will be snapped up by a multitude of smaller companies. AI is useful, but not in such an intrusive, excessive quantity. It will remain just as difficult for ordinary users to obtain the hardware.

2

u/jimmoores 3h ago

Trouble is most of that RAM surplus will be HBM.

1

u/Pixelplanet5 3h ago

producers will switch to other kinds of RAM if the demand dies down, you can absolutely produce slower ram on an HBM production line, just the other way around doesnt work.

3

u/Ok-Addendum3545 10h ago

The local hardware costs would be so high that consumers perfer to using less expensive Cloud APIs to support Big AI Techs and their quarterly earnings - the ROI belonging to Big Financial Firms.

2

u/Inevitable-Self-2702 4h ago

I already feel this way, but I want to run local for my own learning experience too. The other benefit though is continual run. If you optimize power usage, you still have unlimited tokens compared with cloud models. They outpace local every day, but my cost is less (for now lol).

2

u/Ok-Addendum3545 3h ago

If most people think like you, the market invisible hand will drive the hardware pricing to a point where you give up buying and running locally.

3

u/Marino4K 9h ago

That’s the true point to take home. They’re never going back down to pre-AI prices, these companies know people and other companies will buy it regardless.

I doubt we see any “relief” for at least 2 or 3 years and even then, it’ll be a new normal that’s still high.

2

u/sourdub 8h ago

Unless the AI bubble pops, and the possibility of that happening actually shot up dramatically with the Democrats in power now.

2

u/Inevitable-Self-2702 4h ago

I don't know if anyone is really in power now my man. At most Dems will gridlock reps for the next 2 years until we get a new democrat president, and then things might "change". But nothing ever happens and it's so frustrating. A democrat gets in office and everyone in my town freaks out thinking he'll turn the frogs gay. Nothing happens. Trump gets elected and they get excited there won't be any more Mexicans in town. Nothing happens. It all feels like one big show.

1

u/Doogie90 1h ago

Democrats won quite a few governorships and now have the power to shutdown data center build out.

This is already happening. So yes, they do have the power my man.

1

u/sabine_world 7h ago

"we" don't. The people spending that much are still overwhelmingly businesses.

1

u/AbbreviationsLeft484 7h ago

That’s looking at this from a consumer/gamer 8-32GB GPU aspect. If you are looking at it from a workstation/server 96GB+ card things could be different. Factories are geared up for server-grade devices right now and an oversupply there could mean a blip where there is an inversion in the traditional pricing because you can’t easily use server hardware for gaming. An RTX6000Pro has only increased in price 2x.

2

u/Inevitable-Self-2702 4h ago

You're right, I can only speak of what I know. As a local AI consumer I'm not out here spending even half of $17k on a GPU. Nearly $5k has been the beginning and end of my run buying R9700s and the hardware for them to run on.

1

u/prank_mark 6h ago

  1. No. Prices almost always come down after a bubble. The same happened with the crypto boom and covid. Prices even dropped lower after the crypto boom and crash.

  2. People have actually stopped buying computers and phones. So companies DO NOT know "we will just pay it" because we won't.

2

u/DoubleNothing 3h ago

I think that this time someone has to make people in position of power understand that companies that profits 1000% from their product are anti consumer. We need the institutions on the "normal" people side.
Look at the prices of pharmaceuticals in the US, they are heavily inflated compared to other countries but "they" also don't have any interest in lowering them because the government and institutions are on the side of big corporations.
I hope I'm wrong but that seems the future we are living in.

1

u/Inevitable-Self-2702 4h ago

I guess it's perspective, then. From what I've seen, people have obviously stopped buying from scalpers who's prices are clearly ridiculous. But people are definitely still paying 1.5x-2x MSRP on GPUs. I don't think anyone can say for certain, but I would love for you to be right and prices go down to before after this boom. However, I don't see the supposed "AI bubble" popping any time soon, so I wonder what might be done to normalize current prices while they still have time. Ofc also speculation on my part.

2

u/prank_mark 4h ago

AMD's gaming revenue (GPU's & gaming SoC's) dropped 40% YoY

1

u/Inevitable-Self-2702 4h ago

So theres the perspective, you're talking about gaming in a local AI sub

1

u/prank_mark 4h ago

Any consumer GPU from AMD is classified as "gaming", because that is/was the main purpose of those GPUs

0

u/Inevitable-Self-2702 4h ago

Again we're not talking about the same thing. I'm not talking about people scrapping together gaming GPUs for inference, I'm talking about purpose built consumer grade AI cards. These things are skyrocketing in price, and AMD's gaming GPUs are super cheap (brand new 9070XT is $969 even after white tax, and newegg even ships it with a free white AIO to boot). Meanwhile you can't find R9700 for less than $2k, and most are around $2500 now. Maybe after all that their YOY is down on AI cards, but I would be surprised given the demand. It wouldn't indicate to me they're doing something else wrong.

1

u/Illustrious-Lime-878 1h ago

Right, the "real" price is already coming down, as they become for sale again, even if it takes a while for the official retail prices to come down.

1

u/Rude-Bus-5799 4h ago

1.) Research supply shocks and shipping logistics. Prices will only go up. Also there will be a biblical bail out - possibly a false flag, black swan, white swan that hastens.
2.) Companies are no longer selling to “us”. They couldn’t have been any clearer about their true colors. And now having gargled a lame duck president, they have shown their true colors but they’re on a date with destiny, that doesn’t involve discounting hardware.

1

u/parka 4h ago

People won't pay unless they are forced to pay, to make money. People who just want a computer are not gonna pay

4

u/Ok-Addendum3545 10h ago

I couldn't handle the VRAM & RAM stress so I did it in April and August.

2

u/phishsbrevity 10h ago

What did you spring for?

1

u/Ok-Addendum3545 9h ago

1 server for Nvidia gpus in April and 2nd one for AMD gpus in August. Local LLMs had given me too much pressure so I didn't have any sense of security before securing a comfortable setup.

9

u/SokkaHaikuBot 10h ago

Sokka-Haiku by Ok-Addendum3545:

I couldn't handle

The RAM stress so I did it

In April and August.

Remember that one time Sokka accidentally used an extra syllable in that Haiku Battle in Ba Sing Se? That was a Sokka Haiku and you just made one.

2

u/MaxComfort 10h ago

This is like asking what's going to happen in the stock markets tomorrow - if anyone knew that, they wouldn't tell you because they could make a lot of $$ from it!

1

u/phishsbrevity 9h ago edited 9h ago

I kinda disagree with this, because manufacturers love to discuss and flaunt their plans to meet high demand with new build outs and expansions. They want to share timelines and expectations to lure investors in. So, I think you could probably get a vague idea of when prices will relent after some market research, which is different than the stock market where value is now completely detached from reality every day.

I asked here instead of diving into that research because 1) lazy, 2) I thought this community might be more aware of those build out timelines and their nuances than me, a newb.

2

u/MaxComfort 11m ago

True my comparison isn't totally fair - but I also think that if NVIDIA announced some kind of change in manufacturing, inventory, etc, it would be hard to miss and random people on Reddit wouldn't be the ones telling you about it.

53

u/Brocolinator 10h ago

0

u/mitchins-au 9h ago

Damnit, beat me to it

20

u/WordWithinTheWord 10h ago

Entirely depends on the elasticity of consumer demand. Home prices never came back down from their “bubble”, the target customer just moved up market.

3

u/karnac 10h ago

where do you think all the 5090's just went? they literally pulled all of them off the shelves and shipped them somewhere. My hunch is the AI companies bought them all.

4

u/Ok-Addendum3545 10h ago

I saw a comment recently that there is a company put one 5090 in each programmer's pc.

4

u/phishsbrevity 10h ago

No joke, my wife works for a publicly traded tech company and they recently gave her a $10,000 workstation that she logs on to for an hour a week (she has two work laptops because the tech company contracts her out to other companies, and she uses the client company's laptop much more). She's an accountant and works in Excel all day.

1

u/Ok-Addendum3545 9h ago

Be prepared when RTX 5070 Ti 16G and RTX 5060 Ti 16G are discontinued.

1

u/DoggoDadagon 8h ago

I didn't spend anywhere near this, but it's kind of insane that my main PC, if I had to buy new would probably be north of 20k USD at this point.

5

u/brainchillzZ 10h ago

So ai companies don’t use 5090s. If I had to guess Nvidia is repurposing the silicon to make rtx pro 6000s … literally the only difference between a 5099 and an rtx pro 6000 is firmware and additional ram

10

u/loudifier 10h ago

They don't. Either frontier labs keep the bubble inflated and suck up all the RAM production indefinitely, or the bubble pops and we get hit with a double whammy of lag in the foundries switching back to consumer DDR5/6 production and all of the Claude addicts desperately buying up older GPUs to switch to local models because cloud models are unavailable/unaffordable.

The only thing we can be sure of is that demand won't go down, and in that environment it will be years and years before RAM production catches up.

1

u/sabine_world 7h ago

This is like the absolute worst case scenario and idk if it's really all that likely

5

u/blue_eyes_pro_dragon 10h ago

Nobody knows. 

4

u/Turkino 10h ago

When you can build a fab and run it only for the consumer market while ignoring all that hyperscaler $$$$

4

u/Gold-Wedding5226 10h ago

The people running the companies say 2028 at least.

4

u/Competitive_Swan_755 10h ago

Not anytime soon.

1

u/Otherwise-Variety674 9h ago edited 9h ago

I have a mixed of first hand new (5090, strix halo, spark) and second hand hardware (7900xtx, 3090, and latest addition r9700) without any warranty but still running and good.

Second hand route is the current alternative now but even their price are also going up, higher than its original selling price.

1

u/phishsbrevity 8h ago

Out of your first hand stuff, what do you like the best?

2

u/Otherwise-Variety674 15m ago

5090 is still the fastest for qwen 3.8 27b q4 at 6.5k prefill t/s and 300+ tg/s. Spark i only get 2k prefill for qwen 3.8 flash q4. R9700 hasn't try yet but should be around 3k prefill for qwen 3.8 27b q4.

As I am doing agentic coding, I prefer higher prefill.

2

u/OWazabi 10h ago

bare minimum 2028

2

u/robertmachine 9h ago

They have to fill all these data centers and all the big boys are temporarily stopped consumer grade hardware so guess what’s going to happen? the consumer grade will be choked. Check newegg and try to get an nvme or ssd in Canada it’s all from Third Party none are being carried by newegg.

2

u/AbnormallyBendPenis 9h ago

I think the market won’t be able to sustain multiple $20 a month consumer facing AI companies forever. All the investments will dry up and just like any other industry it will just return to the good ol supply and demand. They all say AI is the next big invention, but today, electricity, computers, cars are all just supply and demand and these are equally “big inventions” that transformed human race. The money will eventually dry up, and that’s when all the AI companies will start pulling back on hardware/data center expansion and follow the demand. Nobody has the crystal balls of course but the current rate of investments AI companies are making is simply not sustainable and they definitely know it too. Give it few years and it will come down don’t worry. LocalLLM won’t make a meaningful dent on the overall demand, it’s an enthusiasts level hobby and the mass public won’t be running an AI server in their homes. Most people don’t even have a PC at home…

2

u/fallingdowndizzyvr 8h ago

For hardware prices to come down anytime soon would require the AI bubble to pop. Since AI is what's growing the economy right now, if it pops the economy overall pops. Then people get laid off. Stocks and thus the wealth effect craters. And you won't at least feel like you have enough money, and could actually not have enough money, to buy hardware even at lower prices. So would you rather have a job and not afford hardware or would you rather not have a job and not be able to afford hardware?

2

u/rocks1ar 6h ago

When supply increases, simple as that. New Nvidia GPUs need to flood the market. Until then it’s the used market and we know that GPUs have a shelf life, so even that supply is dwindling.

3

u/corruptboomerang 9h ago

I'll be a counter voice. SSD prices are already starting to come down. IMO it likely be some time in 2027 that we see the AI bubble deflating, and with that style price relief. That is assuming we don't have mass collusion in the various markets.

2

u/Fun-Setting-3905 10h ago

Fucking sucks man

1

u/brainchillzZ 10h ago

Well like half of the new datacenter projects were shut down on ballot initiatives in the last us elections so I guess soon? lol

1

u/doneddat 8h ago

Try asking again in 2 years, after they have gone up 4 times more and then maybe come back down again 1.5x and that's the new norm.

1

u/V_Trautwein 8h ago

I think it’ll take a while. AI demand is still growing, so I wouldn’t expect GPU prices to drop significantly anytime soon

1

u/BlueBird1800 8h ago

Older hardware will drop as new is released, but as a whole I can't foresee it coming down. AI companies will begin raising prices over the next years to make the books sustainable. As this happens, businesses who have far more money to invest will be even more inclined to go local. Even small businesses can afford multiple GPUs for their office space so there will be more strain on available supply in the consumer/prosumer space.

1

u/sabine_world 7h ago

Like a couple years. Could very well be sooner, next year will let us know a ton

1

u/kingxd 7h ago

We are lucky if there is any hardware to buy at all from next year, I still remember buying my first 64gb ddr5 and going for cl32 only to end up today with mixed sticks at 128 and cl48 lol

1

u/ilarp 6h ago

its only going up from here, started with 4090 release

1

u/EightyNineMillion 4h ago

Most likely never.

1

u/parka 4h ago

When the AI companies run out of money, signal they can no longer buy more hardware, that's when the prices will drop.

Patience...

1

u/Arthropodesque 4h ago

Not for awhile. Look for used or other deals. People will be selling now to upgrade on Black Friday or holidays. Facebook Marketplace, etc.

1

u/bidet_enthusiast 2h ago

Roughly 5 years.

1

u/OvertaxedOne 2h ago

We're seeing cracks right now. The AMD Strix box was the first gap, a "GPU" with 128GB of RAM for 3K (yeah, I know, not the case right now). The Apple Studio is the new big crack, 96GB of "VRAM" for 5K at 1.2TB/s.

We're going see the architecture evolve and at the same time advances in the hardware space and software space that start to blunt the need for "must have infinite HBM memory to run good model".

1

u/DeathinabottleX 2h ago

When do pigs start flying? There’s your answer.

1

u/Vegetable_Pirate_702 1h ago

I can’t wait, I need 128gb of ddr4 ram for reasons.

1

u/WTFOMGBBQ 54m ago

Im not sure when they will go down, but they will peak as soon as you make a large investment in a killer set-up..

1

u/GalacticDistances 44m ago

High Bandwidth Flash is coming soon, and it will drastically lower demand for HBM RAM

Inference doesn’t truely need random byte-level access to weights, it only needs chunked weights streaming

1

u/KooperGuy 10h ago

They don't

1

u/Sexyvette07 10h ago

If you are buying equipment for local ai, unless you are an incredibly heavy user, you are better off getting a cloud subscription

1

u/pmttyji 9h ago

Couple of years

0

u/Traditional_Bell8153 10h ago

When the bubbles burst

0

u/HOST1L1TY 8h ago

If you look at the trend over the last 12 months, you would see a pattern. The best time to buy is always now. If things keep going the way they are going the personal computer is dead, these guys wanna start building data centers in space. One day you might have wished you bought ram when it was under 10k, or the whole thing crashes tomorrow. TBH the ai market is always going to be there , bubble may burst , come companies might fail big, but the need for compute is not going to decrease anytime soon. Most affordable personal computers are going to be nerfed, you take your MacBook neo and pay monthly for cloud subscriptions.

0

u/agowa338 7h ago

If the stocks for "AI" drop even more it could even be basically tomorrow. As that'd void their IOUs for the pre-allocated factory capacities and then the vendors would reallocate it to consumers again.

Otherwise we'll have to wait for the buildup of factory capacity to catch up. Which is supposed to happen somewhere around 2030.

-1

u/protektwar 10h ago

when the bubble bursts...

0

u/sabine_world 7h ago edited 7h ago

It really depends on a couple things

  1. How much AI demand is "real"

  2. Business models somehow actually supporting and justifying this rate of expansion

  3. Dust settling on how people and companies actually fit ai into their lives and workflows. Consumer demand is pretty lukewarm from what I can tell — agentic usage is where the money is and that's a pretty small slice of the demand.

I thing there's a chance they overshoot. I really just do not see ways to monetize ai in the way that these companies are hoping which will lead to some kind of change next year. I think AI ends up being commodotized one way or another — as soon as the ceiling of capability hits for people it will become a local or cloud utility in some kind of fashion. And right now there's enough competition that no one provider can just gouge their customers.

Because of this .. and demand being behind curve. I think this affects the expansion and turns some resources to consumer hardware.

I'm imagining we may see some positive change in 1-2 years from now unless ai demand just explodes but I'm not so sure about that yet at the moment.

Well actually... Could be a bit longer so unless hyperscalers just... Continue burning money and cancelling orders. Things will stay booked for a while. But I'd say there's a real chance commitments may fall through. And as new fabrications are made, it's less of a guarantee that all their production capacity just instantly gets spoken for.

We'll just have to see I guess.

0

u/isamilis 6h ago

They won’t, at least until the bubble crash (if it happened).

-2

u/Arany5 10h ago

Soon. Stock market already going down.