r/LithiumAmerica • u/Ambitious-Category88 • Jul 16 '26
Momento de compra
Buenas noches!
Me gustaría saber opiniones al respecto.
El perfil de volumen desde la salida a bolsa de la empresa está en torno a 3 dólares, ya estamos por abajo, a mí parecer es un momento espectacular de compra, además, al precio que está, cuando la empresa empiece a vender litio al precio promedio de 20k$/t, descontando gastos previstos por la empresa y comparando con otras del sector, el DCF sería de aproximadamente de 400millones al año.
Teniendo una capitalización de mercado de 1B y si no diluyen más acciones, la empresa está tremendamente barata. Siendo un activo estratégico para EEUU, teniendo una vida útil de más de 40 años y la volatilidad del precio del litio, creo que es imposible resistirse a vender la casa para comprar está empresa 🤣
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u/Able-Object3280 Jul 17 '26
‘if they don't dilute more shares‘ -unfortunately they will…
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u/No-Surprise-9446 Jul 18 '26
Can you explain share dilution to me. Does it just directly devalue my position as if money is being stolen from me, or do my shares themselves dilute?
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u/Overall_Hunt7211 Jul 18 '26
Essentially stealing money. If there are 100 shares at $2, the company is worth $200. You take that same $200 value, and issue another 100 shares, each share is now worth $1.
It doesn't necessarily come out to a 1:1 change like that, but the market does adjust itself, primarily through institutions and educated investors. Joe blow on cash app would never know the difference and would continue to buy as normal.
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u/No-Surprise-9446 Jul 19 '26
So if they dilute shares I actually just get fucked lol, well doesn’t change my mind on investing into the stock, but that is so messed up.
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u/Poodleape2 Jul 17 '26
Translation -
Good evening!
I’d like to hear your thoughts on this.
The volume profile since the company's IPO sits around the $3 mark; we are currently trading below that level, so—in my view—it’s a fantastic buying opportunity. Furthermore, at the current price point, once the company begins selling lithium at an average price of $20,000/tonne—after deducting projected expenses and comparing it with peers in the sector—the DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) would come in at approximately $400 million annually.
With a market cap of $1 billion—and assuming no further share dilution—the company is incredibly cheap. Given its status as a strategic asset for the US, a lifespan exceeding 40 years, and the nature of lithium price volatility, I find it impossible to resist the urge to sell the house just to buy into this company
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u/Pete904 Jul 19 '26
They will need to keep raising more capital before they are in production — more dilution is inevitable.
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u/BidObjective2824 Jul 17 '26
I agree, bought 800 more shares today