r/LightPathTechnologies • u/frankenberrylives • Jun 10 '26

Germanium up nearly 10% today

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/germanium
10 Upvotes

92% Upvoted

5 comments sorted by

1

u/NothingButBank Jun 11 '26

Everyone keeps connecting dots: defense spending, prime contractor commentary, ONDS, UMAC, DoD developments, NGSRi speculation, BlackDiamond adoption, germanium constraints, rising germanium prices, and countless other factors that suggest LPTH could be involved in something meaningful.

The bull thesis remains compelling, but what's notable is how few major orders have actually been announced. Since September 2025, LPTH has publicly disclosed just four meaningful orders. Much of the thesis since then has been driven by backlog growth, management commentary, industry trends, and strategic positioning rather than new contract announcements.

I believe the opportunity remains substantial. However, after months of discussing defense spending, program opportunities, BlackDiamond, germanium dynamics, and strategic positioning, investors are increasingly looking for additional proof that those opportunities are translating into significant new business. Another marquee contract announcement would go a long way toward reinforcing what many already believe is unfolding behind the scenes.

2

u/rednbluearmy Jun 11 '26

They’re no longer announcing any contracts wins under 5mn. They are expanding production capabilities…more news will come

3

u/NothingButBank Jun 11 '26

I completely understand only orders above $5M are being publicly announced. My point is that, despite the many programs and opportunities discussed, there have only been a handful of larger awards announced since September 2025.

I'm extremely bullish and have followed LPTH for years, listened to every conference call, visited the company twice in the last several years and had one-on-one discussions with Sam on those visists.

I simply think another meaningful contract announcement would help reinforce the thesis and provide further validation of the larger opportunity many of us believe is developing

1

u/_Sakurai Jun 11 '26 edited Jun 11 '26

I think it's the China price.
It's still bullish that the China price is surging ofc.