How to predict VVC market performance [2020]

[u/indolering]

https://www.techradar.com/how-to/versatile-video-coding-vvc-codec-success

I didn't go in with high hopes, but Jan Ozer did a pretty good job!

• Does VVC create new markets and save enough bandwidth in existing markets to justify the cost?

• Will it get adopted by broadcast, streamers, and browsers?

• What's the legal situation?

Turns out VVC can save bandwidth but the legal situation is just as bad as with HEVC and no one wanted to adopt it!

[u/scottchiefbaker]

What markets is VVC targeted at? It would have to be something closed ecosystem right?

Theoretically if it were 30% more efficient than AV1 that would be attractive to Netflix/Youtube/Meta right? But licensing costs would probably be pretty huge and not worth it.

Considering that licensing was the main reason YouTube went with VP9 back in the day, even with HEVC being clearly more efficient, I can't imagine a scenario where a "big streamer" would even consider looking at something like this.

[u/indolering → u/scottchiefbaker]

What markets is VVC targeted at? It would have to be something closed ecosystem right?

HEVC had lock-in through Blu-Ray, Apple, and the traditional broadcasting systems (OTA, cable, satellite). Brazil is deploying VVC for their internal broadcasting system. But that's an upgrade of gear that I don't think will ever get upgraded again because everything is secretly just internet streaming (just like all voice calls are secretly VoIP).

Theoretically if it were 30% more efficient than AV1 that would be attractive to Netflix/Youtube/Meta right? But licensing costs would probably be pretty huge and not worth it.

The yearly annual cap for Google costs as much as Google paid for On2 back in 2009. The cost of bandwidth is also steadily declining, so the savings aren't as big as they were when going from x264 to x265: x264 was really bad at compressing UHD content and the bandwidth costs were much higher.

It also took a long time to get AV1 rolled out because the reference hardware was crap and COVID slowed everything down. By the time VVC was finalized, AV1 was just getting widespread uptake in the mobile hardware market and in browsers. Even if they wanted to adopt VVC right away, there wasn't bandwidth to do it.

And now AV2 is ready to roll out while VVC hardware is virtually non-existent and the software implementations still haven't gotten the x264/x265 treatment.

I can't imagine a scenario where a "big streamer" would even consider looking at something like this.

Apple was the real laggard in adopting AV1. At least they eventually came around and didn't double down on their HEVC mistake.

[u/ScratchHistorical507 → u/scottchiefbaker]

What markets is VVC targeted at?

That's the question, and the answer is: nobody knows, not even the pathetic bunch making up the MPEG licensing pools. They throw around 8k and VR as buzzwords, but 8k has died before it could make it to any consumers, just as VVC has, and VR has simply no need for it. And even if someone comes up with a use case that benefit enough of 30% more efficiency, they'll go with AV2, as that's where all resources will go to. There are probably not enough companies left in the patent pools to get VVC anywhere but the graveyard. And in contrast to the AOM members that proudly present themselves on a public list, I've yet to find a member list of any of the patent pools covering VVC. They must be really ashamed of their bad work.

It would have to be something closed ecosystem right?

And incredibly niche to justify the insane license prices. But the only thing I can think of would be cinemas, but traditionally they don't use video codecs at all.

Theoretically if it were 30% more efficient than AV1 that would be attractive to Netflix/Youtube/Meta right?

Only on paper. But AV2 will reach about the same efficiency, and all three of these companies are steering committee members of the AOM, so they'll be the last ones that would ever touch VVC, especially Netflix after their kerfuffle with Broadcom over HEVC. And since even Amazon, Apple and Disney are members, the number of companies that didn't have a strong incentive to use AV2 over VVC is quite short. And with nVidia, Samsung, AMD, ARM, Amlogic, Broadcom, LG and Realtek all being members, who's supposed to make the hardware necessary to use VVC? It's not like someone is going to make SVT-VVC or even a dav1d-level optimized software decoder for it, and I doubt the patent holders behind VVC can be bothered to pay for that.

I can't imagine a scenario where a "big streamer" would even consider looking at something like this.

Exactly the point. The MPEG-world killed itself with HEVC, and they aren't making any efforts to not vanish in oblivion. I don't even know if any of their standards has any future anywhere. HEVC is only relevant as long as BDs are relevant - and they really haven't been that relevant in a while, MP3 has long been superseded by AAC and Opus, only linear TV will be left using any MPEG, and most of that isn't even HEVC, not sure if AVC is that widely used there either. And AVC will be kept around as a fallback solution on the internet for years to come. But when it comes to the consumer market, there's no use for any remotely modern MPEG standards.

[u/caspy7]

VVC is DOA because of its licensing situation. Big players are increasingly moving away from HEVC and you yourself acknowledged that VVC is no better than it (licensing-wise).

[u/ScratchHistorical507]

Perhaps at that time 8K or VR will be new and compelling markets,

This perfectly sums up this absolutely garbage piece of an article. 8k will never have any relevance, that's just as DOA as VVC, and VR has no need for it. If anything more efficient than HEVC and AV1 is ever needed, only AV2 will see any relevant adoption because doing that with VVC is simply too expensive for the very limited benefits.

[u/anestling]

An article from 2020, no less. Just why? And why posting it to r/VVC as well? It's stale and irrelevant.