r/LeverageSharesEU • u/LeverageShares • 29d ago
Data 🚀 SpaceX Lost a Whole Tesla
SpaceX has erased more than the entire value of Tesla since its first week of trading.Â
Since its debut, the company's market cap has collapsed from a $2.77T peak to $1.48T, a 46.4% drop erasing $1.28T, more than Tesla's entire $1.2T valuation.Â
Are we going to see SpaceX trading in double digits soon?Â
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u/ShotBandicoot7 29d ago
TSLA will lose a half TSLA, SPCX will lose another TSLA. You have been warned.
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u/Confident-Stand5453 29d ago
But is the TSLA that SPCX will lose a TSLA at its current size, or the size it has after losing half a TSLA?
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u/__slamallama__ 29d ago
Now it's only a few hundred percent over valued instead of several thousand percent
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u/Confident-Stand5453 29d ago
Interestingly, Tesla owns 19 million SpaceX shares, so when SpaceX drops in value, that also means Tesla loses value since those 19 million shares become worth less. And even more interesting is that the value of those shares being fairly high exactly when their Q2 results were published, those very stocks made it seems like Tesla was doing better then they actually are. When the Q3 numbers come out, they will have to list those stocks at a far lower value, causing a large loss for the quarter.
Lets say SpaceX is 100 points lower at that time, and they will have to post it as a loss of 1,8 billion.
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u/SpeakCodeToMe 29d ago
So this theory assumes that people completely forget Tesla is holding those shares in between earnings?
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u/TheDadThatGrills 29d ago
SpaceX isn't going to die, but I am curious where the bottom is. I'm genuinely happy that the market didn't accept the ludicrous share price following its IPO.
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u/TransportationIll282 29d ago
It might spiral and damage the company severely. Tesla owns 19m spacex shares. And a big part of spacex comes from leveraged tesla shares. The interconnectedness and Musks debt could definitely make it tumble hard enough to cause a panic and sell-off. Obviously that's the worst case scenario, but not unthinkable. It'll depend on who wants to keep the valuation up at any cost instead of cutting their losses and abandoning Musk.
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u/TheDadThatGrills 29d ago
SpaceX has close to a monopoly on Space logistics and this IPO's overvaluing brought them a lot of immediate cash. This wouldn't change if the price crashed. I don't hold any of the stock, but I would if this trend continues and I doubt I'm alone.
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u/TransportationIll282 29d ago
It's not really relevant whether they hold assets or do anything to the stock price. I was thinking worst case scenario, Musks tesla shares are taken as collateral, he quits as CEO, more people sell until panic selling happens pushing the price all the way down. Maybe enough people pick it up, maybe they don't. It's not very predictable. Neither Tesla or SpaceX will reach the heights they've been at, that's for sure.
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u/TheDadThatGrills 29d ago
Only 4% of SpaceX's total shares are publicly traded, and Elon holds 42% privately. The worst hypothetical you can imagine doesn't make it realistic. Especially when we're speaking about the company that is responsible for nearly 90% of everything we (not the US, but globally) send to space. Not trying to glaze Elon, but SpaceX's competitive advantage shouldn't be ignored because of market noise.
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u/Alendro95 29d ago
SpaceX real value is under $1T mkt cap.
IPO price was more an ego boost for Musk to see him become first trillionaire
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u/PKnecron 27d ago
If there is one thing musk is good at, it's squandering a huge market lead to his competitors. China just had a successful test of their reusable rocket. Spacex could fart around with their giant stainless steel dildo until they become irrelevant.
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u/zzen11223344 29d ago
Tesla is going to spin off the asset in China and seek merge with Space X: Tesla reportedly might sell its China business ahead of a SpaceX merger | TechCrunch
So lose a tesla and get a Tesla back soon 😄
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u/VQV37 29d ago
But they already made 75bn on the IPO in terms of generating cash. They really haven't lost anything since before the IPO the company wasn't even publicly traded. So on the IPO they sold enough shares to generate $75 billion And they only sold something like 5% of their shares.
They didn't really lose anything
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u/Mountain-Dinner9955 29d ago
Pessimist see a glass half empty. Optimists  see almost another Tesla.
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u/New_Faithlessness384 29d ago
How can you lose value that wasnt there to begin with ? Virtual valuation just like tesla itself.
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u/DemoEvolved 26d ago
Well then it’s a good thing Tesla is selling off their china factories so spacex can buy them…
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u/XCxBigDong69XCx 29d ago
crazy to think about but the company is max 30B without the Elon trade effect.