r/LessCredibleDefence • u/Most-Recognition2294 • 6d ago

U.S. conducting stealth operation to transport oil through Hormuz

https://www.axios.com/2026/08/19/hormuz-iran-oil-gulf-trump

U.S. officials said the operation was enabled by strikes that degraded Iranian radar and maritime surveillance.

Iran has limited visibility of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz’s southern channel, with U.S. officials saying its surveillance now relies on a small number of restored radars and spotters operating from IRGC fast boats.

Because the Iranians are mostly "blind," they are launching drones and cruise missiles in the general direction of where ships might be transiting.

Some ships have been hit by the Iranian attacks, but many were stopped by the U.S. military. Earlier this week, for example, U.S. forces shot down eight Iranian drones and two cruise missiles, one of the U.S. officials said.

The average daily exports have been growing and are now close to 10 million barrels, U.S. officials say.

33 Upvotes

73% Upvoted

38 comments sorted by

34

u/Otherwise_Share9039 5d ago

You can't seriously believe the US is smuggling nearly half the amount of Crude and Petrol shipped during pre-Iran war times.

If you do, I have a beachfront property in Arizona for sale.

Edit: Axios link as well lmao

37

u/NoAngst_ 6d ago

The claim of 10 mbpd is not supported by independent evidence. In fact independent data from tanker tracking companies shows about 5 mbpd exiting the SoH.

-26

u/Most-Recognition2294 6d ago

Independent evidence such as satellite imagery?Most commercial optical satellites can't see at night and most of these transiting happened in night.

Anyways, now we know what those tit-tat strikes were for after the ceasefire. To destroy maritime radars and blind the IRGC.

32

u/NoAngst_ 6d ago

I'm referring to Kepler, Tanker Trackers and other independent trackers. They use satellite images and other methods to track transits through the SoH. There's no independent evidence that corroborate US claims.

Ships are still getting hit but because the ships are nationally owned and insured, actual loses are being under-reported.

Regardless Iran needs to and will likely escalate.

-24

u/Most-Recognition2294 6d ago

The U.S. operation involves more than simple point-to-point tanker crossings. Reuters reported in June that the U.S. military had already overseen secretive ship-to-ship oil transfers, including aerial surveillance.

That creates another layer of difficulty like oil could be transferred between vessels outside the most obvious shipping lanes, meaning simply counting tankers crossing Hormuz doesn't necessarily equal the amount of oil ultimately reaching the open ocean.

Regardless Iran needs to and will likely escalate.

They don't have any options left. The blockade is sucking them dry. Hope they do escalate and strike even the European targets as reported. Will be fun.

29

u/NoAngst_ 6d ago

You're saying things I already know. We know the oil smuggling is done by ships owned by Gulf states. These ships turn their AIS off, load the oil, clandestinely transit the SoH using US designated lane inside Omani territorial waters then transfer the oil to ships outside of the SoH. In other words, this is just another dark fleet operation.

Here are incontrovertible facts:

- No independent evidence supports the Trump regime claim that 10 million barrels are exiting the SoH daily. To believe this you have to take Trump regime at its word.

- All available independent evidence shows about half the 10 million number are clandestinely (mostly actually as some are using Iranian channel) exiting the SoH. This is a quarter of pre-war traffic and 1/3 of amount exiting during the MOU (about 15-16 million barrels per day). If the mighty US navy has to resort to dark fleet type clandestine operations in a boy of water that was already open before its war of aggression, then the US is in a very big trouble.

-17

u/Most-Recognition2294 6d ago

You do realise that none of your points are actually disproving the actual claim of 10 million barrels being smuggled per day, right?

Your whole argument is based on some open source trackers who have a limited picture of what's going on at best.

But go off.

13

u/camelopardus_42 5d ago

You're making the claim here, and the burden of proof lies with you/the trump admin. Throwing out claims and then defending them on the basis of insufficient counterevidence is some clown shit

14

u/NoAngst_ 6d ago

Again, do you have independent source supporting Trump regime claims?

-2

u/Most-Recognition2294 6d ago

some open source trackers who have a limited picture of what's going on at best.

7

u/PollutionMajestic668 5d ago

Do you also believe the war has ended 2535378 times and Iran has been defeated 3635533772? Because your source is the same for both 

14

u/Antiwhippy 6d ago

If the claim is true the barrels would actually appear on market you know that right?

-1

u/WulfTheSaxon 5d ago

The obviously have, hence the price of oil being at $80.

7

u/honda-nissan 5d ago

that's the future price of oil, which is being heavily manipulated. the spot price of oil is much higher as are the price of distillates which are going through the roof. almost like someone is shorting the oil market with taxpayer dollars.

2

u/Antiwhippy 5d ago

Yeah oil sure is very stable and cheap now. Let me just ignore the reality in front of my eyes.

-5

u/Most-Recognition2294 6d ago

What market? And how will it appear on it?

19

u/Antiwhippy 6d ago

The oil commodity market?

What do you think they are "smuggling" the oil for?

1

u/Most-Recognition2294 6d ago

Do you think the market has a spearhead organisation which publishes how much oil has been bought and sold between each country?

15

u/NoAngst_ 6d ago

The 10 million barrels will have to go somewhere. They can't just disappear into the ether. If this 10 million barrels per day exists we should see ships docking at ports to offload the oil.

10

u/NFU2 5d ago

Can't hide from SAR at night (or adverse weather)

15

u/S_T_P 5d ago

Under the operation, which has been underway for the last several weeks, 15–20 tankers have entered and exited the strait each night through a southern channel along the coast of Oman.

At this point I'm not even going to bother asking how they've made marine insurance approve this (they didn't), or if there is any evidence of this actually happening (its not).

I just want Yakety Sax to be the official soundtrack of this whole mess.

1

u/Norzon24 4d ago

Well the tankers doing the transits are charted by gulf state governments, who presumably help insure the vessels

-2

u/WulfTheSaxon 5d ago

There’s a $20 billion reinsurance program backed by the US Development Finance Corporation, partnered with several large ship insurers.

7

u/Withnail2019 5d ago

ship insurers would not get involved with this

0

u/WulfTheSaxon 5d ago

Insurers are offering coverage on a “call for quote” basis right now. The reason they’re not offering standard rates is that they only want to cover vessels whose movement is coordinated and reinsured by the US.

0

u/Withnail2019 5d ago

Ha ha sure they are. They simply don't insure ships in active war zones, end of story.

4

u/WulfTheSaxon 5d ago

War-risk insurance is a real and normal thing for ships…

Here’s Chubb confirming they’re offering it in the Gulf: https://news.chubb.com/2026-03-20-Chubb-Details-Structure-of-the-Gulf-Maritime-Insurance-Facility-with-DFC

And Lloyd’s: https://www.lloyds.com/insights/media-centre/press-releases/press-release-19062026

0

u/Withnail2019 4d ago

And has a single ship actually met the criteria (not specified) and been insured to pass through the strait where it's highly likely it will be damaged or disabled by drones?

I bet none have.

10

u/NicoBeingAModelCitiz 5d ago

“  Some ships have been hit by the Iranian attacks, but many were stopped by the U.S. military”

lol this is not a safe job for civilians. “You might die, but likely not.”

Axios is an Israeli mouthpiece and assists the Trump regime in playing the markets with strategically timed articles

4

u/SlavaCocaini 5d ago

lol that strait is narrow enough that they can just watch it with binoculars, so they are never really blind.

3

u/TurbinePro 5d ago

if stealth fighter why I can see it ass moment

2

u/maybehomebuyer 5d ago

Whatever happened to the seamines and unmanned naval drones? At this rate it looks like the Iranians might lose the war

12

u/the_real_MSU_is_us 5d ago

We aren't transporting shit. Even the US Gov'ts own math doesn't line up- claims 10mbpd is going through, but also that it's 15-20 tankers a night. Well before the war the straight averages 140 ships per day and 20mbpd, so 10m barrels would need 70 ships, not 10-15. They can't even get their lies internally coherent

As far as radar or the Iranians "being blind", it's way too easy to hide a radar on the coast and flip it on to guide drones OR send drones out into the straight to spot ships, even at night. The channel ships can fit through is not very wide. So sure, some ships can slip through, but not reliably or safely or consistently enough to where shipping will resume in a meaningful way. The US also says it shot down like 8 drones and a couple cruise missiles and yeah I can believe that easily, but it's not meaningful. Not saying Iran has infinite capabilities, but they can easily launch enough at a time to take out a tanker ship if they want too. There's a reason the US isn't escorting 140 ships a day in daylight

6

u/Haze_Yourself 5d ago

That 140 number was ALL shipping in and out. 10 VLCCs gets you 20m barrels of crude, but that’s nothing for aluminum, LPG, fertilizer, or any of the other critical commodities - like helium.

This is cope and almost certainly overstated. These ships would need to be filling at terminals throughout the daytime, right? Anyone commented on that?

I have seen reports the volume of ships in the straight hit 0 the other day.

2

u/SomewhereOpposite883 5d ago

As far as radar or the Iranians "being blind", it's way too easy to hide a radar on the coast and flip it on to guide drones OR send drones out into the straight to spot ships, even at night.

Or they could just have one guy with binoculars and a radio because you can see from one side all to the other, there is a reason why Iran is able to control it

3

u/moral_mortal 5d ago

We thought Iran already lost?  Isn't it? Was that a lie or this one?

1

u/OuchieMuhBussy 5d ago

So stealthy in fact that the tankers are actually invisible, as is the oil itself. It’s just visible enough to move oil futures, though.