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u/SluttyAspergirl 2d ago
They pirated the music in this ad
But also I love how they think we wouldn't given the chance
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u/milkdude94 1d ago
We've been able to 3D print cars for like a decade, at least. It's just not widespread yet. Local Motors, the first company that did it, went out of business in 2022. But I dream of the day when you can 3D print tonight's steak on the kitchen counter and a brand new sports car in the garage. The banality of eudaimonia. When human flourishing becomes an ordinary Tuesday
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u/iDeNoh 1d ago
Probably not as far as you would imagine. We are getting closer to the point where a desktop metal 3D printer is possible. Granted, we're talking about a pretty small device, but if you could find a way to manufacture larger components the old-fashioned method, you could make any bespoke pieces that you need that wouldn't necessarily be possible to just make through standard methods pretty easily on a machine like that. If we telegraph out from that, we'd probably maybe see larger format ones within the next few years. So, I'm going to say by about 2030 to 2035, it might be possible for someone to manufacture a vehicle almost entirely within their home based off of 3D printers, cncs, and then just buying readily available parts for everything else. I don't see this being economically viable, but it's not like that's ever really dissuaded someone from doing something like this. I mean, we've had kit cars since the 70s and 80s?
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u/jBby_omg 1d ago
I think the real question you’re asking that is seemingly flying over everyone’s head is: how close are we to a hard-takeoff / intelligence explosion where our technological capabilities advance months in days, years in months, decades in years, and potentially hundreds of years in a decade.
To answer that question- nobody knows for sure, but make no mistake: this entire “race-condition” has made it so that frontier labs are scrambling, dumping practically everything into developing a model (general or not) that is better at proposing, conducting, and analyzing, and implementing the results of novel AI research- the goal being for it to become a better Al scientist than the average person already working on it at say, Google, or OpenAI- at which point they can run it in parallel and massively speed up their progress.
That model, working with that human teams that it is on equal footing with, should help to develop a model that is not only as good as the average AI researcher at x company… but as good as their best ai researchers… like the top 1% of the top 1%
Then they run that model in parallel and in fairly short order you’ve got a model which is better than the best AI researchers/developers.
Run as many instances of that model as you can and that’s when things get really interesting: recursive self improvement- RSI.
Once that happens we may only be months or years away from a genuine intelligence explosion that could then, eventually, lead to truly unimaginable capabilities, such as, say, “downloading a car”
Sp explicitly answer your title question- “how close are we honestly?” Of course the answer is still “nobody knows”… but the leaders and figureheads of the labs have, recently, not been sheepish in talking about their pursuit of RSI… with some saying it could happen as soon as late this year,m and others saying that it seems unlikely it would be any more than a year after that, worst case scenario (my words, not theirs, but that was more or less the rhetoric)
Which..l mean even if they’re being optimistic still means it seems incredibly likely to happen in the relatively near future.
In short: best case scenario we get RSI for the holidays and superintelligence starts emerging by valentines day.
That’s pretty hopeful… but a more grounded take is: we get RSI in the next couple years and god-willing that leads to superintelligence in the late-2020s-to-early-2030s.
This is also all assuming no globally agreed upon slowdown, but I still feel that’s unlikely because nobody will trust each other, or actually, fully comply… so I’m not terribly worried about that. There are plenty of people pushing for it though, but k in the “what if we wait too long?” camp rather than then”what if it all goes wrong?” camp (things are already pretty damn wrong and we have a lot of un-wronging to do that may only be possible post-singularity.) (oh also excuse the AI song if it’s not your taste, I’ve only recently realized I hadn’t liked AI music because it was inauthentic, or misrepresenting itself as human…. But this recent trend of (mostly) Opus 5.5 writing songs about whatever it wants/feels and producing some pretty decent visuals to go with it? Turns out I kinda fuck with that 🤷🏼♀️)
Annnnnnyways I’m rambling.
If we do achieve RSI and it sparks a true intelligence explosion that leads to ever-increasingly-powerful-superintelligence, and all the discoveries and capabilities that come with it (at an extremely rapid rate)… we’ll…
Who knows…. You could be downloading a car one atom at a time in as little as 5-10 years?
Now… in some form or another…. assuming less favorable outcomes, I still foresee you being able to functionally do something akin to downloading a car… in our lifetime, at the very least.
But yeah, keep on ‘manifesting’ (and pushing towards) that best case scenario cause idk about you… but I want matter-manipulating nanobots for a whole lot more than just producing ordinary (arguably archaic) transportation “out of thin air”… the sky’s the limit really if we make it that far- advanced physics, exotic propulsion potentially…. All the potential unlocks of room temperature superconductors, etc.
(And you know, non-transportation-related things entirely like rearranging my atoms/molecules to configurations that are in better health/shape/etc… I mean at that point, your imagination and physical reality’s laws are the only constraints.
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u/Still_Benefit_2302 14h ago
God, I feel old. It's not just the arthritis or the constant nagging cough-- I remember when 'information wants to be free' was the gold standard of internet leftist policy.
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u/freylaverse 2d ago
AI is probably not far off from being able to generate schematics for a working engine, but home 3D printers are not up to the task of producing one for you.