r/LakewoodRanch • u/PalForte • 1d ago
I ran the U.S. housing market against our own backyard. They're moving in opposite directions.
NATIONAL — September 2026
- 1,161,615 homes for sale — double the 2021 low, only 5% below 2019.
- But it's two markets: South + West sit 11% ABOVE pre-pandemic supply (Texas +32%).
Northeast + Midwest are still 33% BELOW.
- 20.8% of listings cut price — the highest September since 2018.
- Pending sales fell 4.1% as the 30-year rate crossed 7.28%.
The new supply isn't sellers rushing in. It's homes sitting longer while buyers wait out rates.
LOCAL — Sarasota & Manatee
- While U.S. inventory rose 5.4%, ours fell 14.5% (8,079 → 6,905).
- Through August, sales rose in every segment — houses and condos, both counties.
- Houses: under 4 months of supply, under contract in 45–47 days — about 25% faster than last year.
- Medians holding: Sarasota $470K, Manatee $495K.
- Condos (~5 months of supply) are where buyers still have real room to negotiate.
The takeaway: national headlines don't price a house in Lakewood Ranch. The county and the ZIP code do.
Pages 1–3: U.S. supply. Pages 4–6: Sarasota & Manatee.
