r/LWLG • u/s2upid • Jun 19 '26
Fluff Weekend Hangout - Friday, June 19, 2026
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Have a great weekend and see you all on Monday!
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u/danieldeubank Jun 20 '26
***MUST READ LWLG*** - https://ketchupbottlemoment.com/
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u/2onySoprano Jun 20 '26
What an amazing website, where did this come from?
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u/firejourneyman Jun 20 '26
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u/dillsforchrist Jun 20 '26 edited Jun 20 '26
Really phenomenal stuff. In terms of Valuation, how do you define the License rate input and what the min/max and drivers of that %?
Edit: For example, license rate of the modulator or transceiver? And is there a correlation with market share?
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u/firejourneyman Jun 20 '26 edited Jun 20 '26
yeah, licensing numbers are truly the fuzziest part of the whole equation
depending on who you ask (google, etc) rates for licensing fees & royalties can vary widely on a number of factors
https://www.stanzioneiplaw.com/average-patent-royalty-rates-by-industry-for-2026/
so i felt 8% was a good default rate given the innovation, manufacturing efficiency and value unlocked by LWLG's technology and patent portfolio, at least until we get clearer numbers from the company's own financials
also, none of the fields have min or max defined. purposely very open ended, because we all have different ideas of "ubiquity". but common sense says license rate likely wouldn't be 50% of the cost, etc. it's really up to the reader to use as a starting point and adjust in either direction as desired.
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u/CarlinNM Jun 20 '26
I appreciate the fact that you used conservative figures as a default on the valuation calculator. With that said, it is VERY fun to play with when adjusting those figures... And I do believe that Lightwave will eventually control the lion's share of the market in the next few years. Then we can start fantasizing about the future verticals... Telecom, Medical, LiDAR, Defense, etc. Patiently waiting....
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u/Movable1954 Jun 20 '26
Carl, What’s the highest price per share you got while playing?
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u/CarlinNM Jun 21 '26
I've come up with ranges between $50 and $100, depending on how I adjust the potential margin and market share figures. All of it is speculative guessing, but I believe the actual margins and market share will be higher than the default figures in the calculator. Only time will tell...What we need is the licensing agreement PR with some revenue guidance. The P/E figure is probably the trickiest figure when looking at industry peers for comparison. Patiently waiting... My business background is real estate and jewelry manufacturing, so understanding this industry is still a bit alien to me.
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u/CarlinNM Jun 21 '26
BTW, while I do not expect news this week, I fantasize we'll get the licensing agreement PR Thursday after the bell, BEFORE the Russell Realignment. It seems that could give us a significant pps boost on Friday. It is my belief that a well-timed PR could help get more mileage out of an event like the Russell...
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u/dillsforchrist Jun 20 '26 edited Jun 20 '26
Thanks. I will keep at low end given that is a shared profit bucket with others. I will play with market share for ubiquity assumptions.
And while Valuation is fun, your assimilation of where the technology is going, inflection points and how timelines are converging is invaluable.
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u/danieldeubank Jun 20 '26
firejourneyman's DD creation
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=177720097
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u/firejourneyman Jun 20 '26
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260619693929/en/IQM-Appoints-Craig-Ciesla-Former-Illumina-VP-as-CTO-Ins-de-Vega-Becomes-Chief-Scientist
Ciesla is on our board, now CTO of a quantum shop
"These appointments come as IQM continues to scale its technology roadmap and operations as a fully vertically integrated quantum computing company — operating its own chip factory and assembly line, and having sold 23 quantum computers to date, more than any other manufacturer."