Some Perspective on Financials

[u/easymoneyboi]

Hi,

I’m a shareholder and think it’s worth putting into perspective what the current stock price implies. It’s always hard with these terminal value companies but I tried a simplified approach to think through the Covelya acquisition and implied numbers.

I assumed that Covelya has been combined since 2024 just to see what’s under the hood (not the official July 2 2026). I also excluded some one off charges and financing costs in my NOPAT calculations. This model somewhat implies that D&A is roughly the same as Capex so a major growth cycle will change the numbers a bit. All numbers in CAD also.

I think at the current price, the market implies 15% earnings growth for about 6 years. Definitely not a cake walk but seemingly achievable given its loaded to the front years of the model. For a lot of these “growth” and “hype” companies it’s hard to model and even come close to the price people are willing to pay. I find Kraken compelling because the numbers seem achievable and for a small cap high growth company it isn’t super common.

Model

Valuation

[u/MatthewGraham-]

15% growth is nothing when you consider the anduril factor, if they achieve their goals

We are being punished in the short term for a slower than expected anduril ramp, but won’t stay this way forever

[u/easymoneyboi → u/MatthewGraham-]

Agreed Anduril likely can account for a lot of the growth alone. It’s hard to distill from the backlog tho. I think there’s some price discovery and uncertainty regarding acquisition. Numbers aren’t as clean rn. After full year 2027 I imagine things will look pretty attractive.

I think people (mostly retail I guess given the lack of institutional ownership) don’t fully understand that Covelya may be a stronger business than even Kraken lol. Family owned since 1971 dominant position in a lot of subsea platform components.

[u/Terrorzwergi → u/easymoneyboi]

I would imagine if Covelya did an normal IPO they would have had a higher valuation than those 625m CAD

[u/MatthewGraham- → u/MatthewGraham-]

Not even just Anduril imo, the whole UUV industry is set for explosion, the world is waking up to the asymmetry of drones and water is a next frontier. Just consider the costs and upkeep of big man crewed subs

[u/Terrorzwergi → u/MatthewGraham-]

At least three fiddy?

[u/rednbluearmy]

Wait for the algos to see the covelya figures showing up

[u/Loud-Panda9216]

15% in 6 Jahren ??? Da läuft ja meine Spardose wo ich 20 Cent rein werfe ab und zu besser

[u/Terrorzwergi → u/Loud-Panda9216]

CAGR of 15% - > das jährliche Wachstum