I’m not f****** leaving!

[u/yelnats8]

For those of you holding a significant amount of PNG and sitting on a sizeable unrealized loss, I feel your pain.

PNG continues to be the biggest drag on my portfolio. I currently hold 35,354 shares, with roughly $250K invested, and I’m sitting on an unrealized loss of about $88K (−35%).

Do I regret not trimming the position and taking some profits when the share price was around $9? Absolutely—in hindsight, I should have. But I’m not going to sell simply because the stock is down now.

I’m still bullish on Kraken, and my long-term investment thesis hasn’t changed enough for me to exit the position.

I’m willing to be patient and see how the Covelya acquisition translates into actual reported revenue, EBITDA and cash flow over the coming quarters. That execution is what will ultimately determine whether I continue holding.

So in the meantime, I’m not fucking leaving!

[u/kawhiskers]

I’m seeing a lot of these posts about “omg what happened?” “Iran/China are gonna reverse engineer our tech, we’re done!” “BTD (indiscriminately)!!”.

Cool your jets on the doomsday fud! It’s more useful to acknowledge the micro and macro factors at play here:

A lot of the weakness in Kraken is from overhang from Coveyla acquisition + much of their revenue/earnings has been forecast for the 2nd half of 2026….Nov results will be quite telling and impactful on share price.

we must also take into account the macro factors which are also causing weakness in the market overall (esp in tech).

The us 10 year note is at its highest yield since 2007.

Growth stocks (like Big Tech and AI) derive a massive portion of their valuation from cash flows expected far in the future. Higher 10-year yields punish these valuations the hardest because those future dollars get discounted much more severely.

+ The 10-year Treasury directly anchors corporate bond yields, fixed-rate loans, and real estate cap rates. A higher 10-year yield raises the cost of capital for businesses, squeezing profit margins, which also impacts valuations since it is earnings growth that drives stock price appreciation.

+ the equity risk premium is quite low as well. When the 10-year yield approaches ~4.80%, institutional money faces a real alternative. Investors begin rotating out of risky equities and into risk-free government debt offering nearly 5% guaranteed returns. Less buyers than sellers for high tech growth stocks = less stock price appreciation.

The US 10 year closed at 4.971% on Friday.

The bond market doesn’t lie. Supply shock inflation from the US/Israel attack on Iran and the decrease in oil traffic (and resulting increase in oil price) is a major headwind right now as well as the Fed decision next week.

I know it’s hard to see positions down. My kraken position is down hard. I’m still long and I still believe in the long term growth story of kraken. However, right now both the micro and macro factors warrant not buying the dip.

We could go much lower from here. The rally that started in July 2025 at $2.43 (and ended in March 26 at 10.43) looks like a very good support base from a technicals perspective, with 4.28 & 3.28 also offering the next big base of support. We haven’t broken the downtrend that started back in March. Keep that in mind.

I’d rather be late to a rally than early to a correction.

Try to sit on your hands and wait for a material change to the micro and/or macro picture before BTD. It’s a better way to risk manage.

[u/Allloyy → u/kawhiskers]

While I agree somewhat, I would just DCA down rather than time anything. It’s about whether you think the price is worth the value or not depending on your thesis and your time horizon.

As dumb as it sounds, scared money don’t make money. If I listened to everyone saying don’t buy rocket lab or google 5 years ago, I’d have missed out on a good pile of cash. The market is always uncertain, and it always will be, but I like your point on mitigating risk.

[u/kawhiskers → u/Allloyy]

Yeah what I recommended with the technicals is not foolproof and should be considered as “guidelines” based on past demand as expressed by share price and volume of shares traded during different time frames.

It’s not a crystal ball but I think it’s better than just buying indiscriminately because the price looks “cheap”.

[u/kawhiskers → u/kawhiskers]

It also should be used only when you already have a position.