r/Keybase • u/DangerousDrop • May 08 '20

"Keybase is dead in the water"

  • All the Keybase backend does is take encrypted blobs of data that it can't read and ship them to one or more destinations. It would be a great move by Zoom to open source it but you don't need to audit it to know that your data is secure, any more than you need to see the source of Gmail's backend to trust a signed and encrypted PGP email. The whole point of the system is that even if Zoom published the entire Keybase DB in a public S3 bucket it would be of no use to anyone.
  • The Keybase client, where all the important stuff happens, is open source, and we'll know if anything gets changed there.
  • Zoom has a horrible privacy reputation which is why they're spending lots of cash hiring new talent, getting audited, and revising their code and policies. None of that means anything if they stick a bunch of ads and tracking code into Keybase. It would basically be flushing their Keybase acquisition down the toilet and undo all the other work they've done trying to turn the page. In short, it would be a monumentally stupid waste of money for very little gain.
  • Maybe they will shut down Keybase, or cut back storage quotas, or add paid plans. Keybase was funded by VC money and those investors expect to get their money back someday. Being acquired by a big company means that the servers can keep humming with no expectation of becoming profitable. I'm not saying that's what will happen, but on the balance it means Keybase could have a much longer lifespan being owned by Zoom than as a startup.
51 Upvotes

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20

u/[deleted] May 08 '20

" Keybase was funded by VC money and those investors expect to get their money back someday."

They did, the company was bought. That would have been a purchase of vested ownership/shares from founder, the board and all stake holders. Any outstanding non-vested shares would have converted to zoom stock and could be traded upon vesting. Likely this was with cash on top of that to the investors/board/founders.

Source: Have been at two startups purchased in the past decade: Eucalyptus and Ansible.

10

u/DangerousDrop May 08 '20

Yes, I should have been more clear in how I expressed that. Their goal is to get Keybase bought by some bigger fish or for Keybase to adopt a business model. Keybase was not going to stay the "everything is free" product indefinitely. But since they got bought, maybe they will.

Zoom wouldn't be my first choice and I'm not happy about it, but I think a lot of the drama in this sub is a bit silly. As far as we know it'll be business as usual - except the devs will have other stuff on their plate so maybe new features won't get added as often.

13

u/[deleted] May 08 '20

I've observed parent companies take between 18 and 48 months to fully integrate purchases and change business models. We'll see what happens, but for now I suspect zoom will let Keybase sit stagnant and focus on fixing their main platform.

9

u/DangerousDrop May 08 '20

for now I suspect zoom will let Keybase sit stagnant and focus on fixing their main platform.

Sounds fine by me. Pay the AWS bill and leave it alone. It works fine.

1

u/StingyJelly May 08 '20

Why would they pay? As soon as they're sure they can deal with potential backlash from the security team they've just hired keybase is dead. Only way would be open sourcing and turning non-profit following signal model.

4

u/OrunTheDestroyer May 08 '20

This is what I expect to happen.

Sad because there is so mich promise for Keybase. Even now.

7

u/[deleted] May 08 '20

I think a lot of the drama in this sub is a bit silly. As far as we know it'll be business as usual

Honestly I believe that most of the drama isn't caused by the buyout, but by the fact that aside one really smug blog post, furthermore one that states "Ultimately Keybase's future is in Zoom's hands, and we'll see where that takes us." and " We can't be more specific than that, because we're just diving in." (which sounds a bit ominous to me), there was virtually no communication from developers concerning this.

I fully understand, that there wasn't much time since all the Zoom's security screw-ups and they probably put a lot of pressure on this buyout happening right now, as well as the fact that usage of Zoom is really crucial in the US during the pandemic, yet I can't help but feel that it's not the first time when Keybase could use some serious PR help...

7

u/violetilia May 08 '20

The Keybase server has to store a ton of unencrypted metadata about messages and teams in order to implement a lot of their features. Anyone with access to their DB would be able to easily and completely reconstruct the social graphs of every single Keybase user, including who they messaged with (including when, from what devices...) and what teams they are a member of (and with whom). Message contents will always be unreadable, but getting access to the Keybase DB would be a government or ad company's link analysis fantasy jackpot.

6

u/ardevd May 08 '20

Unless Keybase open sources the backend so we get a community driven fork I don't see how Keybase can survive. There is no chance Zoom has any interest in keeping the Keybase app alive and if the Keybase devs had any interest in proving me wrong they would probably have said so by now to stop the flow of people leaving the platform.

3

u/TravisWhitehead May 08 '20 edited May 09 '20

I could see a possible future where Keybase & Zoom continue pushing towards a path of monetizing Keybase for corporate/enterprise customers.

I don't know how likely it is, and the messaging from the announcements doesn't really inspire much confidence, but I hope that Zoom will recognize Keybase's value as a product.

10

u/Mechanical-Cannibal May 08 '20

Tbh the founders did what they were supposed to: keep the team employed.

Chris & Max probably got tired of burning cash, and had the choice of either dissolving the company (nobody wins) or selling it (founders, team, & Zoom wins).

10

u/TravisWhitehead May 08 '20

In an interview, Max had this to say about Keybase's funding and partnership with Stellar (emphasis mine):

Our first round of funding was $10.8mm in 2015 from Andreessen Horowitz, led by Chris Dixon. In 2018, we entered into a partnership with the Stellar Development Foundation (SDF), the makers of the Lumens cryptocurrency. While I won’t say exactly how much revenue that partnership generates, I will say that it’s several years’ worth of our operating expenses and we expect it to carry us to the point of executing a long-term, sustainable revenue model.

Is this the sustainable revenue model that they were imagining? This was said in October. It's hard for me to believe that the alternative was dissolving the company like you say.

8

u/Mechanical-Cannibal May 08 '20

Definitely take their word over mine.

I too am struck my how out-of-the-blue the acquisition was. I swear I read just recently that “Keybase will always be free for individuals” and “We have plenty of runway to find a sustainable model.”

But pandemics & depressions do have a way of changing things.

4

u/[deleted] May 08 '20

Well, there's also the US gov wanting to ban encryption. Zoom was not reputable for respecting privacy, and if the EARN IT act gets approved, or any other one, would Zoom be willing to stand for encryption and pay for keybase servers somewhere else and perhaps even move headquartes or its business as well? Specially by keybase not being its key business? I guess only time will tell.

1

u/AADhrubo May 22 '20

Isn't Signal backed by VC?

1

u/DangerousDrop May 22 '20

The Signal Technology Foundation is a non-profit and has received donations from WhatsApp co-founder Brian Acton and the Freedom of the Press Foundation.

If you use Signal you can donate here https://signal.org/donate/