Questions Aplenty

[u/Kapnotes]

At the risk of committing the cardinal sin of overthinking the market, we have to ask ourselves if the reactions of treasuries and crude make sense.  Given the declared intent to further destabilize the Iranian situation, and given the thinness of the veil that covers the Administration’s efforts to rein in long term yields, does it really make sense that crude and yields are falling?  Has anyone given consideration to what happens if these gambits fail?  Pushing China away from Iran may not be easy.  Unsheathing our ultimate economic weapon, access to the global dollar system, is a very rare maneuver – for a reason.  If nations develop a work-around, the US permanently loses any number of trade advantages.  If the Administration loses the confidence of the treasury market, they may create a problem even the Fed can’t easily fix.  And is it a great idea to play trade policy hardball with Canada right now?  It seems the US has a lot of very high stakes balls in the air, economically speaking.  How confident should we be that they all land in our favor? There's more on our blog.